The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Ok we seem to be stuck on this article 50 issue.

So let's try to clarify a few things.

England and Wales are not leaving the EU, neither are they leaving the union.

Yes. yes they are.

The UK is the EU member, always has been.

Agreed.

For Scotland to remain in the EU Scotland would need to be independent and the EU would need to accept Scotland as Scotland and not just part of the UK.

Agreed.

This is in the interests of the EU also because they will not want Scotland to inherit the deal the UK has which was long fought for. And not in the best interests of the EU.

They owe Scotland nothing.

So ? That doesn't answer why they wouldn't want Scotland to remain within it.You seem to think that the EU will actively go out of their way to block any Scottish membership. Yet have never said why this should be the case. I can't see one or what the problem you think is ?

It's not that I can't get my head around England and Wales leaving, it's the fact that it's the UK leaving. In law, it's the UK, in the EU it's the UK, and in the UK it's the UK. There is no place on earth where this idea of England and Wales leaving the EU exists except in the minds of those with a vested interest in that outcome.

The EU may well want Scotland to join, but what makes you believe it'll be on Scottish terms? What do you have that the EU so desperately needs that you'll get in straight away without checks and balances and without a vote on the matter?

Because it's Article 50 and not Articles 48/49 as in 2014. The UK wants to leave, but parts of the UK with mechanisms to leave the UK don't want to leave (NI and Scotland). There are indeed places on earth where England and Wales leaving the EU and Scotland/NI not doing so exist. The EU is probably one of them.

All the checks and balances are there already. Since Scotland is already a part of the EU and adheres to all criteria as part of the UK. And would still do so as an independent country. I'm not sure you get the fact that it's only England and Wales that are pursuing leaving via Article 50. No one else in the UK is.

Only on the fevered brows of arch unionism and the hysterics of the Daily Express would one honestly believe that the EU has any intention whatsoever of thwarting Scotland remaining where she is within the EU. Spain needs the fish. Westminster is no longer a factor, they're leaving anyway.

Mistermeaner

Scotland would need to adopt the euro and live within its means. It would need to raise tax and cut spending. Which is it?

Mistermeaner

the inability of pro-indi people on here to acknowledge in anyway the fact that Iscotland would be materially worse off than scotland in the union undermines any other arguments put forward

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes. yes they are.

Agreed.

Agreed.

So ? That doesn't answer why they wouldn't want Scotland to remain within it.You seem to think that the EU will actively go out of their way to block any Scottish membership. Yet have never said why this should be the case. I can't see one or what the problem you think is ?



Because it's Article 50 and not Articles 48/49 as in 2014. The UK wants to leave, but parts of the UK with mechanisms to leave the UK don't want to leave (NI and Scotland). There are indeed places on earth where England and Wales leaving the EU and Scotland/NI not doing so exist. The EU is probably one of them.

All the checks and balances are there already. Since Scotland is already a part of the EU and adheres to all criteria as part of the UK. And would still do so as an independent country. I'm not sure you get the fact that it's only England and Wales that are pursuing leaving via Article 50. No one else in the UK is.

Only on the fevered brows of arch unionism and the hysterics of the Daily Express would one honestly believe that the EU has any intention whatsoever of thwarting Scotland remaining where she is within the EU. Spain needs the fish. Westminster is no longer a factor, they're leaving anyway.

You're not getting it.

Don't read into what I'm saying. I'm not saying the EU will actively go out of its way at all. I'm not speaking with veiled insinuations, just straight talking, plain as day. It's not an attack on Scottish nationalism, it's just a statement about the situation.

Scotland does not have membership of the EU, there won't be a 'remain' situation unless current circumstances change - that is a hope and not currently on the table. Scotland may pass some checks and balances in order to join but others checks - as you've also pointed out - are unknown, such as the fiscal checks. These you cannot know until you are independent, unless GERS is indeed correct, or at least correct enough. In which case that raises questions about the economic case for leaving the UK, again.

So on the one hand you're saying the fiscal and economic issues are unknown, during conversation I then invite you to look at the probability of outcomes but then we get stuck in circles looking for £billions that cannot be found.

On the other hand you appear to think that Scotland will pass the EU's fiscal tests with flying colours and just hop on into the club despite having some of your fiscal checks in a situation worse than the Greeks.

Again, England and Wales are not leaving the UK. End of. They are part of the UK, England and Wales have no sovereignty, that rests with the UK parliament. The UK parliament will be enacting article 50. That means the UK will be terminating its EU membership. If Scotland is still part of the UK at that time, Scotland will also be taken out of the EU. If Scotland becomes independent, they can apply for EU membership, since they will be a brand new country and absolutely nothing at all to do with the remainder of the UK, who have terminated their membership.

When I point out that the EU owes Scotland nothing, if your books don't balance will the EU will risk adding another Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy into their club. The current fiscal predicament in the EU (very bad, see German & Italian banks) would lead me to believe that they would want you to be fiscally sound before they accept you into the club so they're not pumping bailout monies into Scotland too. This means you're open to veto's and also may not be allowed in until you've cut spending or increased taxation to balance the books to be allowed into the EU club, even before countries get petty about issues like encouraging separatist regions. I don't think fish is going to convince them to let you join if you need to borrow £billions every year to pay for what you're spending. There have been harsh sentences carried out on countries in the Eurozone who don't live within their means. They appear to be quite serious on this issue.

So with the economic questions either unresolved or pointing towards £billions in funding gaps and the EU situation far from clear that you'll actually be able to join let alone this fantasy 'remain' situation. The political situation at the moment such that it doesn't look like you're getting a referendum on independence any time soon (the PM said as much), it doesn't look like the public want one any time soon (recent polls) and the noises from the EU aren't exactly deafening overtures from the majority for Scottish accession to the EU but there is significant noise from people who want to remain in the UK.

Unlike the EU referendum I cannot see any positives for iScotland in the EU and not in the UK. I could see positives for the UK leaving the EU to join EFTA/EEA and strike our own trade deals. The full EU membership wasn't all its cracked up to be.

You want to make your own decisions, like a proper country, a poorer country, in the EU being told where you can fish, what you can sell, who you can trade with and at what cost, what cars you can drive, what your foreign policy will be, etc...etc... where is the benefit? Roaming charges? Visa free travel for holidays? They seem like meagre winnings for the pooling of sovereignty you've just fought so hard to get. Especially when the UK is devolving more power to Scotland and the EU will be taking more away from iScotland.

Shakethedisease

On the other hand you appear to think that Scotland will pass the EU's fiscal tests with flying colours and just hop on into the club despite having some of your fiscal checks in a situation worse than the Greeks.

What fiscal checks ?

These conditions are known as the ‘Copenhagen criteria’ and include a free-market economy, a stable democracy and the rule of law, and the acceptance of all EU legislation.

Membership criteria – Who can join?

The Treaty on the European Union states that any European country may apply for membership if it respects the democratic values of the EU and is committed to promoting them.
The first step is for the country to meet the key criteria for accession. These were mainly defined at the European Council in Copenhagen in 1993 and are hence referred to as 'Copenhagen criteria'. Countries wishing to join need to have:

• stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;
• a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;
• the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.

• http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/index_en.htm

Scotland already complies with all of these things. In fact the only thing they aren't eligible for regarding the EU is joining the Euro.

Scotland does not have membership of the EU,

5 million of her citizens do, and again we're not talking about joining. Just not leaving along with England and Wales.

Although Article 50 TEU only prescribes the procedure for a Member State (e.g. the UK) to leave the EU, this provision can also serve to govern the withdrawal of only a part of a state (e.g. England, Wales and Northern-Ireland) and as a legal basis to keep an independent Scotland in the EU in the context of a Brexit – under the condition that there is a political consensus for this among the three parties involved (i.e. the EU, Scotland and the UK minus Scotland). The negotiations foreseen in Article 50 TEU would then have two main aims: defining the EU’s relationship with the UK (minus Scotland) post-Brexit and adapting the terms of the UK’s EU membership to Scotland (i.e. adjusting them to Scotland’s size).
While under international law, Scotland would become a new legal entity, in the EU legal order it could remain being regarded as the Member State that joined in 1973

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/a-brexit-could-make-it-easier-for-scotland-to-join-the-eu-as-an-independent-state/

Also

The political situation at the moment such that it doesn't look like you're getting a referendum on independence any time soon (the PM said as much), it doesn't look like the public want one any time soon (recent polls) and the noises from the EU aren't exactly deafening overtures from the majority for Scottish accession to the EU but there is significant noise from people who want to remain in the UK.

Nothing wrong with holding an advisory referendum just like the Brexit one. Holyrood can do this if it wishes. May is howling at the moon with that one. The noises from the EU are all on hold until Article 50 is triggered. There is always significant noise from people who want to remain in the UK. They're panicing badly, oh and they also dominate Scottish media.

Unlike the EU referendum I cannot see any positives for iScotland in the EU and not in the UK. I could see positives for the UK leaving the EU to join EFTA/EEA and strike our own trade deals. The full EU membership wasn't all its cracked up to be.

But that's not so certain either is it ? EFTA might not want the UK.

Norway Isn’t Thrilled About Britain’s Norway Option

But in the EEA’s biggest member, Norway, questions are now being asked about the advantages of allowing the much bigger North Sea neighbor into an accord that in many ways has been tailored to the needs of the Scandinavian country and its other members -- Iceland and Liechtenstein. Concerns have been raised by the prime minister and the finance minister, and also by the leader of the Labor Party, the biggest group in opposition

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-30/norwegian-option-for-u-k-brexiters-is-not-so-clear-for-norway

Last week Solberg said she was not yet sure whether it would be “good for Norway” for Britain to gain membership of EFTA. Countries currently in EFTA have a small combined population of 14 million, compared with Britain’s own 65 million, causing inevitable issues with a potential membership application.
Norway's industry ministry Monica Maeland says it’s far from a clear-cut case that Norway should welcome the UK into EFTA.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-uk-trade-deals-negotiations-norway-prime-minister-erna-solberg-a7126551.html

Blimey you're full on about every little single detail of a possible independent Scotland's economy, explained and condensed down and projected into the next 10 years. When you don't have the foggiest idea where the UK will be in a few months time.

Shakethedisease

Sturgeon has been to Berlin today it seems.

The First Minister set out Scotland’s perspective on the result of the UK referendum on the EU, which saw Scotland vote to remain part of the EU and her determination to explore all options to protect Scotland's interests.Mr Roth made it clear that Europe could only weather the coming trials by coming together and that the German government would work hard to boost capability and cohesion in Europe. He said the European Union was much more than an internal market and had to strengthen its role as a community of shared values.


Speaking after the meeting, the First Minister said:
“Today’s discussion has been a welcome and constructive opportunity to strengthen our relations to discuss the way forward for the European Union and how all voices can be heard in that process.
“Scotland chose to remain in the European Union, and the solidarity shown toward Scotland as an enthusiastic part of the EU - demonstrated once again in today’s talks here in Berlin – has been very welcome.”


Minister of State Roth added:
“This has been a very pleasant and constructive conversation between two dedicated pro-Europeans...

http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/First-Minister-meets-German-government-286e.aspx

Wonder what's going on there behind the scenes.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

What fiscal checks ?

Seriously?

Stability and Growth Pact
The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is a set of rules designed to ensure that countries in the European Union pursue sound public finances and coordinate their fiscal policies.

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/sgp/index_en.htm

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

What fiscal checks ?

• http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/index_en.htm

Scotland already complies with all of these things. In fact the only thing they aren't eligible for regarding the EU is joining the Euro.
5 million of her citizens do, and again we're not talking about joining. Just not leaving along with England and Wales.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/a-brexit-could-make-it-easier-for-scotland-to-join-the-eu-as-an-independent-state/

See I read this and in particular this stood out in the context of iScotland:

How are economic accession criteria defined?
The Commission monitors a series of sub-criteria for each of the Copenhagen economic accession criteria:

1. Being a functioning market economy requires:
the existence of a broad consensus about essentials of economic policy;
macroeconomic stability (including price stability, sustainable public finances and external accounts);
a free interplay of market forces (including liberalised prices and trade);
free market entry and exit (including issues of establishment/bankruptcies of firms); and
an adequate legal system (including a system of property rights, enforceability of laws/contracts) and a sufficiently developed financial sector.

I highlighted the part I'm questioning in bold.

Then there's the monitoring and assessment phase, which Scotland would surely need to go through too. Especially since iScotland would be unable to prove they had price stability, sustainable public finances and external accounts.

And on the topic of the LSE's interpretation, that's all it is. The LSE have stated in that particular excerpt that

While under international law, Scotland would become a new legal entity, in the EU legal order it could remain being regarded as the Member State that joined in 1973.

But this really isn't the case, they appear to be clutching at straws. When the president of the EU Council and heads of state within the council tell you this isn't the case and the LSE interpret the rules to say that it might be possible, surely it's more relevant that the guys in charge of the EU, those who make the rules, are correct rather than someone interpreting the EU's own rules differently to the EU themselves?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Also Nothing wrong with holding an advisory referendum just like the Brexit one. Holyrood can do this if it wishes. May is howling at the moon with that one. The noises from the EU are all on hold until Article 50 is triggered. There is always significant noise from people who want to remain in the UK. They're panicing badly, oh and they also dominate Scottish media.

An advisory can be held, for sure. But there is no legal mechanism to enforce the PM or anyone else to recognise it. Pretty much why triggering article 50 would probably require an act of parliament in order to make it happen. I would be surprised if we (the UK) invoked article 50 without an act of parliament.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But that's not so certain either is it ? EFTA might not want the UK.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-30/norwegian-option-for-u-k-brexiters-is-not-so-clear-for-norway

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-uk-trade-deals-negotiations-norway-prime-minister-erna-solberg-a7126551.html

Blimey you're full on about every little single detail of a possible independent Scotland's economy, explained and condensed down and projected into the next 10 years. When you don't have the foggiest idea where the UK will be in a few months time.

It's certainly possible that EFTA may not, it's unlikely as the bloc will want to trade with us as much as we want to trade with them. It doesn't seem sensible to raise tariff barriers at all. I'm not saying that it couldn't happen but the sensible approach would be to agree a deal involving single market membership and all that entails.

And I would have thought that anyone with a stake in Scotland would be all about the detail, particularly the economic detail. Everyone pretty much knows what the EU is about politically, and iScotland will be subservient to the EU in the same way the UK is at the moment. The greatest unknown would be the economic detail. If GERS is incorrect as you say then that's a problem for the EU accession criteria (see above), if GERS is correct (even with a degree of inaccuracy) they highlight glaring problems with the public finances, again a problem for the EU accession criteria.

So unless there's an answer for the public finances (tax increase/spending cuts/magic sofa money) iScotland may not be automatically guaranteed EU membership as many appear to think they would.

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seriously?



http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/sgp/index_en.htm

Those are rules for EU countries within the EU already. I'm not sure what your point is. Tricky was saying that Scotland wouldn't pass the financial checks to get in in the first place. Now you're saying if Scotland stays in it will be bound by rules that the UK/Scotland adheres to already... but oh wait...

In addition, all Member States (except the United Kingdom), could see a suspension of commitments or payments from the EU’s Structural and investment funds (e.g. the European Regional Development Fund, the European Social Fund, the Cohesion Fund, the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development and the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund).

kabayiri

This business where England and Wales leave the EU, that leaves both Scotland and NI as the remaining entity in the EU right?

Seems okay to me. You need to win the next indy ref vote of course. Boris will head up your campaign for a fee I'm sure. He has a better track record of leaving things.