Rightmove Feb 2016 +2.9% MOM

westernpromise

The issue with looking at things like Land Registry data is that it comes out a couple of months after completion and reflects deals struck a couple of months before that. It follows that if a market is going up, down or sideways the only place you'd be likely to see this in the short term is in current asking prices. If deals within the last three months are at comparatively lower prices than 6 months ago you'd expect estate agents to be telling their clients this. Agents make money off volume rather than value and in my experience tend to seize on anything they can to persuade vendors to drop the price. If asking prices are not dropping then the expectation must be that the completed prices in the pipeline and yet to be published are showing up upward trend.

Aberdeen excepted, obviously, where houses will soon be free.

Generali

westernpromise wrote: »

The issue with looking at things like Land Registry data is that it comes out a couple of months after completion and reflects deals struck a couple of months before that. It follows that if a market is going up, down or sideways the only place you'd be likely to see this in the short term is in current asking prices. If deals within the last three months are at comparatively lower prices than 6 months ago you'd expect estate agents to be telling their clients this. Agents make money off volume rather than value and in my experience tend to seize on anything they can to persuade vendors to drop the price. If asking prices are not dropping then the expectation must be that the completed prices in the pipeline and yet to be published are showing up upward trend.

Aberdeen excepted, obviously, where houses will soon be free.

IIRC, Rightmove numbers don't account for subsequent revisions to asking prices, just the initial listing price.

princeofpounds

One of my favourite measures that does the rounds is the 'index of delusion'.


It's basically the difference between rightmove asking prices index and actual mortgaged or achieved house prices index (like nationwide or land registry).


It's not apples for apples, so you can't take it as an absolute figure, but the change in the gap over time is interesting information.

westernpromise

A few years ago I sold a flat in Docklands whose value the local agents were unsure of because it was a studio and they hardly ever see any.

They suggested putting it on at £230k and seeing how close you can get. This turned out to be £190k.

Your delusion index may reflect uncertainty as to value or simply that prices are going up, therefore people offer at high prices because you can always discount later. If you offer a property too low and it sells quickly you simply miss out.

michaels

I wonder what achieves the best price overall, listing high and waiting for an acceptable offer or listing competitive and getting a bidding war/sealed bids - one for the agents to answer?

kinger101

padington wrote: »

Sorry, I should have said, who's data can you be reliant on to predict future house prices better than right move ?

Why do you need to predict it? If you want to try, use the sold price data. Chances are next quarter will be similar to the last. What do you think EAs do when they're pricing houses?

padington

kinger101 wrote: »

Why do you need to predict it? If you want to try, use the sold price data. Chances are next quarter will be similar to the last. What do you think EAs do when they're pricing houses?

I personally consider all information available not just previous sales. Previous sales don't tell much if a large regeneration project has just been given a go ahead or interest rates dramatically change for example.

A spotty 24 year old estate agent just looks at previous sales.

kinger101

padington wrote: »

I personally consider all information available not just previous sales. Previous sales don't tell much if a large regeneration project has just been given a go ahead or interest rates dramatically change for example.

A spotty 24 year old estate agent just looks at previous sales.

But the RM data is from Estate Agents.