HPI estimates over the next two years

cells

For London...

What are the views of the members for HPI over the next two years.
I am doing some calculations/estimates and one of the key variables is what HPI will do within the next two years so wanted to see what other views/reasons are

cells

10% to 20%

My guess is 10% but I quite badly underestimated HPI over the last two years so I wanted to ask the views of others and their reasons

padington

10% to 20%

About 14% increase over the next two years for me. Maybe something like 9% next year and 5% the year after.

Interest rates and btl rules will bite by 2017. Also prime sales will pull down the average.

However I would also say the upside chance of it going higher is better than the downside chance of it going lower.

By 2017 we should be very firmly positioned as the worlds favourite capital city.

Brighton might do better though. The i360 will take London's favourite beach to a new market altogether.

cells

10% to 20%

Just in case its not clear please vote for the sum of the two years. So if you think house prices will be 20% higher in two years time vote 20% dont vote 10% pa

chucknorris

Flat (-5% to +5%)

The bands are not well defined, there is no band that covers the range between -5.01% to -9.99%, -10%, +10% and others, fall within two different bands, and IMO there is virtually no chance of 30% to 40% or over 40%. If I designed this poll, the bands would have been:

> 10% loss
-5% to -9.99%
0% to -4.99%
0.01% to 5%
5.01% to 10%
10.01% to 15%
>15.01% to 20%
>20%

In which case I would have chosen 0.01% to 5%, my second choice would have been tough for me to pick between 0% to -4.99% and 5.01% to 10%.

chewmylegoff

40% to 50%

London on average will be up about 70% over the next two years but there will be pockets which experience dramatic falls like Wood Green, which I expect to decline by 104.5% by next Thursday.

Mistermeaner

The pound will be revised at 50% of its current value (in southern England) so house prices will more than double (great news)

In northern England the pound will remain at its current value so little or no hpi. Boo hiss

In the people's republic of Scotland everything including people's property has been nationalised so everything is worthless. 100% drop

On average this equates to about 10-20% hpi so great news for the economy

padington

10% to 20%

chewmylegoff wrote: »

London on average will be up about 70% over the next two years but there will be pockets which experience dramatic falls like Wood Green, which I expect to decline by 104.5% by next Thursday.

Terraced houses in wood green up 14.8 % in the last 12 months.

mwpt

5% to 10%

padington wrote: »

Terraced houses in wood green up 14.8 % in the last 12 months.

Sorry for the off topic, but could you link (rightmove, zoopla) a decently priced house in wood green, close to transport. I'm curious which are the "decent" areas and reasonably priced homes.

michaels

Where is the 'Hamish prediction thread' for this year?

chucknorris

Flat (-5% to +5%)

michaels wrote: »

Where is the 'Hamish prediction thread' for this year?

He declined (has no view). Just realised that you said 'thread', he has posted it now.