Shells proposed purchase of BG

Mr_K

As a BG holder I'm minded to take all Shell shares, if only because of the big dividends Shell pay (might not in the future but who knows longterm?).

In the BG documentation it does say Shell's intention of paying dividends of $1.88 per ordinary share in 2015 and at least that amount in 2016.

Glen_Clark

cloud_dog wrote: »

I can't prolong this laborious conversation much longer.... I have said a number of times I have no issue with your position, it is as valid a position as anything.

I don't appreciate how you have phrased your points and then hide behind weasel words. It's a poor show. I will leave you to have the last word.

Just to recap.
This is what you said above 'You've only come out against the deal since the dramatic collapse in the price or oil'
A quick search of the forum has clearly proven you were wrong. You should have admitted that, rather than accuse others of the 'weasel words' you are using yourself before throwing your toys out of the pram and going off in a huff.

Glen_Clark

Mr_K wrote: »

As a BG holder I'm minded to take all Shell shares, if only because of the big dividends Shell pay (might not in the future but who knows longterm?).

In the BG documentation it does say Shell's intention of paying dividends of $1.88 per ordinary share in 2015 and at least that amount in 2016.

The danger with that is that if the deal goes through Shell shares are likely to fall a bit on the news, and if Shell Management stick to their claim this deal will pay and they can afford to pay a dividend when they can't, they will further damage the long term future of Shell - (I expect they will have filled their boots and moved on by then)
But the biggest danger is that if Shell shareholders vote the deal down (unlikely because many also hold BG shares, nevertheless its possible) then BG shares will crash.

C_Mababejive

Does anyone know about CGT issues with this deal (second ask !) Ta..

cloud_dog

C_Mababejive wrote: »

Does anyone know about CGT issues with this deal (second ask !) Ta..

Hi.... Have a look at this GOV site. Simple answer is that if the cash from the TO takes you over your CGT limit for this FY then, yes, you will incur CGT.

Unsure if you were to opt to purchase additional shares instead of all / part of the cash if this would still be treated as a capital gain (prior to the purchase) and therefore still incur the CGT.

EdGasket

Not looking at all good for oil with Iran planning to up production and exports threefold to over 3Bn barrels per day. I've sold out of Shell completely now. The BG deal is nuts but will go through because the management don't want to lose face and the major shareholders hold both Shell and BG but will most likely dump their new Shell shares and keep the cash. Voting is also rigged with only 50% needed on the Shell side. Had to get out; sick of watching it tank every day and only ever news about the world drowning in oil.

Glen_Clark

EdGasket wrote: »

Not looking at all good for oil with Iran planning to up production and exports threefold to over 3Bn barrels per day. I've sold out of Shell completely now. The BG deal is nuts but will go through because the management don't want to lose face and the major shareholders hold both Shell and BG but will most likely dump their new Shell shares and keep the cash. Voting is also rigged with only 50% needed on the Shell side. Had to get out; sick of watching it tank every day and only ever news about the world drowning in oil.

I agree with all of that, except I don't know whether its wise to sell Shell now or not.

EdGasket

Glen_Clark wrote: »

I agree with all of that, except I don't know whether its wise to sell Shell now or not.

If we knew that we would indeed be wise. Broker recs are still around £20 but so they were at the time AAL was falling and look where they are now approx. £2.70 ! The only thing holding Shell up is the yield (which like the miners and Tesco will be unsustainable) and inertia - people like me unwilling to sell until the pain gets too much. Actually with oil forecast to be below the level at which they can make a profit for a long time plus the cash being wasted on BG, I would never forgive myself for holding and watching them sink to £2 a share. On the other hand if they recover due to, well I don't know, then its c'est la vie I suppose.

cloud_dog

I believe (don't have access to a link of anything atm) that the 'Guvnor' has confirmed the dividend policy (payment) for 2016 and 2017 (approx £1.30 based on exchange rates etc).

So at the present price you are looking at getting a 9%+ return although, what effect the likely eventual reduction in dividend will have on the SP is a little unknown but could be significant.

EdGasket

I thought what you refer to was an old statement at the time of the merger announcement and he confirmed no divi cut for 2015/16 but I stand to be corrected. But whatever he said, it was when oil was $60 a barrel and its half that now; things have changed.