HPI estimates over the next two years

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

I have no view and dont want to bias the result by voting

michaels wrote: »

Where is the 'Hamish prediction thread' for this year?

Coming soon..

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

I have no view and dont want to bias the result by voting

chucknorris wrote: »

He declined (has no view).

On London prices, other than to note I expect the the rest of the country to catch up a bit more at some point, rather than the gap between London and the rest of the UK to keep growing at the rates it has been.

thequant

10% to 20%

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

On London prices, other than to note I expect the the rest of the country to catch up a bit more at some point, rather than the gap between London and the rest of the UK to keep growing at the rates it has been.

I have to disagree with this, I think it will continue to grow.

In the past it has always been the pattern that the rest of the country catches up with London after the initial growth starts there first.

However since the last crash we have seen London and the SE sail past previous peaks, whereas lots of places in the north are still below them.

The difference ? London really does a demand & supply imbalance and as such prices are held up fundamentals. In the rest of the country previous highs were a result of reckless lending, this time round there is no Northern Rock with 125% mortgages to fuel HPI in the north.

In the north, you never see stories of cupboards being sold for £100's of K, 20 families living in a 2 bed flat, people living in sheds outside, people putting sheds in their living room, people renting the space under the staircase etc,etc etc

padington

10% to 20%

Digital revolution is kicking in which gives huge traction for the biggest mega city. The dynamic has changed. Don't expect history to repeats itself.

This time it is different.

Expect London prices vrs UK average to hit 4x then 5x then 6x eventually.

However there will of course be ups and downs on the way and other areas adopted by the geeks shall inherent some of the earth also.

Jonbvn

padington wrote: »

This time it is different.

Oh no! Not the new paradigm argument!

I anticipate an ebola outbreak in Wood Green a week next Thursday. All properties inside the quarantined area are rendered valueless overnight:p

kinger101

10% to 20%

Someone might be upset you didn't specifically include a -50% by Christmas option.

padington

10% to 20%

Jonbvn wrote: »

Oh no! Not the new paradigm argument!

I anticipate an ebola outbreak in Wood Green a week next Thursday. All properties inside the quarantined area are rendered valueless overnight:p

What else explains the current market activity ? Why is all the cheap money heading to almost all of the worlds key cities and almost nowhere else apart from some relatively minor ripples so far ?

Genuinely open to other ideas.

mwpt

5% to 10%

padington wrote: »

Digital revolution is kicking in which gives huge traction for the biggest mega city.

I'm not following. It could be argued (and I'm not necessarily doing so) that digital revolution will result in many more jobs morphing into jobs that can be distributed and/or outsourced. Digital hubs could pop up in Manchester, Birmingham, anywhere. Outsourcing continues to grow in IT sector. Government buy in to digital age could result in policies requiring or incentivising corporate employers to allow remote (from home) working, leading to less pressure on transport and London housing.

I don't know what will happen but it seems odd to argue that "digital revolution" means more congested cities.

chewmylegoff

40% to 50%

padington wrote: »

Terraced houses in wood green up 14.8 % in the last 12 months.

Past performance is not relevant to future performance. I predict there will be a massive crash as Padington will contract a minor bout of 'flu and be unable to post six threads a week about Wood Green being a super special "sweet spot". It will emerge that his one man ramping show has been entirely responsible for HPI in Wood Green and without it the supports will be kicked out and prices will become negative.

If I owned a terraced house in Wood Green I would sell it immediately and invest the entire proceeds in physical silver which I would keep under the floorboards in my mum's house. Just passing on a helpful tip....

padington

10% to 20%

mwpt wrote: »

I'm not following. It could be argued (and I'm not necessarily doing so) that digital revolution will result in many more jobs morphing into jobs that can be distributed and/or outsourced. Digital hubs could pop up in Manchester, Birmingham, anywhere. Outsourcing continues to grow in IT sector. Government buy in to digital age could result in policies requiring or incentivising corporate employers to allow remote (from home) working, leading to less pressure on transport and London housing.

I don't know what will happen but it seems odd to argue that "digital revolution" means more congested cities.

Why are they getting so congested then ? I would argue because we can get more done closer we are to others. The digital revolution has freed people up to be more able to move around and less restricted to having to work near widely distributed resources and they are choosing to be near each other.

Now there is less reason to live near the docks or the mines or the farms and people are voting with their feat

Cities with larger population become more effecient. Less energy is required for a greater outcome and your chances of finding a good mate is increased. The economy of scale means things like the tube can be created. Formation of crack teams to conquer certain service industries become possible. The best parties can be held with the minimum of fuss getting home for all.

Have you noticed how no one wants to talk on the phone any more? Everyone wants to 'have coffee'. We are social beings. We like to be in a really big tribe and really big tribes empower everyone in them.

We shake hands to partially get the feel of someone and show others our own character. We build trust through touch. A supportive squeeze of the shoulder by a good boss can be enough to keep a worker feeling happy for the rest of the day. The thrill of what may happen after work with the pretty colleague keeps the young and some of the old feeling alive.

We'll learn to love virtual reality but never more than meeting our favourite people in the same bar (or beach) in real life.

This is why Facebook, Twitter and Skype and !!!!!! are so successful, they tap into the key emotional needs gained by sharing intimate time with others. They often don't truelly satiate those emotional needs as well as they should though. Often they give us a feeling that we are missing out on something we can't put our finger on (real life).