The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

CLAPTON

sss555s wrote: »

Scotland as a region has the second largest GVA (behind London) in the UK.

Why should it be worse for Scotland (long term) than the UK?

I can only see things getting worse for Scotland (long term) if they remain.

TT83, Did you vote to leave the EU?

sadly the scots voters didn't agree

but next time .............

TrickyTree83

CLAPTON wrote: »

sadly the scots voters didn't agree

but next time .............

Don't worry, it's more pie in the sky WoS rubbish.

It doesn't seem to sink in that a region of ~55m people can contribute significantly more to the UK than a region of ~5m.

sss555s

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Don't worry, it's more pie in the sky WoS rubbish.

It doesn't seem to sink in that a region of ~55m people can contribute significantly more to the UK than a region of ~5m.

By your logic, India would be the second richest country in the World. I was talking per head in each region...

sss555s

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Is that from WoS?

No it's not from WoS

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

And yes I did vote to leave the EU.

So you will understand when rules made in a far away place don't seem relevant or suitable in your locality.

TrickyTree83

sss555s wrote: »

By your logic, India would be the second richest country in the World. I was talking per head in each region...

Scotland actually isn't 2nd, the South East is, on the per head indices you can see that more clearly. All this demonstrates is that a large geographical area (Scotland) has done well out of being in the UK, with Glasgow enjoying significant growth. Why would you risk this for 11% of trade with the single market? Surely this bolsters the argument against independence.

Why is the logic twisted according to you?

How else should the data be interpreted?

It's quite obvious that Scottish growth is down to domestic and non EU trade increase.

TrickyTree83

sss555s wrote: »

No it's not from WoS






So you will understand when rules made in a far away place don't seem relevant or suitable in your locality.

Except the evidence is that Scotland does do well from the UK. When only 11% can be attributed to the EU, what other explanation is there for Glasgow growing well when trade with the EU has been falling in recent years?

CLAPTON

sss555s wrote: »

No it's not from WoS






So you will understand when rules made in a far away place don't seem relevant or suitable in your locality.

I wouldn't think that Berlin is much nearer than London.

sss555s

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Except the evidence is that Scotland does do well from the UK. When only 11% can be attributed to the EU, what other explanation is there for Glasgow growing well when trade with the EU has been falling in recent years?

Those percentages could change either way, given time, with an independent Scotland. I think Scotland could manage better by itself for itself, just like you think the UK can manage better by itself.

CLAPTON wrote: »

I wouldn't think that Berlin is much nearer than London.

Let's call is Brussels, and there's not much in it

Evidence shows that the majority of Scots would rather remain in the EU than not.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Except the evidence is that Scotland does do well from the UK. When only 11% can be attributed to the EU, what other explanation is there for Glasgow growing well when trade with the EU has been falling in recent years?

As per sss555s post. It's because the oft quoted Scotland v's the rest of the UK isn't a fair comparison. A few SE regions but mostly London up the average so much that it skews the data massively. Especially when transposed to a Scotland/rUK basis, rather than a region by region basis.

That map is from the ONS.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

How it is for the UK isn't what is being asked. Plus however bad the UK does expect Scotland to do worse. That's the position you're putting yourselves in.

We're interdependent as we're currently in political and fiscal union. Imagine what would happen to Greece if they pulled away from the Euro and the EU and went back to the Drachma, and that's going to be close to what you'll see in Scotland in terms of debt : GDP and year on year deficit. Some would say Greece would prosper under the Drachma, but only by devaluing her currency drastically would they be able to recover and then... eventually... after many years, begin to prosper.

The markets though.. what would happen there ? The below article was from 2014, but Jim Rogers was on the radio the other day saying exactly the same.

http://fortune.com/2014/09/17/scotland-uk-independence/

If Scotland's in for a rough time going independent, I think there are some considerations to be made over what effect that would have elsewhere in the UK economically. Especially with a Brexit already hammering the £. In short the UK, all of it, would be best going for a softer version of Brexit than the one the Tories are currently touting.