If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

But what is clear already is that the European country that could suffer most from Brexit, perhaps even more than Britain itself, is Ireland.

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/irishvoice/Brits-out-Fallout-for-Ireland-from-Brexit.html

Even though we now trade with dozens of countries, Britain is still our biggest market, taking nearly 20 percent of our manufactured goods and services and around 40 percent of our agricultural exports.

The idea that Ireland can negotiate a special trade deal for itself with Britain to protect all this is a non-starter. Individual member states in the EU cannot agree trade deals with non-member states. As a member of the EU's Single Market we will be part of whatever trade deal is eventually worked out between the EU as a whole and Britain.

At present, the EU imposes a four percent tariff on manufactured goods and up to 20 percent on agricultural produce imported from outside the EU. If Britain has to pay such tariffs on its exports to EU countries, it is likely to respond with similar tariffs, which would have a serious effect on Ireland.

The challenges Brexit will pose for Ireland are immense. There is now around €1 billion of trade between us and the U.K. every week, and all that will be subject to uncertainty and likely change.

For a start there will be the effect of the fall in the value of sterling which, even after recovering somewhat, was still at its lowest point in 30 years at the start of trading this week. That means Irish businesses will get less for their exports when sales are converted back into euro.

That is only part of the problem. Our food exports to Britain in future will have to compete with produce from around the world, since the U.K. will no longer be limited by the protection the EU's Common Agriculture Policy gives EU farmers through tariffs on food imports.

Ireland will be up against cheap Brazilian beef and all the rest of it, produced at Third World prices (and at Third World standards). Since we export 40 percent of all our farm produce to the U.K. that could be devastating.

It also works the other way, since the truckloads of products that come in here every week to British supermarket chains in Ireland will be cheaper, making it more difficult for home producers of microwave meals and similar ready-to-eat products to compete.

StevieJ

wotsthat wrote: »

OK let's agree the government of the day should've developed an outline exit plan. Leave knew the importance of such a plan and yet couldn't even put together half a side of A4 on the subject. Pure negligence.

.

Of course leave have a plan, that is to join EFTA, you must have noticed them avoiding questions on future immigration numbers. Here is Danny Hannon outlining some of the plan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCghi2rVaWY

setmefree2

Theresa May

she said she would not kick-off the two-year process of negotiating withdrawal until the UK’s negotiating strategy is agreed – probably not before the end of this year.

Jane_gs

Interesting to see what will happen, ups and downs in the market for sure

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

Who did you think had the legal authority in the brexit camp to say 'I will invoke article 50 after xx days'?

No-one obviously but why does that make it so difficult to suggest what a reasonable timescale might be.

We'd now be in a situation where people voted to leave knowing the aspiration was to invoke Article 50 in x months and free movement of people was at the core of the campaign.

Just helps to work out what people voted for.

We'll have to leave it to Tory party members I suppose to work out what you wanted other than to leave the EU.

cashbackproblems

Houses are affordable? Only due to cheap credit this wont continue prices are too high compared to peoples earnings it wont continue

vivatifosi

chucknorris wrote: »

The current betting is approx:

4/5 - May
4/1 - Grove
5/1 - Bojo
16/1 - Leadsom
50/1 - bar

What a difference a day makes.

chucknorris

vivatifosi wrote: »

What a difference a day makes.

Not just a day, just a few mins (As Borris withdrew), I was quite surprised at what a short price Gove was immediately after Borris withdrew (about 9/2) bearing in mind that he might appear as untrustworthy. He is currently 8/1, but who knows what other twists and turns will be introduced before this is played out.

Crashy_Time

cashbackproblems wrote: »

Houses are affordable? Only due to cheap credit this wont continue prices are too high compared to peoples earnings it wont continue

Yes, the notion of credit bubble fuelled prices as normal has been forced into people`s consciousness for well over a decade via MSM/TV, a disgrace really, but if people have not got the wit to switch off the telly and think for themselves, well they only have themselves to blame really? I think the re-education about house prices will come as a short sharp shock, rather than the slow drip down that the PTB have been aiming for.

DRP

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I think the re-education about house prices will come as a short sharp shock

looking at your username, who'd have thunk it?