The Aberdeen House Prices & Rents thread

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Didn`t you used to think that "supply and demand" meant that prices and rents would always shoot for the moon Hamish?

Nope.

The imbalance between supply and demand sets prices. If there's more demand than there is supply then house prices rise. And vice versa. (before you start, credit is a component of effective demand)

But anyway...

When you and all the HPC crowd were hyperventilating that prices would crash 50% in 2008, I noted you were wrong and explained why.

I was right.

When you called the house price crash every year since under your DWS username on HPC you've been wrong. Whereas I've noted there's a shortage and prices will rise.

Again, I've been right.

Now I want to buy more property so snapping up a bargain sounds pretty good to me. And Aberdeen does seem to be softening.

But it's nowhere near a full blown crash yet, and probably won't be this year either. Lets get through the next 12 months and see who's right.

I'd love it if you finally, after all these years, and just for once, got to be right.

It only seems fair after all to let you have a moment in the sun, and it would suit me down to the ground if you were.

But unfortunately I suspect, like every other year, that's highly unlikely...;)

kabayiri

The core issue is job security surely?

The people who lose jobs in Aberdeen will be relatively highly skilled I expect. What possibility is there that they can find work elsewhere in the world?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

The core issue is job security surely?

The people who lose jobs in Aberdeen will be relatively highly skilled I expect. What possibility is there that they can find work elsewhere in the world?

The oil downturn is global.

However many of the people coming back from offshore are quickly picking up work in other related fields both to some extent in the NE of Scotland and even more so around the UK.

At a lot less money, for sure, but still what would be considered good money for onshore jobs.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Anyway Crashy, you've avoided the question again, how far and how fast will prices crash?

Can I can get another one for 50% off by Xmas?

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Anyway Crashy, you've avoided the question again, how far and how fast will prices crash?

Can I can get another one for 50% off by Xmas?

The question is at what point will you try to pretend that you were on-side with the HPC thinking all along, and tell us that you predicted the crash? :rotfl:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The question is at what point will you try to pretend that you were on-side with the HPC thinking all along, and tell us that you predicted the crash? :rotfl:

I have no desire to be "onside with HPC thinking".

Look at the evidence man...

You're still renting having bought at least one house for your landlords, McGlashan gave up and moved to the wilds of Dumfries where he's now given in and bought, CCC is alternating stints in his Mum's spare room with renting at exorbitant prices, and the Scottish HPC section is dead as the proverbial DoDo.

I bought, used 8 years of record low rates to all but pay off the mortgage, saved myself £150K+ compared to renting the same place since, and now am in the market to buy again. If prices now fall that's little short of fantastic for me.

Extremely lucky, I'll grant you, but I won't say no....

Anyway Crashy, you've avoided the question again, how far and how fast will prices crash?

Can I can get another one for 50% off by Xmas?

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I have no desire to be "onside with HPC thinking".

Look at the evidence man...

You're still renting having bought at least one house for your landlords, McGlashan gave up and moved to the wilds of Dumfries where he's now given in and bought, CCC is alternating stints in his Mum's spare room with renting at exorbitant prices, and the Scottish HPC section is dead as the proverbial DoDo.

I bought, used 8 years of record low rates to all but pay off the mortgage, saved myself £150K+ compared to renting the same place since, and now am in the market to buy again. If prices now fall that's little short of fantastic for me.

Extremely lucky, I'll grant you, but I won't say no....

Anyway Crashy, you've avoided the question again, how far and how fast will prices crash?

Can I can get another one for 50% off by Xmas?

We need to see how peak price Aberdeen (when you bought) compares to post-oil Aberdeen before you dust off your trumpet Hamish.

fun4everyone

Rents are in freefall in Aberdeen. A friend of mine who is also a landlord there and myself were discussing this last night. He has had to reduce his rent to keep current tenants. Everything is going for far below "market" rent. Both quality property and the cheaper stuff.


Hogmanay in the city was dead, the place is hurting. I believe it will come back in a few years but not to the glory times again.

fun4everyone

As for the house price graph since 2007 this is not what I experience in reality. Sure prices are higher but I would far rather have been in the stock market in 2007, held through the crash and kept my money in there till now, would have been far better off. I reckon house prices have increased about 2% per year on average starting from just before the crash which is poor.

Crashy_Time

fun4everyone wrote: »

As for the house price graph since 2007 this is not what I experience in reality. Sure prices are higher but I would far rather have been in the stock market in 2007, held through the crash and kept my money in there till now, would have been far better off. I reckon house prices have increased about 2% per year on average starting from just before the crash which is poor.

IMO, for most places you need to look back to the late 90`s to see what normal valuations were like (three or four times the average wage for the area) with Aberdeen it`s different because the city and surrounding rural area has been "special" since they discovered oil off that coast, and fishing/farming
was strong years ago as well, the N East has been a very affluent area for about four decades , so all bets are off for where house prices there go with no oil business and a decimated fishing industry? Basically what I am saying is that by 2007 property would have been massively overvalued.