and the biggest threat to the UK economy in 2016 is...

Moby

chucknorris wrote: »

I just looked on betfair, it is closer than I thought it would be, it's approx:

4/7 Stay in EU
7/4 Leave EU
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739911

The other issue of course is that it is clear Scotland will vote Yes, while England is far more uncertain. If we vote to come out that will be bound to trigger a new referendum on Scottish independence. There is no way Scottish people will be dragged out of Europe! So we could end up with us both leaving the EU and splitting the UK. At that point we would definitely achieved 'little Englander' status in the world!

What is missing in the debate is the positive message about the EU and what it offers!

chucknorris

Moby wrote: »

The other issue of course is that it is clear Scotland will vote Yes, while England is far more uncertain. If we vote to come out that will be bound to trigger a new referendum on Scottish independence. There is no way Scottish people will be dragged out of Europe! So we could end up with us both leaving the EU and splitting the UK. At that point we would definitely achieved 'little Englander' status in the world!

What is missing in the debate is the positive message about the EU and what it offers!

I don't think it will come to that, but if it did, do you really think that Scotland would be daft enough to leave the UK with a severely depressed oil price? Surely it would be a total economic disaster for them?

Moby

Generali wrote: »

Rich people vote, poor people don't. Old people vote, young people don't. So the bottom line is, what do rich old people want vis-a-vis the EU?

The polls are looking very strongly in favour of staying in and people do like to vote with the status quo.

The polls are generally going through a period of 'self reflection' at present. There was an interesting analysis of this on Sunday Politics recently. Don't depend on them too much at present. Things are volatile.

CLAPTON

The young voters in the London and the SE will need to decide whether the extra coffee shops and restaurants generated by the immigrant community, are worth the inability to buy a modest family sized house while they are still young enough to reproduce.

For that under 40s group it is a reality straightforward choice.

There are more sophisticated arguments about the restricts on trade and restrictive practices enforced by the EU but that depends more whether you believe in free trade or not:
it seems that most economists have abandoned any advocacy of free trade these days and like the comfort blanket of EU tariff barriers.

Moby

chucknorris wrote: »

I don't think it will come to that, but if it did, do you really think that Scotland would be daft enough to leave the UK with a severely depressed oil price? Surely it would be a total economic disaster for them?

I think Scotland is very pro EU and it has been for many years. The oil price will fluctuate and the SNP will price this in to their arguments. The point is as well regarding Scotish independence.....it's an emotional thing, economics held sway....just ....last time but more and more young people are nationalists and they are the expanding part of the electorate there.

mayonnaise

stator wrote: »

It won't.

Because "we'll still be in the EEA or EFTA like Norway or Switzerland", right? :rotfl:

stator

mayonnaise wrote: »

Because "we'll still be in the EEA or EFTA like Norway or Switzerland", right? :rotfl:

Of course. Leaving the EU wouldn't happen overnight. It would involve lots of negotiations and of course the UK would join/rejoin the free trade area.

Graham_Devon

mayonnaise wrote: »

Because "we'll still be in the EEA or EFTA like Norway or Switzerland", right? :rotfl:

Rather than sticking rolling heads on the end of vague statements - why not tell us what YOU think will happen should we leave the EU?

Do you believe there will be no trade with the EU?

If so, do you believe that the rest of the EU are ready to cut off their noses?

If so, do you believe this is a great group to be in?

Give us an opinion for once - it's Christmas. Otherwise you'll end the year with 12m worth of laughing at everyone else's opinion but unable to add anything to the plate yourself.

chucknorris

Moby wrote: »

I think Scotland is very pro EU and it has been for many years. The oil price will fluctuate and the SNP will price this in to their arguments. The point is as well regarding Scotish independence.....it's an emotional thing, economics held sway....just ....last time but more and more young people are nationalists and they are the expanding part of the electorate there.

So you do think that they might be that daft then.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

stator wrote: »

of course the UK would join/rejoin the free trade area.

Being part of the single market requires free movement of people.