The Mad World of Donald Trump

michaels

Didn't Perot get a respectable score (although not close). The permutations with the democratic nomination still up for grabs and the republican one wide open and a strong independent are fascinating - a real 'top match for the neutrals'. Just a shame that no one on the planet is a neutral and we will all suffer if one of the crazies get in.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Didn't Perot get a respectable score (although not close). ....

1992. Perot got a decent chunck of the popular vote, but zero electoral votes.

Generali wrote: »

...No third party candidate has come close since the silver standard mob in the C19th (can't remember the name of the party).

Silver Republican Party? I'm not sure that they ever put forward a presidential candidate.

There is a useful summary of US presidential elections here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election

The last time that a third party candidate got anywhere was 1968, when George Wallace picked up some votes in the south.

vivatifosi

antrobus wrote: »

The last time that a third party candidate got anywhere was 1968, when George Wallace picked up some votes in the south.

Thanks. I had a feeling there was one somewhere. I had it in my hea that it was Ralph Nader, but on reflection I think he was the one who arguably took votes away from Al Gore in 2000 and allegedly lost him the election.

Which is probably something else that Bloomberg needs to consider, not only can he win, but if he loses, what impact will it have on the other two (mainstream if more than two) candidates, and does he want to have a part in that? As he has stood as a Republican, would he want to take votes away from Trump if he loses? Or as a centrist candidate would he draw from both sides if the candidates are as polarised as is feasible (ie Sanders and Trump)?

Strange days electorally. Strange days everywhere it would seem, not just the US.

padington

Trump / Sanders it is.

Moby

Interesting titbit Sanders brother lives in Oxford. The issue now will be about momentum..........whether Clinton and the other Republicans will be able to fight back in the following primary's. Probably an establishment GOP front runner will emerge when Christie etc drop out. My money is on Rubio. Bush also has a widespread political machine.
Come on Bernie!

antrobus

padington wrote: »

Trump / Sanders it is.

Maybe. Maybe not.

Iowa and New Hampshire actually mean doodly-squat in terms of the arithmetic of the respective nomination races. Iowa sends 44 delegates to the Democratic convention, New Hampshire sends 22; California, on the other hand has 546 at stake, New York 291 and so forth.

Besides, Clinton is currently leading the race 394-42, thanks to the superdelegates. Sanders has a lot of ground to make up.

cepheus

Moby wrote: »

Interesting titbit Sanders brother lives in Oxford. The issue now will be about momentum..........whether Clinton and the other Republicans will be able to fight back in the following primary's. Probably an establishment GOP front runner will emerge when Christie etc drop out. My money is on Rubio. Bush also has a widespread political machine.
Come on Bernie!

He's in the England and Wales Green party and ran in 2015 for Oxford West and Abingdon.

http://www.greenoxfordshire.com/larrygreenoxfordcom

I hope Bernie has good security, since if he looks like winning the Democratic nomination and certainly the Presidency, one of Trump's supporters might take a shot at him.

Interestingly Larry Sanders has the greatest support amongst women and the Young, whilst Hilary has most support within the ethnic minorities. Both States so far have been nearly totally white.

MARTYM8`

antrobus wrote: »

Besides, Clinton is currently leading the race 394-42, thanks to the superdelegates. Sanders has a lot of ground to make up.

And that is the point.

Clinton has the super delegates sewn up - so she already has potentially 17% of the total delegates at the convention. Of those who have declared so far 355 have gone for her and only 14 for Sanders.

The Democrats allocate all their delegates proportionately. So lets say Bernie wins every state 55 to 45 - you might think he is bound to be the nominee. But that would only give him around 1,950 delegates to Hillary's 1,600 - a lead of 350. The 700+ superdelegates can then sweep in and turn Bernie's 350 lead into a lead for Clinton of 350.

So Bernie could win every state from now on - and Clinton could still be the nominee.


http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-39433875.html

antrobus

MARTYM8` wrote: »

And that is the point.

Clinton has the super delegates sewn up - so she already has potentially 17% of the total delegates at the convention. Of those who have declared so far 355 have gone for her and only 14 for Sanders.

The Democrats allocate all their delegates proportionately. So lets say Bernie wins every state 55 to 45 - you might think he is bound to be the nominee. But that would only give him around 1,950 delegates to Hillary's 1,600 - a lead of 350. The 700+ superdelegates can then sweep in and turn Bernie's 350 lead into a lead for Clinton of 350.

So Bernie could win every state from now on - and Clinton could still be the nominee.

I am using the NY Times to keep track
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html?_r=0

So what I know is that the declared superdelegates are currently split 362-8 in Clinton's favour, and that so far in the primaries Clinton has won 32 delegates and Sanders 34. Big deal.:)

You could well be right. There are 713 superdelegates out of a total of 4,764, so if 95% or so of the supers do go for Clinton, Saunders would need to get something over 55% of the rest of them to actually win.

https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/images/4/47/Allocation_Chart_w_Bonuses_9.25.15.pdf

vivatifosi

It's starting to look more Trump vs Clinton. Though if anyone needs further evidence that global politics is a little funky at the moment, they only need look at what happened in Ireland overnight. The public has turned away from the two main parties.