stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??

Malthusian

I just won't tell him about my recent 25% gains on Glencore. Oops I just did

That's nothing, I made a 1100% gain on Leicester to beat Man City 3-1 this weekend. Now who looks clever!

psst... I didn't actually, but this is the Internet and I can make any old exclamation marks up

Glen_Clark

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Deutsche bank. could cripple Germany on a far larger scale than RBS and HBOS hit the UK. If it were to topple over. Share price down 46% in 3 months. Says it all.

I fail to see how?
Germany has a far stronger economy with a huge surplus instead of Britain's record deficit, and is far better balanced being not so dependant on financial services. Unlike Britain, German taxpayers are not expected to bail the bondholders out either - judging by the rocketing yield on Deutsche Bank Bonds

Glen_Clark

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

I just won't tell him about my recent 25% gains on Glencore. Oops I just did

25% in about a month isn't bad eh Bowly!

(cue some sarchasitc essay retort)

Just a very simple question
Why didn't you tell him when you bought them?
Anybody could say they bought them before they had risen?

Gadfium

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

I just won't tell him about my recent 25% gains on Glencore. Oops I just did

Why not give the tip for next month now, rather than last month's? Hindsight is always with 20:20 vision.

Or are you just trolling?

bowlhead99

Malthusian wrote: »

That's nothing, I made a 1100% gain on Leicester to beat Man City 3-1 this weekend. Now who looks clever!

psst... I didn't actually, but this is the Internet and I can make any old exclamation marks up

On Sunday I did actually bet on the Superbowl, predicting that the team which had pretty much the best defence in the league and the most experienced quarterback would win or at least not lose by more than 5.5 points. About 4 hours later I'd doubled my money.

Finding and winning a bet like that every day for a year, the annualised percentage return would have had over 110 zeros on the end of it. That seems like quite a decent return as the estimated number of atoms in the known universe is only a number with 80 zeros on the end of it. Other than needing to find a bookie to accommodate my ever increasing bet sizes, it seems pretty straightforward too.

I don't know why people bother with making 25% a month on Glencore CFDs for an overall IRR of a paltry 1450%, or using investment trusts for even less. I mean, what could possibly go wrong with my investment strategy. It works for me, so I'm not interested in hearing critique, thanks.

Scarpacci

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Unilever's profits fell by 5% in 2015. Is the price holding up due to sentiment rather than fundamentals?

It depends whether you want to rely on their adjusted "core operating profit" figure, which was up 12% year on year, or the reported figures which were affected by one-off gains on disposals in in the prior year. Sales were up and profits were up depending how you look at it. The underlying company certainly seems in better health than the -5% figure would suggest.

There's undoubtedly an element of sentiment over fundamentals, which doesn't seem surprising given the current market environment. This is certainly a time you would rather have Unilever stock than own a bank or mining company. I don't think I'd be buying more around the £30 mark or throwing all my money behind ULVR at this level, but I personally don't believe the consumer goods giants are wildly overvalued either.

A stock like Unilever with a 5% free cash flow yield + around 3-4% organic growth, which can typically translate into around 5-6% profit growth, would set you up for long term annual returns of around 10-11%. It doesn't seem all that unreasonable for what are, relative to other industries, stable earnings and a seemingly more secure dividend.

Thrugelmir

Glen_Clark wrote: »

I fail to see how?
Germany has a far stronger economy with a huge surplus instead of Britain's record deficit, and is far better balanced being not so dependant on financial services. Unlike Britain, German taxpayers are not expected to bail the bondholders out either - judging by the rocketing yield on Deutsche Bank Bonds

What has Germany's economy got to do with Deutsche bank. RBS wasn't a UK based bank when it went under, it was international. If Deutsche bank were to implode the impact reputably could have 5 times the impact of Lehmans. Deutsche bank may have been clean at home but played dirty offshore.

Share price down another 4.27% today at the close. There's something in the wind brewing.

Thrugelmir

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

I said in another thread it will plunge below 5,500 - not far to go now eh.

How far below?

5652 at close today.

masonic

Procrastinater wrote: »

"... Finally, the text offers in-depth coverage and analysis of the deflation trend that resulted in the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000 followed by three years of stock market decline........"

".....he examines the overall economic impact of such events as escalating tensions and wars in the Middle East, the decade-long downward spiral of the Japanese economy, and global over-investment in technology stocks. .......... ".

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Intermarket-Analysis-Profiting-Relationships-Trading/dp/1118571606/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1455024560&sr=8-2&keywords=intermarket+analysis

Hmm, so I need to spend £45 on a book to get to the meat of the matter? I was hoping for something that could be conveyed in a couple of paragraphs. Also, I'm not sure I should be taking any tips from a technical analysis guru. I try not to take my medical problems to spiritual healers, so I figure the same principle applies.

Glen_Clark

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What has Germany's economy got to do with Deutsche bank.

I was hoping you were going to tell me that because you said 'Deutsche bank. could cripple Germany'