If we vote for Brexit what happens

Yah_Boo_Sux

gfplux wrote: »

Talks to start on June 19th if Britain wants to turn up!

If you read the link you will see:

EU officials are yet to discuss any logistics with the UK, however

So has he even asked the UK yet if that date is OK?

And is this the same Barnier that thinks talks might be useless anyway, thanks to the EU?

Michel Barnier fears that hardened financial demands for a Brexit bill from Berlin and Paris could sink negotiations and lead to Britain crashing out of the EU.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/barnier-fears-brexit-talks-will-be-sunk-by-financial-demands-from-eu-mmq6h9smk

Looks like he's doing a great job so far. Not.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

I could not have said it better.

Hamish has long been a proponent of people in the North moving to where the jobs are (South mostly).

So in a way, he is actually a champion of increasing division within the UK, and has been for a while.

It is therefore a bit late to worry about division now.

gfplux

Arklight wrote: »

My impression of May is that she is desperately trying to keep the plates spinning long enough to win the next election, and she is well aware they are going to crash down after that, and her main plan is to batten down the hatches and weather the storm.


Her current focus appears to be much more on crushing any opposition in her own party so that she can get her 5 years in as what will probably be a very unpopular Prime Minister, both inside her party and out. I think she's seen Jeremy Corbyn see off numerous leadership challenges and rebellions even though it's left him with a depleted shadow cabinet, in pursuit of his vision of what he wants his party to be and has decided that she will have some of that too.


She is making it clear to her colleagues that she doesn't care how unpopular she is and will move them to the backbenches the moment they look like being a threat, irrespective of how important they may think they are.


Brexit will end up pleasing no-one. Regardless of what Daily Mail readers want to believe, both she and Paul Dacre (who has buried the manifesto release on the Mail's website from yesterday due to the blizzard of complaints in the comments) are well aware that the UK is 72 years too late to be an independent country.


Brexit will not be hard enough to please the Kippers (her immigration targets are only going to be met if they shut Heathrow 5 days a week) , and it will be way too hard for everyone else. Meanwhile there isn't even the glimmer of a light at the end of tunnel in her manifesto for the UK's economic future.


I don't think this will lead to a campaign to rejoin though. I think once she, Paul Dacre and Farage are done over the next two years the relationship will be so poisoned with the EU that even the most committed Europhile will accept Britain has blown it for a generation at least.


There will then be a pragmatic drifting back in, with us vastly disadvantaged compared to what we had before.

I will not say I agree with all your comments.
However your last but one para. The campaign by the Brexiters lasted 44 years or more. The campaign to rejoin has started as Hamish says. It will take a generation or longer which I agree with you. This will be beyond my lifetime but others will carry the baton.

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

In politics you cannot crush the opposition. After years of Blair reform. Corbyn and his ilk survived any attempt to reform the party and the influence of the Unions. We are heading back to a past era as far as the Labour party is concerned. Who ever wins the Middle ground over is key. Not the extremes at either end of the spectrum.

With the Tory/UKIP lurch to the right that middle ground is wide open. It will be fascinating in five years time.

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.hotelowner.co.uk/9613-brexit-uk-tourism-record/

With a 15% to 20% devaluation of the pound for over 6 months does that indicate that each visitor spent less money.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

I will not say I agree with all your comments.
However your last but one para. The campaign by the Brexiters lasted 44 years or more. The campaign to rejoin has started as Hamish says. It will take a generation or longer which I agree with you. This will be beyond my lifetime but others will carry the baton.

Good luck with that.
For the EU too, who will need it.

If (and it is "if") the EU exists in a generation the probability is that it will be a very different EU to that which exists now.
Do your homework & read up, because this scenario is still being widely discussed by people far more knowledgeable and powerful that either you or I.

In addition many of the problems discussed here pre-referendum have not gone away.
Immigration/migrants.
Banks.
Turkey.
NATO & EU combined military force.
Greece.
Stagnant economy.
High unemployment.
Banks & the Euro.
Should I go on?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

With a 15% to 20% devaluation of the pound for over 6 months does that indicate that each visitor spent less money.

Not so.
Try reading:

Some £22.5bn was spent on visits to the UK last year, up 2%

Read data from the first quarter too.
I posted a link to some of it earlier.
Still increasing.

gfplux

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

If you read the link you will see:

So has he even asked the UK yet if that date is OK?

And is this the same Barnier that thinks talks might be useless anyway, thanks to the EU?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/barnier-fears-brexit-talks-will-be-sunk-by-financial-demands-from-eu-mmq6h9smk

Looks like he's doing a great job so far. Not.

I read the link in full before posting it. It is breach of copyright to copy and paste the whole article without permission as you must know.

The object of the post was to bring peoples attention to something we should all be extremely interested in.

You are quite right the article suggest there has been no contact with Britain over this date. However don't you think when PM May called Tusk to tell him that she had called an election and therefore was unable to engage in any talks until after it something may have been said about starting the talks later in June?

It does nobody any credit to snipe at the main negociater on either side. But let me do the same, David Davis may or may not keep his job after the election. How do you like that. Does it advance the debate? Does it encourage people to post links?

Yah_Boo_Sux

gfplux wrote: »

I read the link in full before posting it. It is breach of copyright to copy and paste the whole article without permission.

The object of the post was to bring peoples attention to something we should all be extremely interested in.

You are quite right the article suggest there has been no contact with Britain over this date. However don't you think when PM May called Tusk to tell him that she had called an election and therefore was unable to engage in any talks until after it something may have been said about starting the talks later in June?

You want to guess rather than rely on fact, fine.
I prefer fact to fiction.

As far as these negotiations are concerned and given the negativity of the EU's stance so far, I prefer to wait and see what happens next rather than rely on conjecture (guesswork). Be it yours or the media's.
So far both have been equally unreliable.

The sniping so far has all been from senior EU politicians.
Oh, and from you.

Davis only responded to their fatuous remarks - after allowing those EU politicians time to make themselves appear as foolish as they in fact are.
It smacks of desperation that you imagine change where the reality is that there is no evidence that there will be any.

gfplux

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Not so.
Try reading:


Read data from the first quarter too.
I posted a link to some of it earlier.
Still increasing.

If you think those numbers suggest that each visitor spent more than 2015 in their own currency then I suggest you take another look.
Spending in pounds up 2%. For 12 months.
Over 6 months currency devalued by 15% to 20%

I am not disputing that after a Country's currency is devalued it is not more attractive. That is clearly the case as the numbers of visitors prove. However average spend in non U.K. Pounds indicates either a growth in lower income tourists or even tourists from around the world have less to spend.