Rightmove Feb 2016 +2.9% MOM

padington

I thought London peaked last April ?

Mwah

Aberdeenangarse

padington wrote: »

I thought London peaked last April ?

Mwah

Wood Green up 200% YOY :j

kinger101

TheeMaskedTurnip wrote: »

On the contrary, it's a fantastic indicator of sentiment. If sellers are bullish on the housing market they price themselves appropriately.

But people buy houses with cash, not sentiment. And the RM index isn't seasonally adjusted. They only do the index for the publicity.

Even with sold prices, a single month's data is too noisy to draw any sound conclusions from. You need to look at quarterly data at least to iron that out.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kinger101 wrote: »

But people buy houses with cash, not sentiment. And the RM index isn't seasonally adjusted. They only do the index for the publicity. .

All true.

However the RM index correlates quite closely with actual sold price trends.

So while I'd agree it's not as accurate as the sold price indices, I'd suggest ignoring or dismissing it because it comes from Rightmove would be foolish.

mayonnaise

kinger101 wrote: »

The RM index is pointless. It's based on asking prices. Stick to the Nationwide, Halifax and Land Registry.

Out of date graph, but the correlation between RM and all other indices is clear.

westernpromise

Ever since around 1950 people have been looking at last year's price for a London house and declaring that prices have gorn mental.

For those saying it today - presumably "this time it's different"?

padington

Aberdeenangarse wrote: »

Wood Green up 200% YOY :j

Not 200% but about 200 £200 notes for an average 2 up 2 down.

padington

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

One day this country will realise we need to build a few million more houses.

I won't hold my breath that it'll happen any time soon though.

Why build houses when you can just not build any thing and tax the hell out of the new rich created from not building anything. They'll be sure to pass the costs on to generation rent who are a bit rubbish at getting to the ballot box.

It's much easier and doesn't annoy the Nimbies.

Just make sure to offer big inheritance tax freebies before the election only to take it away with a pension tax take later on and jobs a good 'un.

Oh and threaten to cut loads of other things, only to not actually do it, just to tire the opposition out.

Once rents are well and truely stoked, only then sell large chunks of government land off for a massive wad or license other land to be built on for a large fee.

kinger101

mayonnaise wrote: »

Out of date graph, but the correlation between RM and all other indices is clear.

Yes, it will correlate to an extent because asking prices don't go down when selling prices go up, and vice versa. If you look at the graph more closely, you'll see RM is the noisiest of the data, and the least best fit in comparison to the other datasets. And that's just with annual data. I'd hate to see the MOM.

The peaks and troughs in for the RM dataset are both more optimistic than the datasets for the actual sold prices.

padington

kinger101 wrote: »

Yes, it will correlate to an extent because asking prices don't go down when selling prices go up, and vice versa. If you look at the graph more closely, you'll see RM is the noisiest of the data, and the least best fit in comparison to the other datasets. And that's just with annual data. I'd hate to see the MOM.

The peaks and troughs in for the RM dataset are both more optimistic than the datasets for the actual sold prices.

How many people do you know are plotting to sell all their UK property and getting out of the UK property market

Whilst how many people abroad or in the UK do you think are plotting to buy UK property ?

We love our houses and the world loves to harbour from their storms over here plus we have a mad mad mad economic era of very low interest rates which doesn't seem to be going anywhere fast and a government hell bent on issuing even more loose money to first time buyers whilst stoking the rental market and allowing lodger tax incentives.

Then on top of that you have big indicators like right move and all the big meta studies showing advanced warning of multi year house price inflation.

It's not rocket science.

My bigger picture take (and here I'm sure others will call me out to be wrong and I may be ) but I think the solution should be to raise interest rates and allow the worlds economies to take a hit but get over this problem but it's impossible. The worlds currencies ( in my opinion ) are no longer dominated by the U.S. Dollar. The dollar no longer is the worlds reserve currency. The balance of power Is now much more plural and in that sense it's all a complete mess. It's in everyone's interest to print money. Printed money tends to make inflation. The money tends to make it to the thing that's most desirable. In the Second World War that was food.

Today it's housing.

Especially in social democratic countries where that money can't be taken back or nationalised especially in fashionable cities favourable to the future tech elite which have artificial supply restrictions on building much more housing and especially within cities that enjoy a fast growing population.