HPI estimates over the next two years

cells

10% to 20%

padington wrote: »

Cities become about 15% more efficient every time they double in size and 15 % more industrious. This means they out compete smaller settlements. In a world where there is no need to have to spread out population anymore and with a natural human tendency to live a social life with others, this dynamic is finally working on full cylinders. In London this dynamic is made even more acute by the fact it's the world favourite city.

The result is and will continue to be a huge increasing demand to live in cities, especially in London. This will mean house prices in cities will vastly outpace prices elsewhere like never before, all things equal.

In my opinion of course. Everyone to their own.

So what you are saying is if London's population grows then prices will go up.....and that London populations will grow strongly as people like joining the biggest tribes

Only problems is that living in London doesn't make you a member of a 9 million member tribe. Your tribes size or your monkeysphere is dependant on you and is typically about 150 strong (most of whom will be your relatives) and is not much dependant on the town you live in

padington

10% to 20%

cells wrote: »

So what you are saying is if London's population grows then prices will go up.....and that London populations will grow strongly as people like joining the biggest tribes

Only problems is that living in London doesn't make you a member of a 9 million member tribe. Your tribes size or your monkeysphere is dependant on you and is typically about 150 strong (most of whom will be your relatives) and is not much dependant on the town you live in

Tribes these days work and live in larger communities. The largest and most respected communities are the most successful. London currently is ticking that box in a big way and looks set to continue to do so. Everyone in London benefits from its economy of scale.

Everyone can use the tube or have a drink up the shard, struggle less to find work, benefits from a larger gene pool, enjoy more international friends visiting them, see more amazing free cultural delights, find it easier to pull a good crack team together to pull off a crazy idea, more often than not have a buddy available for a night out, see more of their sporting heroes in real life more often whilst also meeting more diverse people with more stories to tell.

That's why people migrate to cities. Everyone benefits.

Closer we are to each other, more stuff we can get done with less energy spent.

London house prices rises for averaged priced properties are far far from being 'done' as long as cheap money is washing around the global system or taxes for averaged priced properties become no more onerous.

mwpt

5% to 10%

chucknorris wrote: »

Our long term plan is to winter in Spain, we haven't really even started to explore Spain yet, the first two regions that I want to get to know are the Cost de la luz and the Tabernas desert in Almeria (for anyone that doesn't know, that's where a few of the Clint Eastwood westerns were shot, including 'the good, the bad and the ugly' and the two 'dollars' fims, so stop watching Clint and look at the landscape, if you want to see what it looks like).

I've never been that far south in Spain. Vast amounts of the middle of the country are dead end imo, though the road network is pretty amazing (euro grant I believe). Parts of Galicia and Asturias are absolutely beautiful if you're interested. Real hidden gems and would be much more internationally popular if they were on the med with warmer water. But they're not winter destinations and frankly the weather is volatile even in summer.

Btw, depending on if you prefer the better weather of the med and the crowds that go with it, or the more relaxed vibe, you could look at South West France, the area north and south of Biarritz. It's Atlantic, so weather not as good as med, but lots of cycle tracks, walks, beaches and Spain just south with easy reach to beautiful San Sebastian. And rugby territory. People are friendly too.

Then of course you've got other types of destinations like Lake Konstanz in Germany. One of my favourite places. Or the countryside south of Munich with copious lakes and mountains nearby, and weather that is proper weather.

I know this sounds weird, but if I was going to move away from the UK for only part of the year, I wouldn't really be considering much of Europe during the winter. The weather will be better, yes, but towns become dull and lifeless (here, I meant the summer towns that thrive on tourism). There is something to be said for having a well maintained, warm house in the countryside of the UK, even during winter.

If I were you I'd look at travelling to the Southern Hemisphere for that, and specifically, Cape Town. Have you seen the weather they're getting for the test cricket? House prices would still be very affordable out there on GBP. My uncle from New York retired and moved out to Cape Town many years ago and doesn't regret it at all.

Conrad

20% to 30%

20%.
Just because some parts of the SE have had massive HPI, lots of areas have had little or modest growth and these areas will experience large up-lifts going forwards.


As to those saying foreign investors will pull-out, this fails to spot that these investors probably have no better place to put their money what with the Chinese stock market worries and much unrest in the world.

People have this idea that these investors are assiduously monitoring returns, but most will see UK property as a simple and safe money store regardless.

chucknorris

Flat (-5% to +5%)

mwpt wrote: »

I've never been that far south in Spain. Vast amounts of the middle of the country are dead end imo, though the road network is pretty amazing (euro grant I believe). Parts of Galicia and Asturias are absolutely beautiful if you're interested. Real hidden gems and would be much more internationally popular if they were on the med with warmer water. But they're not winter destinations and frankly the weather is volatile even in summer.

Btw, depending on if you prefer the better weather of the med and the crowds that go with it, or the more relaxed vibe, you could look at South West France, the area north and south of Biarritz. It's Atlantic, so weather not as good as med, but lots of cycle tracks, walks, beaches and Spain just south with easy reach to beautiful San Sebastian. And rugby territory. People are friendly too.

Then of course you've got other types of destinations like Lake Konstanz in Germany. One of my favourite places. Or the countryside south of Munich with copious lakes and mountains nearby, and weather that is proper weather.

I know this sounds weird, but if I was going to move away from the UK for only part of the year, I wouldn't really be considering much of Europe during the winter. The weather will be better, yes, but towns become dull and lifeless (here, I meant the summer towns that thrive on tourism). There is something to be said for having a well maintained, warm house in the countryside of the UK, even during winter.

If I were you I'd look at travelling to the Southern Hemisphere for that, and specifically, Cape Town. Have you seen the weather they're getting for the test cricket? House prices would still be very affordable out there on GBP. My uncle from New York retired and moved out to Cape Town many years ago and doesn't regret it at all.

I worked in Friedrichshafen for about 4 months so I (used to) know that lake on the German/Austrian/Swiss border quite well, although that was over 30 years ago, so I've virtually forgotten it now. But the two things that I remember most are the thunderstorms (straight out of a Frankenstein movie) and the huge spiders (that ate the mosquitoes, so they were left over my bed untouched)

I love cricket, but my wife hates it, but more important than that is that our dog goes where we go, and I wouldn't put him in the cargo hold of a plane, so that means driving. We took our last dog to the Costs Del Sol by car ferry to Santander, then drove down. Costa Del Sol was a big mistake, we now know that we want quieter rural areas. We would only go in winter, it is more about escaping our winters, but exploring Spain and the Algarve is a bonus. We heard that the Cost De La Luz is very quiet in the winter, as is the Tabernas desert in Almeria, that is where a lot of westerns were filmed (the good, the bad and the ugly, fistfull of dollars, for a few dollars more and once upon a time in the west etc.) I've recently been looking at those film clips on you tube to look at the landscapes, but now I can't get all that western music out of my head!