If we vote for Brexit what happens

buglawton

CLAPTON wrote: »

This looks like good news although it is very early days and we need to wait many months before forming any real views.

But this should lead to lower house and rental prices; the young could, over time, expect better, more spacious accommodation.
One would expect tightening of the labour market with unward pressue on wages and so positive incentives for businesses to innovate and improve productivity.

Clearly, the new reality will cause uncertainty and an unsettled market for some time and obviously there will be some losers (mainly older property owners) but the young have everything to gain.

Older property owners won't be downsizing or selling up any time soon, due to crippling stamp duty and complex 2nd property tax implications.

brodawel

Land registry sold prices are hugely different from Rightmove asking prices. The overpriced houses are not worth the asking price they are asking. If they drop to a realistic price in order to sell it doesn't mean prices have fallen, they were never worth the higher price in the first place.

CLAPTON

buglawton wrote: »

Older property owners won't be downsizing or selling up any time soon, due to crippling stamp duty and complex 2nd property tax implications.

the overwhelming majority of people don't sell in any year.

however some people die or change jobs or have other reasons why they 'have' to move so houses will continue to be bought and sold albeit at a lower level

marksoton

Crashy_Time wrote: »

the Aberdeen collapse sending a shadow over the whole country

You what?

I think you over estimate the importance of Aberdeen.

ukcarper

marksoton wrote: »

You what?

I think you over estimate the importance of Aberdeen.

Might not be In UK in a couple of years.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

This looks like good news although it is very early days and we need to wait many months before forming any real views.

But this should lead to lower house and rental prices; the young could, over time, expect better, more spacious accommodation.
One would expect tightening of the labour market with unward pressue on wages and so positive incentives for businesses to innovate and improve productivity.

Clearly, the new reality will cause uncertainty and an unsettled market for some time and obviously there will be some losers (mainly older property owners) but the young have everything to gain.

Dont count your chickens just yet. For instance the 2000-2004 period was a much more stable and low migration period with population growth about half of recent years but house prices went bananas during those 4 years

I could foresee a situation where london stagnates or even falls in price while the rest of the country still goes up in price

Also you have at the moment no idea what the new build rate response is going to be. If we go from ~150,000 units down to ~100,000 units that is going to nullify about half the fall in population growth with regards to house prices

There is also another factor within London, sales (volume) have fallen which might mean that fewer Londoners move out to rUK as they cant sell (at a price they want to sell at)


So as you say it will take at least another 3-6 months just to see what direction this ship is moving. However I feel confident that the predicted mass inflow pre final exit wont occur that in fact the vote itself might have already curtailed net inward migration and possibly by a large amount

gfplux

I was a remainder, note was.
That position has been made redundant.
All Britains are now going to leave the EU.
We now need to look forward.
David Davis has been appointed to get us out. What that will look like we don't know. We think we know the time frame is something about 30 months.
However we do no more than we did last week.
Hopefully we will know more next week.
What is certain is we live in uncertain times. We will also have to live with unintended consequences.
Those that continue to argue the rights and wrongs of leaving should start a separate thread.

Conrad

Some interesting new points.
According to some EU stats I saw earlier we are the 26th biggest exporter into the EU, way behind the likes of Japan and a host of other non EU, non single market nations

Let's say we fully leave the SM, it means we may have to endure a small tarif up to about 3%, but now we're not going to be paying into the EU any longer and our devalued currency more than offsets the tarif.

Furthermore we would impose tariffs on imports from the EU and as we import double the amount we sell to the EU, we therefore win again as those tariffs go into our exchequer

The majority of non EU nations export perfecto happily into the EU, so I think the SM is over rated

And again just keep in mind that 5 million jobs are associated with EU exports to the UK and we have our fishing waters, military prowess and other aces in our hand

I think we can be really positive and not worry at all and on top of all this we are now going to see masses of innovation and energy being generated as a result of our new found global face and focus

Hammond has said today we are leaving the SM, so we've kinda faced down the EU already. Free movement will not be an option we will accept but again the SM is vastly over rated and 25 non EU nations export more than us into the EU with no SM access

Conrad

gfplux wrote: »

What is certain is we live in uncertain times. We will also have to live with unintended consequences.
Those that continue to argue the rights and wrongs of leaving should start a separate thread.

Yes we do face uncertainty, but that's the case were we remaining given the huge risks circling the EU.

Personally I welcome change and being thrown into the icy brook to sink or swim, and boy will we swim, we always do

Conrad

kabayiri wrote: »

Can any place cope with change?

Can there be any nation which doesn't treat the population like mushrooms? (keep in the dark, fed on b*llsh*t), particularly during change.

Perhaps. I give you Norway.

Those numpties invested a lot of their oil proceeds in something called the future. What idiots eh?.

Did you know that despite having enormous reserves of gas and oil, they don't use gas domestically? Nope...it's all electric - mainly from the hydroelectric program.

Do they pretend that the cost of living is cheap? Nope.

Still. I'm sure the EU will find a way of sc**wing them over too.

Id be extremely surprised if Norway and Switzerland weren't already talking to David Davis. The Swiss have voted to end free movement but the EU are ignoring them, and I think I'm right in saying the Norweigen population (not the political media class of course) also want out of free movement.