The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Wipe the floor in terms of being the largest party, perhaps, that's only because the unionist vote would be split between 3 major parties and independents. Cumulative vote share it's likely to see the SNP and Greens on the wrong side of 50% for independence.

Is not an independence vote though so no worries on that score since we are actually voting for political parties. Plus the Greens are only standing in 3 seats ( they've pulled out of Angus Robertson's for example ).

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Is not an independence vote though so no worries on that score since we are actually voting for political parties. Plus the Greens are only standing in 3 seats ( they've pulled out of Angus Robertson's for example ).

Which speaks to exactly what I was saying about the crystallisation of the pro-indy/pro-union votes that will take place. Not standing against another pro-indy candidate shows that the lines have been drawn on the independence issue. The Conservatives have also drawn the battle lines on the independence issue. This general election is a defacto referendum on independence in Scotland. If the SNP and Greens get less than 50% of the vote share then TM can safely say no in the knowledge that the majority of Scots back that position.

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Votes count.
Not polls.
And arithmetic can't be a strong point for you either.

Show me where the vote share increased by 100k?
Because that is not what the results given show; how does 32.3% vote share this time equate to increased vote share from 2012 at 32.33%?
Votes increased as the numbers voting increased - but the share did not increase, did it?
It decreased.
Albeit by a small amount but a decrease nonetheless.
That is simple arithmetic.

Here

@PeterMurrell May 7
UPDATE: Looking more like 105,000 more votes than in 2012. 608,000 first preference @theSNP votes. Official confirmation expected tomorrow

2012 :- 503,233
2017 :- 610,454




Sorry to burst your bubble. But the Tories and Labour simply swapped places for distant second.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Which speaks to exactly what I was saying about the crystallisation of the pro-indy/pro-union votes that will take place. Not standing against another pro-indy candidate shows that the lines have been drawn on the independence issue. The Conservatives have also drawn the battle lines on the independence issue. This general election is a defacto referendum on independence in Scotland. If the SNP and Greens get less than 50% of the vote share then TM can safely say no in the knowledge that the majority of Scots back that position.

Not really, you're being a bit over dramatic. I don't think the Greens have the money nor the resources to stand many candidates. They were pouring everything they had into the local elections when this election was called. They're skint in other words and this election was kind of sprung on everyone wasn't it ?

So no real crystallisation, more of a pragmatic decision from the Greens given they hadn't prepared for this GE and they don't really have a lot of spare cash sloshing about at the moment.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Not really, you're being a bit over dramatic. I don't think the Greens have the money nor the resources to stand many candidates. They were pouring everything they had into the local elections when this election was called. They're skint in other words and this election was kind of sprung on everyone wasn't it ?

So no real crystallisation, more of a pragmatic decision from the Greens given they hadn't prepared for this GE and they don't really have a lot of spare cash sloshing about at the moment.

That might be the case, but the point still stands that it's being run on the independence issue by the SNP, Greens, Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems. It will be a defacto referendum on having a referendum.

Shaka_Zulu

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They're polling between 40 and 48% depending on the polls recently. And increased their vote share and votes by 100,000 in the recent council elections. They're going to wipe the floor with both the Tories and Labour in Scotland on 8th June.

Another post for posterity.

I'll eat my pork pie hat if you get anywhere near 40% of the vote.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

That might be the case, but the point still stands that it's being run on the independence issue by the SNP, Greens, Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems. It will be a defacto referendum on having a referendum.

Not really, it'll be run on the independence issue certainly from the Tories and to an extent Labour and the Lib Dems. But the SNP and Greens will run their campaigns on Brexit issues and the usual anti-Tory stuff ( with Labour and Lib Dems joining in on that as well ).

The independence bill has already been passed in the Scottish Parliament so there's little more to be said on it right now until May responds. Westminster parties will of course try and ignore the will of the Scottish parliament, acting as if this vote hasn't already taken place democratically and in accordance with every other single bill or law that has come out of Holyrood since the Scottish parliament was reconvened after a 300 year old pause, including the last request for a referendum. But if they do, they'd better be prepared to dissolve Holyrood altogether in the next few years because otherwise there's going to be a big constitutional crisis played out.

Still, all of that can wait until after June 8th.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Not really, it'll be run on the independence issue certainly from the Tories and to an extent Labour and the Lib Dems. But the SNP and Greens will run their campaigns on Brexit issues and the usual anti-Tory stuff ( with Labour and Lib Dems joining in on that as well ).

The independence bill has already been passed in the Scottish Parliament so there's little more to be said on it right now until May responds. Westminster parties will of course try and ignore the will of the Scottish parliament, acting as if this vote hasn't already taken place democratically and in accordance with every other single bill or law that has come out of Holyrood since the Scottish parliament was reconvened after a 300 year old pause, including the last request for a referendum. But if they do, they'd better be prepared to dissolve Holyrood altogether in the next few years because otherwise there's going to be a big constitutional crisis played out.

Still, all of that can wait until after June 8th.

Your problem is if the majority of the electorate reject pro-independence parties on June 8th there is sound ground to say no. So not ignoring it but actually testing the will of the Scots in a general election before jumping into a divisive referendum campaign again. If you were convinced of 50%+ support for pro-indy parties I think you would be saying the same, that the will of the people should prevail rather than the will of the SNP and a Green party who sold their support out when they backed the bill in Holyrood.

Don't you find it odd when you're trying to explain to me that a vote for the SNP is not a vote for independence whilst at the same time trying to establish plaudits for the independence cause in the shape of the local election results?

I think you agree with me but you can not or will not admit it. The election on June 8th is an independence referendum litmus test. If the SNP + Green vote gets 50%+ you'll probably get your referendum, maybe not when you want it but you'll probably get it. If you do not and it's below 50% then it is reasonable for Westminster to say no since 50%+ of the Scottish electorate do not want it.

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Your living standards will be playing catch up with the rest of the UK unless there is an economic miracle and we both know it's naive to pin hopes on an economic miracle, right?

One could argue that our living standards already needs to play catch up.

Incidentally, I'm not pinning hopes on a miracle, but I do realise that having MP's who have full autonomy and are able to steer the country in the best direction.
This is a far better outlook than being kept in the shadows, dragged along by the policies that suit albeit a wider audience, but to the detriment of outlying areas.

IveSeenTheLight

Shakethedisease wrote: »

As a bit of an aside. Davidson is losing the plot.. :rotfl:




https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/864408833094856704

LOL, I received two pieces of literature in the post the other day.
Both issued by the Conservatives targeting the seat I live in.
Both had an obsession with Independence.
Both had absolutely nothing about what the Conservatives had to offer