If we vote to Remain what happens?

michaels

HornetSaver wrote: »

Very reluctant to start a third thread on a two option question, so I'll try to cover it here. I'm interested to get people's opinions on the political situation if England were to narrowly vote leave but the other three countries meant the UK overall voted to remain.

Obviously the result would be respected whether England got its way or not. But I'm talking about the impact on the state of the union, how individual parties come out of it, what English, Welsh, Scottish (unionist and nationalist) and Northern Irish (unionist and republican) voters would make of it. Would put Tories on both sides of the EU referendum in a very interesting position, I'd have thought?

I think it is an interesting question, especially if it were leave would have won except for Scotland although that also puts us in the very narrow stay victory territory which most will try to ignore the closeness and look only at the result but the tory parry won't be able to.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

They do, why do you think we cannot manage just as well as Germany from within the EU?

All I said was that the free trade with 187 nations would not be easy to negotiate quickly. You seem to think it is easy peasy?

I see no problem with the WTO tariffs as a solution. I just think the economy will suffer while we are doing this, while other nations have or are seeking free trade agreements. Why would Canada have a deal with the EU if it could rely on WTO tariffs. Why does the EU have an agreement with Mexico? Why is the US concluding an agreement with Pacific rim nations? Why does it belong to NAFTA? Why would they not rely on the WTO?

I fully accept that you and many other of the 'remain' camp, passionately believe that the leaders of the EU will be prepared to stamp on their own people to get a sort of revenge on the UK.
I'm not so sure.However, given their track record of putting politics and dogma before the welfare of the european people, you may be right but equally it depends what political clout the losers have. Maybe revolting French farmers may be our friends.

However, whatever the attitude of the EU leader, other countries many not be so keen to lose trade and profit and jobs and may seek an accommodation to mutual benefit.

To my mind it is an entirely different matter to encourage more trade compared to deliberately terminating existing trade to the harm of your own people.

Filo25

HornetSaver wrote: »

Very reluctant to start a third thread on a two option question, so I'll try to cover it here. I'm interested to get people's opinions on the political situation if England were to narrowly vote leave but the other three countries meant the UK overall voted to remain.

Obviously the result would be respected whether England got its way or not. But I'm talking about the impact on the state of the union, how individual parties come out of it, what English, Welsh, Scottish (unionist and nationalist) and Northern Irish (unionist and republican) voters would make of it. Would put Tories on both sides of the EU referendum in a very interesting position, I'd have thought?

Scotland is the major issue obviously, while I am no fan of the SNP, I think they would be within their rights to request a second referendum if Scotland voted to stay in the EU by a significant margin (which all the polling indicates they will) and the UK as a whole votes to leave, which is far from impossible.

That's actually a much more favourable scenario for Scotland to leave the UK than their last vote was as well, given the circumstances I suspect they would have much less difficulty negotiating entry into the EU, and if they go for their original plan of low corporation Tax combined with EU membership I suspect they may be an attractive destination for inward investment that might currently end up in the UK.

For Northern Ireland, its an odd situation all round , even though the area benefits significantly from EU funding the largest unionist party is supporting Brexit (there is more than a hint of xenophobia about that decision), the rest of the parties are largely supporting the Remain camp I believe, ultimately a vote to leave would be unlikely to impact any vote to remain part of the UK but it may have implications for the Peace Process there.

Online polling on Wales seems to show a pretty close race between Leave and Remain, so once again probably no real impact on the future of Wales as part of the UK.

BobQ

HornetSaver wrote: »

Very reluctant to start a third thread on a two option question, so I'll try to cover it here. I'm interested to get people's opinions on the political situation if England were to narrowly vote leave but the other three countries meant the UK overall voted to remain.

Obviously the result would be respected whether England got its way or not. But I'm talking about the impact on the state of the union, how individual parties come out of it, what English, Welsh, Scottish (unionist and nationalist) and Northern Irish (unionist and republican) voters would make of it. Would put Tories on both sides of the EU referendum in a very interesting position, I'd have thought?

The demands for Scottish independence and a further referendum on that would grow and be difficult to refuse.

The interaction between NI and Ireland would find the inevitable border controls, tariffs etc intolerable. There would be increasing pressure on Ireland to join Schengen since they will have to have a UK border. I suspect there would be demands for Irish unification.

Overall, those who want a smaller and more inward looking UK would get their wish.

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

I fully accept that you and many other of the 'remain' camp, passionately believe that the leaders of the EU will be prepared to stamp on their own people to get a sort of revenge on the UK.
I'm not so sure.However, given their track record of putting politics and dogma before the welfare of the european people, you may be right but equally it depends what political clout the losers have. Maybe revolting French farmers may be our friends.

However, whatever the attitude of the EU leader, other countries many not be so keen to lose trade and profit and jobs and may seek an accommodation to mutual benefit.

To my mind it is an entirely different matter to encourage more trade compared to deliberately terminating existing trade to the harm of your own people.

Were you replying to another post? Your post seems unconnected with my post that you quote.

I note that you offer no answers to the questions I asked.

Filo25

BobQ wrote: »

Were you replying to another post? Your post seems unconnected with my post that you quote.

I note that you offer no answers to the questions I asked.

Those aren't altogether uncommon events Bob

Generali

BobQ wrote: »

The demands for Scottish independence and a further referendum on that would grow and be difficult to refuse.

Why?

- The potential EU referendum was known about when the Scottish referendum was voted upon.
- Scotland doesn't get a veto over UK policy.
- The referendum was meant to settle things for a generation not until the next time Mr Salmond got the hump.

It's a joke. Don't the Unionists that are the majority of Scots have any rights in all this? Are they to be subjected to vote after vote until the Nationalists fluke a win and drag 49.9% of people out of their own country?

Screw the Nats. They lost, let them rot.

BobQ

Generali wrote: »

Why?

- The potential EU referendum was known about when the Scottish referendum was voted upon.
- Scotland doesn't get a veto over UK policy.
- The referendum was meant to settle things for a generation not until the next time Mr Salmond got the hump.

It's a joke. Don't the Unionists that are the majority of Scots have any rights in all this? Are they to be subjected to vote after vote until the Nationalists fluke a win and drag 49.9% of people out of their own country?

Screw the Nats. They lost, let them rot.

Ugh I seem to have answered a different question to what was asked - Claptonesque!

If the UK voted to remain but the English voted to leave. I doubt much would change. There would be enough in England who were relived that the Scots, Welsh and NIrish saved us from the madness.

The question I answered (which is more of a concern I suggest) is if England voted to leave but the other three principalities voted to remain, with an overall vote to Leave. I think that would have consequences in Scotland in particular. During the Independence Referendum, all parties seemed to agree that staying in the EU was important and very few thought that the EU Referendum would lead to Brexit. If it does, based on comments made in the Scottish Referendum, I can see demands for another. Legally the UK Government can refuse but if there is strong popular demand they will have a case.

HornetSaver

BobQ wrote: »

The question I answered (which is more of a concern I suggest) is if England voted to leave but the other three principalities voted to remain, with an overall vote to Leave.

They're both interesting questions, but the outcome of the one you answered seems a bit more well-defined.

It seems quite obvious that Brexit will trigger another Scottish referendum (I'm not saying I agree with asking the same question multiple times, I'm just pragmatic enough to accept that Brexit against Scotland's wishes is a big enough reason for the nationalists to shout "game-changer" and be taken seriously. Far more significant than the Prime Minister wearing a blue rosette on results night instead of a red one).

It seems equally obvious that the Irish border would be reinforced, and history shows us that a change in the relationship between Britain and Ireland is more often than not a bad thing for the North.

Finally it seems clear that (for all the post-mortem talk there will inevitably be) England and Wales will essentially get on with the hand they've been dealt with.

Moby

Its patently obvious a vote to leave in England would trigger another referendum in Scotland. Brexiteers need to be careful the Union is very fragile!