stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??

Glen_Clark

2010 wrote: »

And of course greedy housebuilders who delibrately don`t build enogh houses simply to keep prices higher.

As a retired builder myself I can tell you there isn't a lot of profit in actually building houses. The big 'housebuilders' have been making most of their money from the rise in value of the 'building land' they hold - another example judging the political climate right producing large investment gains.
If the Government and political climate changed so planning rules were relaxed increasing the supply, or Osborne's taxpayer funded house price subsidies were withdrawn reducing the demand, the value of their landbanks would fall and they would lose their shirts.

Investors wouldn't spend so much money on hiring and lobbying (ex) politicians if politics didn't affect their investments.

2010

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30776306

Why can`t the UK build 240,000 a year?

Glen_Clark

2010 wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30776306

Why can`t the UK build 240,000 a year?

That article makes some very good points. They say there is planning permission going unused. But when you look closer at that planning permission you invariably find so many conditions put on it as to make housebuilding uneconomic - even at todays house prices. Councils insist the developers build roads, parks - even schools which the Government are already taking taxes from us to pay for. Its politics again. Its electorally popular to reduce the council tax by getting developers to pay for things the council should provide themselves. Of course it will increase the price of the homes, or stop them getting built, but the people who need those homes don't get a vote because they are not already on the electoral roll in the locality. Local Government remains firmly in the control of the Nimbys because the people needing the homes have no vote in the place they need to move to. Try to build a housing estate on the edge of a village and a few hundred people in a village can out vote the thousands who need the homes.

Apodemus

2010 wrote: »

For every buyer, who buys, because they think the price will go up, there is a seller who thinks it will go down.

I don`t want you or Kittie to lose just the smart asses.

Surely some sellers just need to take their money out of the market to spend on other things? So they don't just sell because they think the price will go down. Also the underlying assets of the company may rise (or fall) over time making the company worth more (or less), so I don't understand the zero sum game argument.

BananaRepublic

nb73 wrote: »

trading shares is a zero sum game - for every winner there is a loser.

Other than me, who do you wish to lose?

That ignores the underlying principle of business, whereby you invest money, and grow the business, thereby returning dividends to investors, and increasing the value of each share. Of course that assumes you choose shares wisely, spread your money over multiple companies, and stay the course.

masonic

Apodemus wrote: »

Surely some sellers just need to take their money out of the market to spend on other things? So they don't just sell because they think the price will go down. Also the underlying assets of the company may rise (or fall) over time making the company worth more (or less), so I don't understand the zero sum game argument.

The 'zero sum game' was in reference to trading. I think it is fair to say the traders are playing a zero sum game because most of what they do is driven by sentiment. They probably won't be around long enough to profit from value creation.

Kendall80

This thread should be retitled - are we nearing the top or is there further to go. My portfolio is up 8% for the past month. Annualised 96% - as if
Pessimism and a decreasing risk tolerance have led me to sell 30% to cash expecting a bit of 'correcting' - maybe starting with super-mario tomorrow.

redux

Kendall80 wrote: »

This thread should be retitled - are we nearing the top or is there further to go. My portfolio is up 8% for the past month. Annualised 96% - as if

152%

Very hypothetical of course, but don't forget to compound rates of return. Well, it would still count for a few years at 8% yearly.

1.08 ^ 12 = 2.518

frugal90

the market looks pretty range bound to me as if it's looking to break out either up or down. My guess and that is all it is - market falls on the run in to the european referendum then steady climb through to year end- basically rcovering losses and back to where we are now. Think governments are running out of financial tools. Helicopter money anyone? So where do we stick our investments .

bowlhead99

"Range bound and looking to break out" is just a technical term for "the capital value of this index hasn't been above x in a while or below y in a while, but at some point it will".

Some world markets don't really care about our referendum - I'm sure the value of a barrel of oil doesn't depend much on our in/out vote. And people shouldn't focus their portfolio to heavily on one market or set of markets.

But you're right, markets don't like uncertainty so when the referendum and all follow-up actions are cleared up, it will be on to being "range bound" in a different range until the next bit of worldwide uncertainty is resolved, whatever that might be.

As to where to stick your investments - same as ever really: if you don't know where to invest, invest everywhere. You can pretty much guarantee that public and private equities of every sector and every country, bonds and loans of every currency and risk profile, metals and commodities, infrastructure projects and real estate globally, and cash in a high interest bank account, will not all fall or rise to the same extent at the same time. While all have the ability to help you make money over the long term.

The only thing you might want to tweak from time to time is how cautious or aggressive you're being in terms of potential volatility and prospective growth. If you have a specific view on some of the markets (eg FTSE 250 and eurozone will go down in value until referendum and then go up), it probably makes sense to weight less of your investments in those areas and buy more later with your cash or the proceeds from the things that didn't go down. If you think that's just a guess and you don't really know, then maybe just do half in the "avoid UK and Europe plan" and half in your more normal plan.

Or keep buying as normal but bet big at the bookies on a Brexit. A grand invested at Betfair or the like will give you several thousands pounds of buying power if we vote to exit and there's an ensuing fire sale.