stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??

BananaRepublic

bowlhead99 wrote: »

But you're right, markets don't like uncertainty so when the referendum and all follow-up actions are cleared up, it will be on to being "range bound" in a different range until the next bit of worldwide uncertainty is resolved, whatever that might be.

Quite right, once the uncertainty goes, the market tends to bounce upwards, until more uncertainty arrives. The unpredictability of this, since it is based on events largely beyond our control is why timing the market tends not to work.

bowlhead99 wrote: »

As to where to stick your investments - same as ever really: if you don't know where to invest, invest everywhere.

That strikes me as a rather risky strategy. It's advisable to do some research, and if you can't or don't want to, then get reliable advice. And research is of course more than just reading the finance sections of the sunday comics, which tend to follow the current trends. The problem is that some markets can be very volatile. I would argue that it is safer to go for the more mature markets, which tends to mean Western ones.

BananaRepublic

Kendall80 wrote: »

This thread should be retitled - are we nearing the top or is there further to go.

Something tells me we are never near the top, unless what we like to think of as civilisation here in Blighty comes to an end. I once lived in Luton, and I must admit I did sometimes wonder if civilisation had come to an end ... Seriously though, the markets will grow as long as our economy grows, and that is based on exploiting natural resources, adding value, providing services and so on. Hopefully we are moving to an economy based more on renewable energy, rather than oil and gas which are limited, and render us susceptible to blackmail by some rather distasteful regimes e.g. Saudi Arabia and Russia.

coastline

I'm not sure if the referendum is affecting the UK markets at the moment as the FTSE All Share has underperformed since 2014.
Its probably more to do with the heavyweights in the index,Oils,Miners and Banks ?
You can see by the chart the pattern its pretty similar in recent months and following the US and others.

http://www.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx?typeCode=NM990100,NASX

I know its not posters cup of tea on here but looking at a long term chart with indicators,RSI,Full STO, I can't help thinking they will complete the move to the lower oversold level.
Why worry if you are drip feeding monthly or long term lump sum its all part of the ups and downs..

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LzgZTczUNtg/Vtn6OiYrhWI/AAAAAAABfKE/mA17VeD12gQ/s1600/usa%2Bdow%2Bmonthly%2Bmar4.png

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-35jTZTXNLIM/Vtn6XoXp__I/AAAAAAABfKI/8my1cHTIuC4/s1600/uk%2Bmonthly%2Bmar4.png

Fund managers are still undecided..

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/fund-managers-current-asset-allocation.html

Glen_Clark

BananaRepublic wrote: »

the markets will grow as long as our economy grows, and that is based on exploiting natural resources, adding value, providing services and so on.

If only that were still true. But our economy has become based on printing and borrowing money to fund consumer spending, and inflating the price of existing assets like housing.
When I was growing up TV programmes were full of technology programmes like 'Tomorrows World' and we all wanted to be engine drivers. Now the TV programmes are more about property speculation, 'housing benefit millionaires', 'council house millionaires'. Just don't mention the growth of the National Debt :eek:

bigadaj

Interesting thread that is opening is some rather bizarre opinions.

We now have Chartists predicting things liken alchemists from ten Middle Ages and apparently renewable energy is going to help, rather than dramatically increase everyone's fuel costs as it abs over the also decade.

Also for banana republic, where are you sourcing this reputable advice? Is this from an ifa, subscription services, your own knowledge or something else.

Bowlhead is of course right in saying that diversity is king, though everyone will have their own opinion and tweak in accordance with that, be it right or wrong. I have been overweight on uk and emerging markets over the last few years, the former largely due to legacy and slowly working to reduce, the latter because of a genuine belief that this is where much future growth will occur. Teh corollary is of course that I am underweight in us and Europe. I'm correcting the former, in both areas my thoughts were that slow growth would predominate, in the us because if continued fall out form the gfc, the latter because if structural problems. I've not changed too much on Europe, but my us thoughts failed to take into account the size and strength of the only global superpower and their domination in tech.

You live and sometimes learn, but a neutral approach means you do slightly worse than market average but better than many.

Glen_Clark

As if the posts aren't enough, the chosen username 'Banana Republic' illustrates the level of understanding of the economy
We are not a Republic because we have an unelected Monarch we can't get rid of. In British law, merely to suggest removal of the monarch by democratic means is classed as 'Treason' and still carries the death penalty. Thats about as far away from a Republic as you can get.
We can't grow bananas either.

JohnRo

We now have Chartists predicting things liken alchemists from ten Middle Ages

The problem is the business models on which the valuations are being assigned to many of those giant US tech companies are also more akin to the alchemy of the middle ages. They've been propping up the US stock market when under the surface a US recession is looming large.
Amazon for example has been described in great detail as nothing more than a profitless ponzi scheme. Apple is a fashion cult providing goods that no one really needs which are available elsewhere, cheaper and better, anyway... Google & Youtube etc.
Personally I'm not nearly as upbeat about the US, it has a lot of "mainstreet" problems, all hidden behind Wall Street's glossy marketing and corporate media presentations using selective statistics, not that it matters to anyone but me.

bowlhead99

Glen_Clark wrote: »

As if the posts aren't enough, the chosen username 'Banana Republic' illustrates the level of understanding of the economy
We are not a Republic because we have an unelected Monarch we can't get rid of. In British law, merely to suggest removal of the monarch by democratic means is classed as 'Treason' and still carries the death penalty. Thats about as far away from a Republic as you can get.
We can't grow bananas either.

!!!!!!, what has a username got to do with anything. Did the poster say the UK was a banana republic or invite comment about whether our head of state was elected or whether dumping her is treasonous or whether, as you're keen to remind us, she pays much council tax on her place down the Mall?

For all we know he just selected that username because it was unused and he fancies the girl behind the counter at his local fashion emporium which carries that name.

Should we say your username illustrates a lack of understanding of normal civilised society because clearly you have taken Glen from Florida death row inmate Glen "the Casanova Killer" Rogers, and Clark from Clark Kent, a mild mannered journalist made impervious to bullets by the power of Earth's yellow sun?

Give it a break guys.

N1AK

BananaRepublic wrote: »

That ignores the underlying principle of business, whereby you invest money, and grow the business, thereby returning dividends to investors, and increasing the value of each share.

Yes; it ignores it because it has no relevance to trading shares.

N1AK

Glen_Clark wrote: »

... illustrates the level of understanding of the economy

In British law, merely to suggest removal of the monarch by democratic means is classed as 'Treason' and still carries the death penalty.

Unlike you who we can judge the level of ignorance by what you post instead of the name; in this case the obviously and entirely false claim that the death penalty still exists in the UK. It was false a decade ago, and is still false, so it's impressive you can be so poorly informed.