If we vote for Brexit what happens

ruelle

ArabellaLondon wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/14/bank-of-england-interest-rates-cut-brexit-record-low-today-business-live

Thank you!

ruelle

ArabellaLondon wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jul/14/bank-of-england-interest-rates-cut-brexit-record-low-today-business-live

Ha - 'Is Mark Carney the 'unreliable boyfriend again?'

kabayiri

mayonnaise wrote: »

Ah yes.
Change.
Inspiring Change.
Leading Change.
Managing Change.
I heard quite a lot of this corporate clap trap in my days.

Can any place cope with change?

Can there be any nation which doesn't treat the population like mushrooms? (keep in the dark, fed on b*llsh*t), particularly during change.

Perhaps. I give you Norway.

Those numpties invested a lot of their oil proceeds in something called the future. What idiots eh?.

Did you know that despite having enormous reserves of gas and oil, they don't use gas domestically? Nope...it's all electric - mainly from the hydroelectric program.

Do they pretend that the cost of living is cheap? Nope.

Still. I'm sure the EU will find a way of sc**wing them over too.

brit1234

The falls are going to take months and years rippling out. They had started well before Brexit. Properties were simply overvalued and unaffordable, the bubble had to pop at some time.

However don't be surprised if the government do some more ludicrous schemes to keep house prices inflated like 2009-10 again. After all the big builders donate to the conservative party a lot of money. It all depends if May wants the donations from the builders or the public growing support from the priced out generations.

Most people under 40 will welcome these continuing house price falls. Many older buy to speculator investors taking huge risk and debt won't. That's why Carney has called buy to let a big risk and has got further clamp downs coming.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

Its good to see our every worsening dependency on imported fuel being highlighted.
with a huge trade deficit it was inevitable that the pound would slide.

Before 23rd June did you mention the inevitability of a fall in sterling quite a lot? Or was it an inevitability only after the event?

CLAPTON wrote: »

A good reason to reduce immigration that makes that the increasing essential imports will make the trade deficit yet worse.

Not sure that sentence makes sense but I assume we need to blame immigrants more.

cells

Anectodal evidence from estate agents I met today saying that instead of a huge influx of migrants to beat some sort of brexit deadline they have stopping coming in such large numbers. This seems to make sense the other EU countries are not in abject poverty and if you were say Polish and wanted to emigrate would you now go to the UK or decide maybe Germany would be the better longer term option.

So already the out vote may be restricting population growth. The fear might kick in if we see a crash in migration in but no big reduction in migration out.

So what was 600,000 in 300,000 out might change to 200,000 in 300,000 out which would be a huge change.

Lots of the property bears were saying April was the peak. I think it might be correct and we nay now see a long term stagnation in London.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Before 23rd June did you mention the inevitability of a fall in sterling quite a lot? Or was it an inevitability only after the event?



Not sure that sentence makes sense but I assume we need to blame immigrants more.

Yes

I have posted about the huge balance of trade deficit many times.
I have posted about how the rise in population increases our demand for essential imports, food, fuel, electronics etc. without producing any correspmsding increase in exports to pay for the imports.
I have posted how the deficit is funded by selling off our industry and businesses (some call this inward investment.)

I have posted that whilst this allows us to fund currrent consumption at the moment, the consequences will mainly be suffered in the future by the younger people.
I have posted how a lower level of our currency, whilst increasing import prices will encourage consumers to buy more home produced stuff etc.

I'm disappointed that you haven't read my many posts on this subject although to be fair, the balance of trade hasn't been an active interest on these boards, as most are convinced that the deficit doesn't matter and that 'inward' investment is a fantastic and desirable thing.

I'm sure there will be more interest in the future.

baza52

cells wrote: »

Anectodal evidence from estate agents I met today saying that instead of a huge influx of migrants to beat some sort of brexit deadline they have stopping coming in such large numbers. This seems to make sense the other EU countries are not in abject poverty and if you were say Polish and wanted to emigrate would you now go to the UK or decide maybe Germany would be the better longer term option.

So already the out vote may be restricting population growth. The fear might kick in if we see a crash in migration in but no big reduction in migration out.

So what was 600,000 in 300,000 out might change to 200,000 in 300,000 out which would be a huge change.

Lots of the property bears were saying April was the peak. I think it might be correct and we nay now see a long term stagnation in London.

I would call that a result

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

Anectodal evidence from estate agents I met today saying that instead of a huge influx of migrants to beat some sort of brexit deadline they have stopping coming in such large numbers. This seems to make sense the other EU countries are not in abject poverty and if you were say Polish and wanted to emigrate would you now go to the UK or decide maybe Germany would be the better longer term option.

So already the out vote may be restricting population growth. The fear might kick in if we see a crash in migration in but no big reduction in migration out.

So what was 600,000 in 300,000 out might change to 200,000 in 300,000 out which would be a huge change.

Lots of the property bears were saying April was the peak. I think it might be correct and we nay now see a long term stagnation in London.

This looks like good news although it is very early days and we need to wait many months before forming any real views.

But this should lead to lower house and rental prices; the young could, over time, expect better, more spacious accommodation.
One would expect tightening of the labour market with unward pressue on wages and so positive incentives for businesses to innovate and improve productivity.

Clearly, the new reality will cause uncertainty and an unsettled market for some time and obviously there will be some losers (mainly older property owners) but the young have everything to gain.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

Yes

I have posted about the huge balance of trade deficit many times.
I have posted about how the rise in population increases our demand for essential imports, food, fuel, electronics etc. without producing any correspmsding increase in exports to pay for the imports.
I have posted how the deficit is funded by selling off our industry and businesses (some call this inward investment.)

I have posted that whilst this allows us to fund currrent consumption at the moment, the consequences will mainly be suffered in the future by the younger people.
I have posted how a lower level of our currency, whilst increasing import prices will encourage consumers to buy more home produced stuff etc.

I'm disappointed that you haven't read my many posts on this subject although to be fair, the balance of trade hasn't been an active interest on these boards, as most are convinced that the deficit doesn't matter and that 'inward' investment is a fantastic and desirable thing.

I'm sure there will be more interest in the future.

That's what I thought. The inevitable fall in sterling you're going to bang on about has only become inevitable since 23rd June after looking through the rear view mirror. It's an attempt to subtly link the fall in sterling to a moment of market clarity in viewing the trade deficit rather than being related to Brexit and a view the demand for Sterling will fall.