The Next Nail in the Coffin

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

assuming the continued immigration into London, then per capita living space will fall and property prices will rise.

all the existing people in london will be the poorer.

sadly the turkeys will probably vote for christmas

~25% of London lives in social homes they wont be worse or better off

~50% own. They will be better off

~25% rent privately. A lot of this group would be no better off in a HPC as they cant afford to buy even with a one third off crash. Also some of them will have parents in the better off own group


So overall, if its house prices you are on about. Most people in London gain from increasing prices then the next biggest group are neutral then a small group of 5-10% would gain.

cells

I wonder if the UK was a federal type system with 11 regions how each region would vote? Presumably Scotland Wales and NI would be a strong remain but how would the regions vote? London as a guess would be a strong remain.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

~25% of London lives in social homes they wont be worse or better off

~50% own. They will be better off

~25% rent privately. A lot of this group would be no better off in a HPC as they cant afford to buy even with a one third off crash. Also some of them will have parents in the better off own group


So overall, if its house prices you are on about. Most people in London gain from increasing prices then the next biggest group are neutral then a small group of 5-10% would gain.

As always obsessed with price and nothing else. You know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Do tell me, if there is little new building but 100,000 more people per year where do they all live?
Do they all have the same per capita amount of space as before?
The people whose house price rise but still live there, do NOT gain anything and indeed may be losers as they may lose their children to distance parts.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

I wonder if the UK was a federal type system with 11 regions how each region would vote? Presumably Scotland Wales and NI would be a strong remain but how would the regions vote? London as a guess would be a strong remain.

London probably will vote to remain : young turkeys voting for Christmas but that is democracy and sadly youth new think they will age.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

As always obsessed with price and nothing else. You know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

Do tell me, if there is little new building but 100,000 more people per year where do they all live?
Do they all have the same per capita amount of space as before?
The people whose house price rise but still live there, do NOT gain anything and indeed may be losers as they may lose their children to distance parts.

why not ask Londoners if they are better or worse off than say 20 years ago?

You can also ask the good people of stoke or Middlesbrough the same question (population decline)

Also it looks like London might be getting its act together. I recall reading one of the planning websites and the number of planning permissions granted last year was quite good. I dont recall if it was over 50k or 60k but thats a lot better than the 20-25k build rates of most the last decade.

Mistermeaner

I live about 40mins from stoke. Its a hole. The best thing about it is the motorway that takes you past it quickly (and the a500 if you're going to Nottingham or Alton towers) and even they don't work well. The kids like waterworks though.

London I visit frequently for work and pleasure. Too crowded expensive and busy for me to want to live there but so easily accessible there's really no need to. Its 2 hrs from my front door to the office in Knightsbridge.

Living in London is a choice IMO and if you don't like all those horrible migrants you can move. My house costs about 20% of what it would within the m25 and I have nice schools, lots of open country and a waitrose on my doorstep.

Just some facts

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

London probably will vote to remain : young turkeys voting for Christmas but that is democracy and sadly youth new think they will age.

Doesn't it make you question your logic, though?

The 'turkeys' are the ones living in and amongst this supposed mass immigration problem and you're right, they will most likely to vote remain. Surely that tells you that on balance, the people who are most exposed to what you consider a major EU problem, don't consider it a problem? Or at the very least, think on balance the problem is worth the benefits?

westernpromise

economic wrote: »

how much of a correction? i just bought....

I don't really think of it in exactly that way. I'm 2 years into a 10-year fix, so all I have to care about is the equity position in 8 years' time, when I can sell or remortgage without penalty. In 8 years I'll have paid off 2/3rds of the mortgage. What I still owe on it will be about 14% of my house's current value. So as long any correction is less than 86% from the current value, I'll still have equity in the house in 2024, which will mean I can move house if I want or need to.

I am pretty sure we won't see an 86% fall from here by 2024.

I'd counsel you to think about it more that way, because decisionwise, what's done is done; you can't buy a different house, you can't un-buy and then re-buy at a different time, so you are where you are. I think you said you were on a 5-year fix? If so, you'll have paid off ~15% of the mortgage at the end of that fix. If you put down say a 10% deposit as well, then you can withstand a 25% nominal fall by 2021, from whatever you paid in 2016.

Yes you'd lose your equity if that happened, but equity's just inflation, so if your house is deflating, so is the one you want to buy.

The longer it takes for this correction to arrive, the bigger it can be. If your place inflates by another 5% this year, then you can withstand a 30% correction from the 2017 price. If it inflates by 10% over the next 3 years then you'll be able to withstand a fall of 35% from the 2019 price. And so on.

The huge, huge difference between now and past times re negative equity is that in 1990, you had people on fixed mortgage rates of 12%, 15% and even more. These meant that over 5 years, you paid off a pitiful two per cent of the mortgage. So if you paid £100k for a London flat in 1989, which was right at the top, then by 1994 it was worth £65k - but you still owed £98k on it.

If you missed just two monthly payments out of the first sixty, those two months' arrears would be more than what you had repaid.

Part of why it took the market so long to turn around from 1989 to 1995 was that many people couldn't sell until 1999. They were standing still in terms of paying down their mortgage, so they needed prices to rise to get them out of the hole. But prices couldn't rise, because that requires a surge in demand, and there wasn't any surge because everyone who would have been the surge was in negative equity and couldn't sell.

Because fixed rate debt can be paid down so fast, I'd expect any price dips to be shorter-lived than before. If price topped out in 2019 and there were a 35% fall, you would still be able to go bargain-hunting again in 2021.

Thrugelmir

CLAPTON wrote: »

Do tell me, if there is little new building but 100,000 more people per year where do they all live?
.

Plenty of building and lots of unsold property. Guess that investors (i.e. the Chinese) are looking elsewhere for better value. Heard that interest in Brighton has risen by 700% this year.

westernpromise

Mistermeaner wrote: »

I live about 40mins from stoke. Its a hole. The best thing about it is the motorway that takes you past it quickly (and the a500 if you're going to Nottingham or Alton towers) and even they don't work well. The kids like waterworks though.

London I visit frequently for work and pleasure. Too crowded expensive and busy for me to want to live there but so easily accessible there's really no need to. Its 2 hrs from my front door to the office in Knightsbridge.

Living in London is a choice IMO and if you don't like all those horrible migrants you can move. My house costs about 20% of what it would within the m25 and I have nice schools, lots of open country and a waitrose on my doorstep.

Just some facts

I used to live in Little Haywood and I called on customers in Stoke. The A51 past Stone and the A34 were a nice burn, but then you turned right onto the A500 and already by the time you were passing Fenton the sh!tty was turned up to 11. I did some really good business there and found the people a genuinely nice and cheery crowd, but by God they had some adversity to keep smiling in the face of.

I'd live in that area again, or maybe more south Staffs / east Shropshire, but not as a main home - not enough happening.