The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

Doesn't matter.

It's what the markets "deem acceptable" that matters. Ya know the one you approach to exercise your "borrowing capabilities".

Clue: 9.5% of GDP is too much.:)

I was asking Medium Jock but since you're here in your wisdom. How much would Scotland leaving the UK take off UK GDP and how would the UK's balance of trade look ?

Would that be a good thing for the 'markets' do you think ? On top of Brexit and a collapsing £ ?

Shakethedisease

The_Last_Username wrote: »

And I am interested in your thoughts on how a Scottish budget would play out.
I asked before Jock, too. (No offence intended, Jock.)

I posted those earlier in the thread. Loads of them, links to papers and articles. There's lots of work being done publically from places like Common Space and the Greens. The SNP for very obvious reasons aren't saying anything right now. Scottish Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives have no policies regarding independence again for obvious reasons.

Try a reading few papers here and the comments underneath under policy.. or look for Jim and Margaret Cuthbert papers online https://www.commonspace.scot/policy?page=1

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/8694/reformulating-economic-case-independence

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/8911/new-report-scottish-currency-options-post-brexit

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9221/5-things-you-should-know-about-our-new-report-division-assets-debts-independent

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9600/report-blueprint-scottish-national-investment-bank

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9140/gers-201516-debunked

Lots of work being done and ideas going forward from pro independence groups and entities. Independence isn't just about the SNP.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

The point about the 15 billion pounds, or thereabouts, is that an independent Scotland would be hit by that as a very real National deficit on Day 1, not having the UK to balance that particular shortfall for you. Of course it can be done by cutting spending and raising taxes but it would be a toughy: a long drawn-out toughy.

However in the UK no-one is hitting on Scotland to make good that 15 billion. Seems a pretty cushy deal to me. However if Scotland were to join the EU that 15 billion would provoke austerity demands from Herr Paymaster General ... Bang goes control of fiscal levers, bang goes the funding on some pet projects and bang goes the convenient excuse of blaming Westminster for everything. I guess the EU would have to take up that role.

I think everyone knows it would be a toughy. Long and drawn out who knows. 15 billion accurate on the day Scotland leaves after debt/asset negotiations who knows.

But the UK as things stand doesn't seem to be in any position nor have much of an interest in improving Scotland's economic matters any time soon. Indeed why would they. However, a hard Brexit on top of that is politically totally unacceptable to a lot of Scots. A mix of the two ?

wotsthat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No, you've just missed the point. Which is the current tendency of a lot of folks here and elsewhere to actively apportion blame to the Scottish Govt for running up a 15 billion pound deficit that it couldn't possibly have done. Right now, while as part of the UK.

If semantics were money you'd be able to make quite a dent into an independent Scotland's deficit.

The_Last_Username

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I posted those earlier in the thread. Loads of them, links to papers and articles. There's lots of work being done publically from places like Common Space and the Greens. The SNP for very obvious reasons aren't saying anything right now. Scottish Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives have no policies regarding independence again for obvious reasons.

Try a reading few papers here and the comments underneath under policy.. or look for Jim and Margaret Cuthbert papers online https://www.commonspace.scot/policy?page=1

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/8694/reformulating-economic-case-independence

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/8911/new-report-scottish-currency-options-post-brexit

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9221/5-things-you-should-know-about-our-new-report-division-assets-debts-independent

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9600/report-blueprint-scottish-national-investment-bank

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9140/gers-201516-debunked

Lots of work being done and ideas going forward from pro independence groups and entities. Independence isn't just about the SNP.

I have read those (and others) many times now.
What blether.
In other words (and as you say above) "who knows"?

It is farcical TBH that a political party professing a desire for independence cannot provide details of a proposed budget for that independence.
Nor can they say with confidence what currency they plan on using.

Well, more and more Scots are "wising-up" and questioning the lack of substance - as evidenced in this and other threads.
Continued waffle without hard evidence does nothing to improve that situation, so carry on.

ETA:
There are many, many sources from the IFS to George Kerevan himself questioning the lack of budgetary substance.
I know who I would believe before faceless internet forum posters.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/23/independent-scotland-10bn-black-hole-ifs-report-oil-prices

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-independence-would-bring-five-years-of-cuts-says-snp-mp-1-4181483

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/snp-scotland-cant-budget-wont-budget-1549820

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/13/scottish-budget-facing-deep-cuts-to-afford-snp-free-spending-ple/

http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-snp-do-not-want-full-fiscal-autonomy-in-scotland-2015-5

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I wasn't deflecting, I was just getting weary of the same 'Scottish govt has run up a deficit' nonsense. They can't, and never have been able to do so. End of story.

That's not right at all I'm afraid.

Because of Barnett funding it's very easy for Scotland to spend more than she earns. Barnett being linked to spending by others. Others spend more = Scotland gets more, whether you need it or not. This is factored in to WM planning when looking at budgets. Can't spend money on English people without sending more to the smaller grumpy regions.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html

If Scotland didn't want to add to the UK debt AND deficit (they are different things) then she could have chosen not to spend it. She did spend it as political promises must be upheld and who wouldn't want free tuition and prescriptions? So yes there is a deficit and a debt and Scotland having a lack of surplus causes the deficit I'm talking about. Taken as a proportion of Scottish GDP the statistics are horrendous. As part of the UK, it's not great but the nasty English are helping to make it work.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Well, how much of a deficit do you personally deem acceptable for any independent country with full tax, tax varying powers and borrowing capabilities these days ? This is a genuine question, I'd be interested in your thoughts.

Deficit? None! Ideally.

Deficit is different to debt. Continuous deficit = eventual collapse as the mountain of debt increases until you can no longer afford the interest payments alone.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I was asking Medium Jock but since you're here in your wisdom. How much would Scotland leaving the UK take off UK GDP and how would the UK's balance of trade look ?

Would that be a good thing for the 'markets' do you think ? On top of Brexit and a collapsing £ ?

How it is for the UK isn't what is being asked. Plus however bad the UK does expect Scotland to do worse. That's the position you're putting yourselves in.

We're interdependent as we're currently in political and fiscal union. Imagine what would happen to Greece if they pulled away from the Euro and the EU and went back to the Drachma, and that's going to be close to what you'll see in Scotland in terms of debt : GDP and year on year deficit. Some would say Greece would prosper under the Drachma, but only by devaluing her currency drastically would they be able to recover and then... eventually... after many years, begin to prosper.

sss555s

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

How it is for the UK isn't what is being asked. Plus however bad the UK does expect Scotland to do worse. That's the position you're putting yourselves in.

Scotland as a region has the second largest GVA (behind London) in the UK.

Why should it be worse for Scotland (long term) than the UK?

I can only see things getting worse for Scotland (long term) if they remain.

TT83, Did you vote to leave the EU?

TrickyTree83

sss555s wrote: »

Scotland as a region has the second largest GVA (behind London) in the UK.

Why should it be worse for Scotland (long term) than the UK?

I can only see things getting worse for Scotland (long term) if they remain.

TT83, Did you vote to leave the EU?

Is that from WoS?

Regional share of total GVA, 2014

And just in case the order of who contributes more was unclear:

London
South East
North West
East of England
Scotland
South West
West Midlands
Yorkshire and The Humber
East Midlands
Wales
North East
Northern Ireland
Extra-Regio

http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossvalueaddedgva/bulletins/regionalgrossvalueaddedincomeapproach/december2015

And yes I did vote to leave the EU.