The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

*You've all done well over the last few decades convincing Scots that they cannot possibly survive by constantly pointing out how poor Scotland is. But thankfully more and more people are now waking up and discounting arguments which ONLY ever concentrate on negative outcomes and ONLY for Scotland. Almost as if rUK will sail merrily on into hard Brexitland unscathed with little consequence. They do this by simply checking out the facts for themselves ( see the NHS figures above for a prime example of spin sucked in parroted back by the gullible ).. rather than relying on vested interests.

Independence has economic consequences of course, just like Brexit does for both Scotland and the rUK. But lets get away from pretending that it's all one way. However, the political case for the Union is now dead ( and certainly will be buried on 9th June ). The economic case for remaining in a UK outwith the EU and Single Market has not been made yet.

I suggest if you do not want Scotland to leave the UK, then you get on and start making it.. instead of concentrating on tired old tropes from the past. You do not have to convince Scots voters of the economic arguments of the past, those already did the job in Sept 14. You now need to start convincing them of sound and credible future ones from 2019 onwards.

Get on with it. Time is short.

*Westminster, other political parties, people on forums and commenting in general. Not you personally.

The trade statistics are from the Scottish government.

64% with the rest of the UK, 11% with the EU. A bad deal between the UK and the EU, and it's better for Scotland to stay in the UK.

The deficit, running around 10% GDP in Scotland?

TFEU article 139 and 140 mean that rejoining the EU would require Eurozone membership, which requires compliance with the European Fiscal Compact (no more than a 3% deficit).

I could go on and on, but we've been over this before so I really don't know why you're ignoring it all and coming out with this...

It's not on people who want to maintain the union to argue for it. It's for the sensible to tell the foolish that independence is a fools errand at the moment. I've always said Scotland should get its house in order before moving for independence. You go off half cocked as most of you appear to want to and you're just asking to make people poor.

TrickyTree83

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

A fantastic example of a headline manipulating from statistics.

Scotland's deficit is of course not twice as large as the whole of the UK

As a proportion of GDP... no, it's more than twice.

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Or do you want to talk about (for example) the oil and gas reserves; how is their value holding up?

If you insist...
Crude oil from lows around $27/bbl early 2016 to around $55/bbl currently.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

A fantastic example of a headline manipulating from statistics.

Scotland's deficit is of course not twice as large as the whole of the UK

A fantastic example of denial and manipulation of words.

Scotland's deficit is indeed twice that of the whole UK - as a percentage.
Very widely reported, too.
From the same source:

Scotland’s deficit reached £14.9bn in 2014/15, up from £13.4bn in the previous financial year. The figure amounts to 9.7 per cent of Scottish GDP, compared with the overall UK deficit of 4.9 per cent of GDP.

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

As a proportion of GDP... no, it's more than twice.

Percentage of GDP is nowhere shown in the headline, hence my post.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

mayonnaise wrote: »

If you insist...
Crude oil from lows around $27/bbl early 2016 to around $55/bbl currently.

No poop Sherlock - though as usual you did not answer the question.
Because I note you did not tell us how that compares to the $110+/bbl for mid 2014 that the figures shown in the link equate to now.

IveSeenTheLight

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

A fantastic example of denial and manipulation of words.

Scotland's deficit is indeed twice that of the whole UK - as a percentage.
Very widely reported, too.
From the same source:

There's no denial and it was not my manipulation.
Be careful what you read and make sure you understand the context.

TrickyTree83

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

A fantastic example of denial and manipulation of words.

Scotland's deficit is indeed twice that of the whole UK - as a percentage.
Very widely reported, too.
From the same source:

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/

2.2% (forecast) according to the OBR and in the most recent budget numbers were healthier than expected iirc.

Edit: oh and "In 2015-16 net borrowing was £71.7 billion. (3.8% of GDP)", so it's more than twice the UK deficit in Scotland and presumably getting worse as the economy is contracting thanks to the SNP and the pro-indy brigade constantly threatening business with independence.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The trade statistics are from the Scottish government.

64% with the rest of the UK, 11% with the EU. A bad deal between the UK and the EU, and it's better for Scotland to stay in the UK.

The deficit, running around 10% GDP in Scotland?

TFEU article 139 and 140 mean that rejoining the EU would require Eurozone membership, which requires compliance with the European Fiscal Compact (no more than a 3% deficit).

I could go on and on, but we've been over this before so I really don't know why you're ignoring it all and coming out with this...

It's not on people who want to maintain the union to argue for it. It's for the sensible to tell the foolish that independence is a fools errand at the moment. I've always said Scotland should get its house in order before moving for independence. You got off half cocked as most of you appear to want to and you're just asking to make people poor.

The Trade figures are estimated, we've already been through this too. Too many UK headquarters mean reliable figures are hard to come by since they don't do Scotland only. But it's not the point.

The economic arguments you present are all null and void after 2019. Because the UK's economic position and trade is now an unknown. Brexit is going to cost. And you're going to have to start selling the economic advantages to an electorate which was already nearly half way out of the UK,on the political arguments alone, before any Brexit vote even happened.

So far all May has presented is the possible ways in which she can limit the damage of Brexit. No one still is quite sure even WHY we are leaving on economic grounds other than people voted for it. Do you ? Because if you do you really, really need to start selling them all to a very skeptical Scotland. Otherwise Sturgeon is going to turn the tables big time on the economics come 2019.

How does leaving the EU and/or the Single Market advantage Scotland economically ? That's after all what Davidson is going to have to sell during her next few weeks chapping doors. And so far she's been pretty clueless. Maybe you could enlighten her ?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Listen, I'm not going there as I've long time advocated that there will be a short term cost to independence.

I'm all for living within our means and truly believe we should not be running a deficit.

After that initial period however, I am still be be convinced why full autonomy is not the best way for representing the Scottish electorate.

Its like your advocating we are the "Benefit Street" of the UK and you don't want to move away from being on benefits

No, you won't go there because there is no answer without a significant decrease in our current standard of living.

If you're all for living within means you could at least make some attempt to say how?

I said before that I am pro independence.
The difference however is that I can see no way to achieve this without significant and long-term cuts to our current standard of living.
There's a difference to being the "benefit street" of the UK and bankruptcy; ask a Greek.