The Next Nail in the Coffin

Crashy_Time

Conrad wrote: »

Because those that got well into property after entering the work place are now those contemporaries of mine sitting very pretty indeed, often retired by 50.

Just ordinary folk that got stuck in and didn't sit about frightening themselves to death over future economics.


I've had many LL clients, I think none ever went belly up in the way your lot implies is virtually an inevitability.


No silver back ever won his harem by fretting about getting a thorn in his foot my dear chap.

Nice prep talk for the BTL seminars you probably went to in the 90`s but woefully out of touch now (hence the reason I mentioned your main forum posts) Many a fifty year old who bought BTL`s in the last ten years or so will be financially ruined after all the tax and global economics plays out IMO.

Crashy_Time

westernpromise wrote: »

20 years ago there was no shortage of people to tell you property was about to crash again. Those whio bought in 1996 took on a risk in doing so, given that there was widespread and voluble negative sentiment around property just 7 years after the start of an epic crash.

The same crashtrolls are now telling the same owners that they took no risk at all and were just lucky. After 20 years of hearing this, you tend to discount the views of such people.

Mmmm...do you, or do you take to the internet instead to bang on about it day after day after day? :rotfl:

Conrad

mwpt wrote: »

Do you ever stop to wonder why or how it feels? There is a lot to be angry about with the UK housing market imo, particularly when you perceive the previous over-extended foolish who took prices away from you in the first place were bailed out. On top of that, the younger generation who never knew the good time years,

I totally get this perception, HOWEVER........


Take for example this opportunity; Just now I called Lanes new homes and have been informed of a site due for release in a few months time.


1 beds
Now a recent development of theirs was 50% sold to FTB's, just ordinary folk (I know this as fact)


That development is completing now. The buyers that paid deposits down a year ago have already made a £50k gain without having paid any mortgage so far!


The new development due for release will I'm sure offer the same opportunity.


In other words THERE IS still a world of opportunity out there, so there's just no point moaning about things. I can guarantee some of these buyers 20 years from now will be called LUCKY by the neg heads moaning in 2036


I'm not much of a risk taker but am wondering whether to reserve a number of these. A big risk as I could not afford to complete on them all but as long as the market stays buoyant one could make very easy money by just selling on the contract in 12 months before actual completion. I bet I wont risk more than 1 though

Conrad

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Nice prep talk for the BTL seminars you probably went to in the 90`s but woefully out of touch now (hence the reason I mentioned your main forum posts) Many a fifty year old who bought BTL`s in the last ten years or so will be financially ruined after all the tax and global economics plays out IMO.

I too was warned against B2L in about 1997, there was lots of talks of another recession looming, THERE ALWAYS IS. I put it off to my great cost.
I then got into B2L between about 2002 and 2006, but then sold all in 2007 (I really did), but again this cost me in the round. Neg-heads always get it wrong.


Point is, these recessions do not harm most people property wise and we have more up years than down in property terms over time.


How will we be ruined? I have low LTV's, tenants paying nearly 4 x the interest only sum, I can always sell stock as and when, plus I have other savings behind me. You have a very oblique view of the reality of LL's. The majority are canny and plan well


We can always diversify maybe into commercial or even development if buy to let ever became irrational, although I doubt it will as markets correct themselves - if letting becomes too onerous, fewer will do it and so rents will rise etc

Conrad

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/fears-over-luxury-property-bubble-spread-to-city-as-flat-prices-slashed-a3220056.html


Love the cranes in the picture, so ironic. (Yes, I know they have gone up a million % since Christmas and 30% is a "drop in the ocean", but sentiment is everything in this market, every little helps!)

Well I wouldn't buy there as I do perceive a current glut, but again I've known people buy in places like this and on the East Thames area in 07/08 and have still gone on to make terrific gains

Perhaps buying now is a good call in the scheme of massive rising population over the next decade?

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

I'd replace fate with chance.


Most people's skills involve little more than having chosen to drink when led to water. The frustration is so many choose to bum water off the rest of us when there's a well stRing them in the face.

Of course luck and chance play a big part but none the less most of have chances but for whatever reason some take the plunge and others don't, that's just Humanity.


I'd always suggest replace ones frustration (I've had my fill of it) with positive action. If you do what you've always done you'll get what you've always got.


I'm not naturally positive but I force myself to do things which always give me a bad gut feel at the time, but that later have make a big difference for the better, and once you get going it's funny how other opportunity then arises out of this

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/fears-over-luxury-property-bubble-spread-to-city-as-flat-prices-slashed-a3220056.html


Love the cranes in the picture, so ironic. (Yes, I know they have gone up a million % since Christmas and 30% is a "drop in the ocean", but sentiment is everything in this market, every little helps!)

They're getting excited in the crazy club. In the HPC is prime London crashing thread someone has posted 'it's started'. What are these places going for now given there's been daily evidence provided of the said crash everyday day for more than two years.

News of a 3% quarterly increase in the Halifax index meanwhile has gone done like a lead balloon.

By now a prime London flat in Mayfair must cost less than a grotty two bed in Rodney Place in E17.

economic

westernpromise wrote: »

Over a 10 year horizon I'd expect prices to be higher than today's with probably an episode within that span when they are lower. We're getting due for a routine correction.

how much of a correction? i just bought....

cells

For all the talk of nails and coffins does anyone want to post their crystal ball predictions?

I think London will be up >10% over the next 3 years perhaps as much as 20%

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

For all the talk of nails and coffins does anyone want to post their crystal ball predictions?

I think London will be up >10% over the next 3 years perhaps as much as 20%

assuming the continued immigration into London, then per capita living space will fall and property prices will rise.

all the existing people in london will be the poorer.

sadly the turkeys will probably vote for christmas