The Aberdeen House Prices & Rents thread

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

IMO, for most places you need to look back to the late 90`s to see what normal valuations were like (three or four times the average wage for the area) with Aberdeen it`s different because the city and surrounding rural area has been "special" since they discovered oil off that coast, and fishing/farming
was strong years ago as well, the N East has been a very affluent area for about four decades , so all bets are off for where house prices there go with no oil business and a decimated fishing industry? Basically what I am saying is that by 2007 property would have been massively overvalued.

Prices in relation to earnings were very low in the 90s. When you say average earning what do you mean, The historical data uses male full time.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

fun4everyone wrote: »

Hogmanay in the city was dead, the place is hurting. .

I was out around the town on Hogmanay and it was busy enough.

Aberdeen today, in the middle of a slump, is still far more lively and prosperous than many other similarly sized towns in the UK.

It's gone from mega-boom territory to just well-to-do territory.

As I say, I'll be delighted if prices do crash just now as it'd be very lucky for me, but unfortunately it's not very likely.

Linda_D_2

They don't like it up 'em!

westernpromise

Unfortunately Aberdeen has been a one-trick pony economically for 40-odd years.

It's one of those places employers move people to. Very few choose to go there. It's sort of Milton Keynes without the concrete cows.

fun4everyone

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Basically what I am saying is that by 2007 property would have been massively overvalued.

Yes I agree on that, as anyone would. My point was that the OP of this thread claims

given how far prices are above 2007 levels

as if they have seen a spectacular rise. My own observation is that they have not. As we stand today your money would have been better off spread around savings accounts than placed into the Aberdeen property market in 2007/2008. That is ignoring the benefits of living rent/mortgage free if it is your home with no mortgage of course.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Aberdeen today, in the middle of a slump, is still far more lively and prosperous than many other similarly sized towns in the UK.

It's gone from mega-boom territory to just well-to-do territory.

As I say, I'll be delighted if prices do crash just now as it'd be very lucky for me, but unfortunately it's not very likely.

I disagree with the "lively" as I find the mood around the city very downbeat, the place is hurting bad. Prosperous I can give you but only on historical earnings. There are plenty of people here with money at the moment. They are rapidly being turned into people on the dole as articles are showing. I expect bookmakers and pawnshops to increase next year

westernpromise wrote: »

It's one of those places employers move people to. Very few choose to go there. It's sort of Milton Keynes without the concrete cows.

I take your point but it's not Milton Keynes. Aberdeen at least has some history.

What Aberdeen does still have going for it is that it is strong academically. Both universities are excellent in their own ways and it is not easy to get in. The students are here through choice and are vast in number. I expect this to continue and that the oil price will recover eventually. Albeit not to the same boom times as before.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

fun4everyone wrote: »

My point was that the OP of this thread claims as if they have seen a spectacular rise. My own observation is that they have not.

I guess it depends where in Aberdeen you have property.

In many parts of town prices are up 20% to 30% since 2007.

Not bad for a global financial crisis....;)

As we stand today your money would have been better off spread around savings accounts than placed into the Aberdeen property market in 2007/2008. That is ignoring the benefits of living rent/mortgage free if it is your home with no mortgage of course.

And also presumably ignoring rental yields approaching 7% to 8% over the last few years.

Anyway...

Back to the facts with actual sold prices from a few examples around different parts of town.

35 Union Grove, AB10
Dec 2014 £158,000
Dec 2007 £128,000

Laurel Bank, AB23
Jan 2015 £288,000
Feb 2006 £159,000

3 Anderson Avenue AB24
Jun 2015 £140,027
Dec 2009 £107,500

558 Clifton Road AB24
Nov 2015 £125,500
Nov 2007 £100,000

353 Clifton Road AB24
Aug 2015 £255,000
Aug 2006 £125,000

48 Albert Street AB25
Feb 2015 £255,000
Jun 2008 £196,500

etc....

Pretty clear prices have risen at a respectable rate in the decent parts of Aberdeen over the last 6-8 years since the crash, and are now markedly over 2007 levels.

And with rental yields of 7% or 8% being common, versus mortgage rates of circa 2% for those holding since 2007, the savings versus renting since then are enormous.

In 2007 the right thing to do was buy, not rent, and it's remained true ever since.

In 2016 I hope we'll get a crash, as I want to buy more, so from a purely selfish point of view I'd benefit if that happens.

Unfortunately, I don't think much is likely beyond a bit of mild softening.

Although here's hoping I'm wrong. :beer:

fun4everyone

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I guess it depends where in Aberdeen you have property.

In many parts of town prices are up 20% to 30% since 2007.

Not bad for a global financial crisis....;)

I can agree on a 20% rise with you in that timescale

What I cannot agree on is that it is "not bad". That is terrible for 8 and a half years of money locked in a reasonably illiquid asset.

And also presumably ignoring rental yields

It's not ignoring it, its pretty much the same financial benefit if you are rent free and living there which I mentioned clearly. I agree you will have made good money over and above wear on tear from this on Aberdeen property in the last 8 years.

Pretty clear prices have risen at a respectable rate in the decent parts of Aberdeen over the last 6-8 years since the crash, and are now markedly over 2007 levels.

Markedly to me would be a lot more than 2-3% pa. We can agree they are higher but Aberdeen property has significantly underperformed other financial investments.

And with rental yields of 7% or 8% being common, versus mortgage rates of circa 2% for those holding since 2007, the savings versus renting since then are enormous.

I agree the savings are big and rental yields on top (or living rent free) provide significant income/savings on top of the capital gain.

I also agree the right thing to do is buy and not rent but Aberdeen is in free fall at the moment and I would not invest there personally.

In 2016 I hope we'll get a crash, as I want to buy more, so from a purely selfish point of view I'd benefit if that happens.

I hope the opposite and that it holds up as I will not be buying any more in Aberdeen but am holding on to what I have.

I think I read somewhere else you posted you are not a landlord Hamish? If that is correct can I ask what you do with excess properties that you own. Sorry if I am mistaken or if that is too intrusive a question.

Unfortunately, I don't think much is likely beyond a bit of mild softening

I don't think there will be a full on 2007-08 crash again but we have already had FAR more than a "mild softening". Aberdeen is struggling badly in all departments (academia aside) at the moment.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

fun4everyone wrote: »

I think I read somewhere else you posted you are not a landlord Hamish? If that is correct can I ask what you do with excess properties that you own.

You read it on HPC.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/48163-aberdeen-aspc-stats/page-204

So in the interests of transparency, which HPC poster are you?;)

I've always been very clear about my property ownership, both on the Aberdeen thread on HPC (which you can look back on) and here.

I own two properties currently and neither is rented out. They are for personal/family use.

I now wish to buy more properties for personal/family use which will also not be rented out.

Pretty straightforward really.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

fun4everyone wrote: »

I don't think there will be a full on 2007-08 crash again but we have already had FAR more than a "mild softening".

I would agree re 2007/2008.

In terms of 'mild softening', none of the actual sold prices averages show anything more than this, and the stats don't lie... That may change in future, and I hope it does, but at the moment it's a fact.

I'd agree the Oilies are stuffed for a while, and I feel bad for many of them, but I never fail to be surprised at how resilient Aberdeen (outwith oil) can be and so far this is proving to be little different.

If this current dip provides me with a great buying opportunity then so be it, and I'll happily take advantage, but I'm not overly optimistic it will.

I note Crashy Time refuses to predict either the size or scale of any possible price falls.

Probably not a surprise, given his previous abysmal record in that regard, but you'd have thought he'd be keen to rebuild credibility after his previous failings.

Ah well....

fun4everyone

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You read it on HPC.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/48163-aberdeen-aspc-stats/page-204

So in the interests of transparency, which HPC poster are you?

Yeah that makes sense thanks. I am not on HPC (that is the truth I promise!) but I did go on there and look the other night as it is referenced on here so much. Specifically the Aberdeen thread. I also found the idea that there was a forum devoted to the idea there is going to be a house price crash hilarious in itself.

I now wish to buy more properties for personal/family use which will also not be rented out.

Fair enough. I do own property that I rent out. Yields in Aberdeen at the moment are terrible and supply FAR outstrips demand.

For what its worth I do believe house prices in Aberdeen would have rocketed specifically in 2014 but the independence referendum caused a significant wobble. Once that was history the falling oil price took over.