stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??

bowlhead99

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

And here it is at number 59
9th Jan 2016 - about a month ago see.

Read it and weep boys, read it and weep x

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/69879669#Comment_69879669

Oh I remember it quite well. It was one Saturday evening.

Earlier the Saturday morning, you had said at 11.48 that a "market in decimation thread" was "totally unnecessary", because "temporary volatility is normal and we are all here for the long term". Within ten minutes, you then came back to the same thread to tell us that "No one would be investing at the moment unless they enjoy playing with falling knives."

I then pointed out your apparent personality disorder and trolling nature, noting that whenever you turned up to bash the markets and contradict yourself with confused posts in quick succession it probably signalled a good opportunity to invest, giving examples of many occasions where in hindsight your fearmongering was quite often a good time to buy: my comment made on the quiet Saturday afternoon had 18 people clicking the button to agree with me.

Sure enough as I had predicted - by the evening of the very same day, you were tipping Glencore as a trade for Monday on the same thread.

The market opened on Monday 11th at 78p and by mid afternoon it was 80p. Later on Tuesday 12th (a day when it had opened at 71 and closed at 72) you were noting that you had been doing OK with Glencore via CFD. Given Glencore's direction had been broadly down from 250p over the prior six months, and it was down between 5 and 10% since the Monday it would be reasonable to assume that the positions you had been taking were short rather than long.

However, now by some miracle it turns out you had bought in long on the Monday and made 25% by holding for a month.

Well, I'm sure we have no doubt whatsoever that you are telling the truth about the timing of your trades and that they're not the work of a fantasist; you certainly seem to believe you know what you're doing as you felt the need to mention it four times in seven minutes this evening (posts #45,46,48,50), excitedly telling us about your great successes.

With so many different sheep in the flock, it's always interesting to see which one is going to speak for you next. I think the most polite observation I can make is that there's never a dull moment on threads that you're on.

Procrastinater

masonic wrote: »

Hmm, so I need to spend £45 on a book to get to the meat of the matter? I was hoping for something that could be conveyed in a couple of paragraphs. Also, I'm not sure I should be taking any tips from a technical analysis guru. I try not to take my medical problems to spiritual healers, so I figure the same principle applies.

A simple "thank you " would suffice ! :rotfl:

Procrastinater

masonic wrote: »

Hmm, so I need to spend £45 on a book to get to the meat of the matter? I was hoping for something that could be conveyed in a couple of paragraphs. Also, I'm not sure I should be taking any tips from a technical analysis guru. I try not to take my medical problems to spiritual healers, so I figure the same principle applies.

So how do you do your analysis masonic ?

If you feel £45 is too much to save your posterior, go ahead - buy Japan ! - I dare you !

System

The whole thing is a ponzi scheme

Procrastinater

berbastrike wrote: »

The whole thing is a ponzi scheme

Close berbastrike - close !

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Where-Are-Customers-Yachts-Investment/dp/0471770892/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1455057628&sr=1-1&keywords=customers+yachts

bowlhead99

Procrastinater wrote: »

berbastrike wrote: »

The whole thing is a ponzi scheme

Close berbastrike - close !

Where-Are-Customers-Yachts- link

Ah yes, dutifully exposing the folly of Wall Street. Three quarters of a century ago. Smart before its time?

These days, customers are smarter, information and education is free and bountiful. So in the 21st century, this information age, are people still being conned that a buyer can make money while a seller can make money while the broker makes money and an adviser makes money, in what must be a zero sum game?

Well, I would say generally not. Actually what has happened is that as information gets everywhere, collective investment products reach the mainstream and investment is no longer reserved for wealthy gentlemen with a Rolls Royce and a 'chap in the city' promising riches... a huge swathe of society can learn for themselves the principles of finance without being duped by snake-oil salesmen. With education and research and the lessons of history freely at one's fingertips through the twenty years of world wide web access we've enjoyed, anyone can get involved and avoid getting ripped off if they have enough smarts.

One of the things one discovers quite early on in a finance education is that the premise that "investment in markets = rip off because it's a zero sum game" is demonstrably false. It isn't a zero sum game, because economies generate wealth over time, and there is plenty to go around.

Of course, people will bash the bankers and claim investment managers and advisers are crooks, because to many it is more straightforward to criticise things you don't understand rather than learn how to understand them.

Procrastinater

bowlhead99 wrote: »

These days, customers are smarter, information and education is free and bountiful. .............

Then why don't they know that whether you "invested" in a footsie tracker at the beginning of 2000, early 2008 or beginning of 2015, you'd still be approx 20% down at today's valuation ?

bowlhead99 wrote: »

Well, I would say generally not. Actually what has happened is that as information gets everywhere, collective investment products reach the mainstream

Ah like the Sub-prime mortgage fiasco ? [ which the bankers invented ]

[edit] - Oh and of course "Paper gold" [close edit]

bowlhead99 wrote: »

......it is more straightforward to criticise things you don't understand rather than learn how to understand them.

I'm intrigued as to what you mean - perhaps you could recommend a good book on the subject ?

Kendall80

Japan 2.6% down again at time of writing. Thats on top of yesterdays 5%+ These are very big successive daily moves. Have the central banks run out of options?

Craig.M

3 cheers for Glencore! I'm holding on to my shares for a bit longer, but I'm greedy and want lots of money!

masonic

Procrastinater wrote: »

A simple "thank you " would suffice ! :rotfl:

Did I neglect to click the thanks button? It must have slipped my mind...

Procrastinater wrote: »

So how do you do your analysis masonic ?

In all honesty, I don't do a great deal of analysis. I have a target asset allocation, which is broadly global, but with a few overweights/underweights based on where I believe most of the growth will happen over the next 20-30 years. I then allow a simple equation to 'tweak' those weightings based on various valuation metrics (the main effect of which is that I currently have considerably less than 50% of my portfolio invested in the US).

If you feel £45 is too much to save your posterior, go ahead - buy Japan ! - I dare you !

If I thought the £45 would be money well spent, then I'd be less reluctant. If you'd seen some of my other posts around here, you'd know I take a dim view of technical analysis and trading in general.

As it happens, I took a small position in JFJ about 3 weeks ago (having shunned Japan entirely for almost 10 years). I'm considering building this up to the dizzy heights of 5% once I can subscribe some more cash to my S&S ISA.