Current market carnage - anyone selling or buying?

EdGasket

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Stay diversified is my advice.

But seems like everything is falling at the moment. There seems little point in trying to pick a geographic market any more because they all move together. May as well just buy a world ETF and be done with it. I agree though that individual shares will vary greatly but don't see much point trying to guess which of Europe, UK, Asia, or US will do better as they all seem to move pretty much in concert.

HardCoreProgrammer

Got most of my money out of Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets in the summer (always avoided China because CCP calls the shots on whether it goes up or down), but still got burnt by the market falls in UK and Japan (chose a currency hedged fund). Finally decided to stop loss for Japan but kept UK going.

Lots of new reports now saying worse is to come for Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets. Probably is not time to be greedy yet, but will consider drip feeding back in.

Regarding the debate "timing the market" vs "time in market", personally I think it is a combination of both. Sticking to "time in market" like gospel will lose money. I am glad to have got out of AP and EM, and avoided the major falls. If I got more out when FTSE was >7000 last spring ...

InvestInPoker

HardCoreProgrammer wrote: »

Sticking to "time in market" like gospel will lose money.

bowlhead99

HardCoreProgrammer wrote: »

Regarding the debate "timing the market" vs "time in market", personally I think it is a combination of both. Sticking to "time in market" like gospel will lose money.

To finish the sentence

... like gospel will lose money on paper at times and so if you need the money in the short or medium term you should probably not have entered the riskier markets in the first place. There aren't any markets that are down since, say, 1965.

I do see what you're saying about both having an influence but if you're able to smooth timing effects (eg by not putting it all in at once and not needing it all back at once) then the greatest indicator of potential returns is how long you leave it alone - of course, rebalancing the things that are getting overweight is generally fine

I am glad to have got out of AP and EM, and avoided the major falls. If I got more out when FTSE was >7000 last spring ...

Counterpoint:
... If you got more out when FTSE was >7000 last spring... you would have been lucky to have taken money out at the top of the market on a hunch, which could have led to a mistaken belief that you were a good judge of future market direction, and could have caused cataclysmic losses (or missing of monster gains) at some point in the future due to undeserved faith in your own, fallible, beliefs.

So perhaps it's quite lucky that you stayed in some markets that didn't do well because they help you appreciate that human judgement is flawed and as a consequence your guess on EM and EP which happened to be right this time might be spectacularly wrong next time.

Superscrooge

Interesting article that helps put the current market turmoil in perspective

https://www.fidelity.co.uk/investor/markets-insights/daily-investment-insight/details.page?whereParameter=daily-investment-insight/the-bear-facts

jimjames

Considering the number of people who posted over the last few years that they thought the market was too expensive, I'd be expecting them to all jump in and buy now. Or was that just an excuse not to invest at all?

nb73

bowlhead99 wrote: »

There aren't any markets that are down since, say, 1965

Market for flared trousers has taken a hammering mind

bowlhead99

nb73 wrote: »

Market for flared trousers has taken a hammering mind

Yes , and likewise for typewriters etc. But the market for clothing and business equipment generally will have served a "buy and hold" investor very well, whether or not they bothered to exit when FTSE was at X or Dow was at Y last year.

masonic

jimjames wrote: »

Considering the number of people who posted over the last few years that they thought the market was too expensive, I'd be expecting them to all jump in and buy now. Or was that just an excuse not to invest at all?

They'll be waiting for the all clear from Andrew Roberts of RBS

HardCoreProgrammer

bowlhead99 wrote: »

... If you got more out when FTSE was >7000 last spring... you would have been lucky to have taken money out at the top of the market on a hunch, which could have led to a mistaken belief that you were a good judge of future market direction, and could have caused cataclysmic losses (or missing of monster gains) at some point in the future due to undeserved faith in your own, fallible, beliefs.

I am not a perfect at timing, and I have never aimed/claimed to be.
I do not aim to get the top/bottom of a cycle, nor do I dip in/out of the market trying to make little gains.
What I try to do is: pull out when I see things going crazy, and jump in when there is "blood on the street".
Fund managers cannot do this for you - if you invest in a tracker, they have to buy shares with all the money. You have to make the decision yourself if you think the market is too high.

You may call it timing the market. I call it not putting my money at excessive risk. The market being high increases risk to your investments and you need to reassess accordingly.
The fact is, by pulling out of EM and AP (not at the top, but this is never my aim), I have avoided paper losses which I would have suffered had I done nothing.