Current market carnage - anyone selling or buying?

TheTracker

Sam_J12 wrote: »

By gains I mean the share price has increased over that period.

In or ex- dividends?

Even if it has gone down the last 4 months?

Sam_J12

TheTracker wrote: »

In or ex- dividends?

Even if it has gone down the last 4 months?

It is a rule of thumb based on the idea of momentum in stocks. There are lots of studies that demonstrate recent performance is a very good predictor of short term future performance (usually over periods of 3/6/12 months). There are quite a few now talking about the idea of marrying value with momentum i.e. identify good "value" stocks but only purchase when momentum suggest the stock price is going to rise in the near future.

There are lots of momentum metrics (look up "momentum factor" for example) but just the raw stock price turns out not to be a bad one. Total returns including dividend is likely to be a better indicator than just stock price but probably not that different in most cases.

It is just an idea with a decent amount of evidence supporting it - I am not claiming it is some foolproof or divine method that guarantees anything.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

Sam_J12 wrote: »

I'm not sure - I think there is plenty of room for further falls. I would personally wait until the stock starts rising again before putting any more money in. Get the market to confirm your suspicions first before investing. I don't see any particular reason the stock can't fall below 100 over the next couple of years.

I think you misunderstand me and my investment style and habits and wish to read only the ridicule I receive from the likes of bowlhead.

I gave up long ago detailing investments on here because someone will always slam you down.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

Sam_J12 wrote: »

As a rule of thumb, I wouldn't buy unless the stock showed gains over the previous six month period.

I'd not use that rule.

Broken_Biscuits

On the panic and sell everything front...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12093807/RBS-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears.html

It did make me giggle.

Dangerous Title that doesn't really match the contents.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

I think a lot here are realizing heavy losses due to diworsification as opposed to diversification.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

I recall someone on here maybe 2 years ago going on about how they were topping up on BP. Oil of course has gone down the swanea.

Sam_J12

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

I think you misunderstand me and my investment style and habits and wish to read only the ridicule I receive from the likes of bowlhead.

I gave up long ago detailing investments on here because someone will always slam you down.

I have literally no idea what your investment style is or what other posters say about you. I just don't like buying a stock that has been falling consistently for five years, especially one in a sector that looks like it could get a further hammering in the coming year.

If I see a stock that I think represent value, I prefer to wait to see the market confirm this for me. I won't buy it at the absolute bottom this way, but there is no way to buy things at the absolute bottom other than blind luck.

gadgetmind

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

And with a nice income of over 12% currently I am a little tempted with this one.

The word is "currently". That dividend is uncovered and they are consuming their internal organs to maintain it. Their previous tricks to boost it ended in utter disaster!

A lot of their holdings are also struggling not only with capital but with dividends, so expect that 12% to be halved fairly soon. Of course, a lot of this is in the price.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

Sam_J12 wrote: »

I have literally no idea what your investment style is or what other posters say about you. I just don't like buying a stock that has been falling consistently for five years, especially one in a sector that looks like it could get a further hammering in the coming year.

If I see a stock that I think represent value, I prefer to wait to see the market confirm this for me. I won't buy it at the absolute bottom this way, but there is no way to buy things at the absolute bottom other than blind luck.

Sorry I think I misread your post as having a pop. Just paranoia. Not sure why I get that in this area of the forum!