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Rightmove Feb 2016 +2.9% MOM
Comments
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How many people do you know are plotting to sell all their UK property and getting out of the UK property market
Whilst how many people abroad or in the UK do you think are plotting to buy UK property ?
We love our houses and the world loves to harbour from their storms over here plus we have a mad mad mad economic era of very low interest rates which doesn't seem to be going anywhere fast and a government hell bent on issuing even more loose money to first time buyers whilst stoking the rental market and allowing lodger tax incentives.
Then on top of that you have big indicators like right move and all the big meta studies showing advanced warning of multi year house price inflation.
It's not rocket science.
You missed the point of my post. What's the point collecting estimates when actual data is available? And why use a monthly average and MOM change (NB - the previous months data was also noisy) when you can get a clearer picture using a moving average or quarterly trend.
I'm not saying house prices aren't going up. They clearly are. But there's no point in getting overly excited about RM's +2.9 MOM February press release in the same way it would be foolish to predict a massive crash based on their -1.3% MOM for December.
You're right, it's not rocket science. It's some quite simple mathematics and data analysis. The starting point is actual data. And then looking for trends rather than noise."Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius0 -
You missed the point of my post. What's the point collecting estimates when actual data is available? And why use a monthly average and MOM change (NB - the previous months data was also noisy) when you can get a clearer picture using a moving average or quarterly trend.
I'm not saying house prices aren't going up. They clearly are. But there's no point in getting overly excited about RM's +2.9 MOM February press release in the same way it would be foolish to predict a massive crash based on their -1.3% MOM for December.
You're right, it's not rocket science. It's some quite simple mathematics and data analysis. The starting point is actual data. And then looking for trends rather than noise.
You're right, be careful of noise but after years of right move data along with everything else you build a picture. I think it's fair to say that's all everyone is doing.
In the same breath if right move came out with minus 3% ( after years of rises and many reports predicting rises and lots of obvious fundamentals in place ), non of the usual characters would taking this as meaning much, it's on top of everything else, it begins to paint a picture.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
You're right, be careful of noise but after years of right move data along with everything else you build a picture. I think it's fair to say that's all everyone is doing.
In the same breath if right move came out with minus 3% ( after years of rises and many reports predicting rises and lots of obvious fundamentals in place ), non of the usual characters would taking this as meaning much, it's on top of everything else, it begins to paint a picture.
I think the MOM figures are there to lure journalists in, who don't realize it's the equivalent of drawing a graph from two data points."Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius0 -
I think the MOM figures are there to lure journalists in, who don't realize it's the equivalent of drawing a graph from two data points.
Journalists are rarely the best mathematicians. Did you see that piece about selling a house every year for 20 years and making a killing from almost nothing. That was just pie in the sky baloney. They based the percentage increase on asking prices without considering stamp duty take etc. It sold papers though, so I guess they it did their job.
Right move has however been a fairly reliable bellwether so far from what I have seen though. They capture a large amount of statical information.
Who else can predict future prices better than they can ?Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
Asking prices up in spring shock!Graham_Devon wrote: »Surprised Winter is now classed as Spring shock!
All other things being equal, house prices rise, or fall less, in the UK from Jan - June and fall, or rise less, from July - Dec.
The 'spring bounce' starts in January.0 -
I think the MOM figures are there to lure journalists in, who don't realize it's the equivalent of drawing a graph from two data points.
TBH, even if they did realise they wouldn't care.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
Did you know that the number of divorces in Maine correlates with margarine consumption with a r-score of less than .008?
0 -
Journalists are rarely the best mathematicians. Did you see that piece about selling a house every year for 20 years and making a killing from almost nothing. That was just pie in the sky baloney. They based the percentage increase on asking prices without considering stamp duty take etc. It sold papers though, so I guess they it did their job.
Right move has however been a fairly reliable bellwether so far from what I have seen though. They capture a large amount of statical information.
Who else can predict future prices better than they can ?
Rightmove is the best predictor of future house prices but IIRC they are not brilliant at it. They get it right about 2/3rds of the time.0 -
Journalists are rarely the best mathematicians. Did you see that piece about selling a house every year for 20 years and making a killing from almost nothing. That was just pie in the sky baloney. They based the percentage increase on asking prices without considering stamp duty take etc. It sold papers though, so I guess they it did their job.
Right move has however been a fairly reliable bellwether so far from what I have seen though. They capture a large amount of statical information.
Who else can predict future prices better than they can ?
They're not making a prediction. They are just collecting data and performing the bare minimum of analysis on it. The underlying data is from the EA, who will simply price the houses based on the local market (which is based on what they sold for recently). There will be a bit of optimism thrown in, because pessimists don't work in sales. And because vendors are more likely to go with the EA who claims they can get them the best price.
They're not going to predict a downturn and proactively cut prices. They'll only ask their clients to price them lower when they're forced to."Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius0 -
TBH, even if they did realise they wouldn't care.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
Did you know that the number of divorces in Maine correlates with margarine consumption with a r-score of less than .008?
To be fair, only butter will do so buying margarine is solid grounds for a divorce."Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius0 -
They're not making a prediction. They are just collecting data and performing the bare minimum of analysis on it. The underlying data is from the EA, who will simply price the houses based on the local market (which is based on what they sold for recently). There will be a bit of optimism thrown in, because pessimists don't work in sales. And because vendors are more likely to go with the EA who claims they can get them the best price.
They're not going to predict a downturn and proactively cut prices. They'll only ask their clients to price them lower when they're forced to.
Sorry, I should have said, who's data can you be reliant on to predict future house prices better than right move ?Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0
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