The Mad World of Donald Trump

michaels

Just looked at the FT Brexit poll tracker and I think it makes the Betfair odds look generous although one stand out is the divergence between different polling companies, completely the opposite to the General election when the variance between companies and polls was much smaller than random chance would have predicted. Basically I don't think the polls are any guide so calling Brexit is much more on gut than any thing else which is why I fear Betfair is probably the best guide.

Moby

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQizfFWdoxk
A wonderful evocative poem about the travails of refugees from Mr Trump.:rotfl:

MiserlyMartin

If I had the vote I'd vote Trump. I'm fed up of the namby panby lame duck, weeping Obama and his brand of socialist politics.

Yeah Tump makes brash controversial statements, but I happen to agree with him. Europe should build a wall to keep terrorists out, the fact that a lot of them happen to be muslim is not racist. They just are. In effect we are getting that wall in certain countries as they have finally woken up and seen they can't accomodate the numbers. Plus how these so called refugees behave not being grateful, commiting crime, being violent shows the world what they really are. And the UK are mugs for sending as much help as we do.

Generali

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

If I had the vote I'd vote Trump. I'm fed up of the namby panby lame duck, weeping Obama and his brand of socialist politics.

Yeah Tump makes brash controversial statements, but I happen to agree with him. Europe should build a wall to keep terrorists out, the fact that a lot of them happen to be muslim is not racist. They just are. In effect we are getting that wall in certain countries as they have finally woken up and seen they can't accomodate the numbers. Plus how these so called refugees behave not being grateful, commiting crime, being violent shows the world what they really are. And the UK are mugs for sending as much help as we do.

Where do you propose building this wall?

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Thanks viva - if the bookie odds on Brexit are 4:1 against does that imply a 25% probability? IN which case are the other 'moderately probabie' risks more likely than that?!

Edit - Whereas a 'moderately probable' Trump presidency is currently 6:1 - go figure.

Bookies set odds to entice people to bet. There sole aim is to make money. No forecast the result.

michaels

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Bookies set odds to entice people to bet. There sole aim is to make money. No forecast the result.

Betfair don't set the odds, just like any other market the prices reflect the 'wisdom of crowds'.

michaels

michaels wrote: »

Just looked at the FT Brexit poll tracker and I think it makes the Betfair odds look generous although one stand out is the divergence between different polling companies, completely the opposite to the General election when the variance between companies and polls was much smaller than random chance would have predicted. Basically I don't think the polls are any guide so calling Brexit is much more on gut than any thing else which is why I fear Betfair is probably the best guide.

Pah, not being a betting man (believing in efficient markets) I didn't back Brexit it 4 when I thought it looked generous and it is now in to about 2.75 which I could have now settled for a nice profit.

Moby

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

If I had the vote I'd vote Trump. I'm fed up of the namby panby lame duck, weeping Obama and his brand of socialist politics.

Yeah Tump makes brash controversial statements, but I happen to agree with him. Europe should build a wall to keep terrorists out, the fact that a lot of them happen to be muslim is not racist. They just are. In effect we are getting that wall in certain countries as they have finally woken up and seen they can't accomodate the numbers. Plus how these so called refugees behave not being grateful, commiting crime, being violent shows the world what they really are. And the UK are mugs for sending as much help as we do.

For every action expect a reaction. The policies of Trump etc are the greatest recruiting tool for extremism you could imagine. Do you think the wall Israel has been building on the West Bank works towards solving the Palestinian problem.?

CLAPTON

Moby wrote: »

For every action expect a reaction. The policies of Trump etc are the greatest recruiting tool for extremism you could imagine. Do you think the wall Israel has been building on the West Bank works towards solving the Palestinian problem.?

do you think the bombs and rockets that are sent over into Israel, work towards solving the Israeli - Palestinian problem?

Moby

CLAPTON wrote: »

do you think the bombs and rockets that are sent over into Israel, work towards solving the Israeli - Palestinian problem?

No I don't............ do you Clapton? Twist the debate as usual. You are so predictable:rotfl: