and the biggest threat to the UK economy in 2016 is...

vivatifosi

Brexit and Brexit...

Per Bloomberg, it accounts for a whopping 58% of the risk. Still worth it?

Sorry, can't get a small section of text to paste on this tablet, but here's the hyperlink...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-23/-brexit-and-brexit-the-biggest-risks-to-u-k-economy-in-2016

Generali

You'd be nuts to quit the EU. Maybe even madder than the Scots voting to quit the UK.

mystic_trev

Generali wrote: »

You'd be nuts to quit the EU. Maybe even madder than the Scots voting to quit the UK.

You're probably right, but I reckon it could go either way.

I was 20 when the last Vote was held (1975) and voted to stay in the EU. Many of my era voted the same, but will vote to leave in the up and coming referendum.What I hear time and time again is 'we voted for a Common Market, not a United States of Europe'

What you also have remember is that these people are now over 60 with many retired. A majority will vote, I wonder how many 20,30 somethings will?

carslet

I will vote to leave..

Generali

mystic_trev wrote: »

You're probably right, but I reckon it could go either way.

I was 20 when the last Vote was held (1975) and voted to stay in the EU. Many of my era voted the same, but will vote to leave in the up and coming referendum.What I hear time and time again is 'we voted for a Common Market, not a United States of Europe'

What you also have remember is that these people are now over 60 with many retired. A majority will vote, I wonder how many 20,30 somethings will?

Rich people vote, poor people don't. Old people vote, young people don't. So the bottom line is, what do rich old people want vis-a-vis the EU?

The polls are looking very strongly in favour of staying in and people do like to vote with the status quo.

Graham_Devon

I'm nuts too.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Cameron comes back to the table with though.

They have been a bit of a pointless exercise to start with really, with the negotiations being watered down to avoid humiliation. Thing is, theres not much point in the negotiations now as they don't touch on the concerns of many people. So it's all a bit of a pointless, very expensive sideshow.

Graham_Devon

Generali wrote: »

The polls are looking very strongly in favour of staying in and people do like to vote with the status quo.

Some polls may show that - but we appear to be getting more and more news stories suggesting that the polls are head to head and moving in the direction of an exit.

So while not disagreeing with you, I do wonder what you are looking at. Think it was only last week that the BBC News reported that over all polls, an exit was now in the lead (by a tiny amount) for the first time.

It's taken a serious movement to get to that point too. The stay in camp was always well ahead of the out camp.

chris_m

Poor choice of subject line there. I initially read it as "and the biggest threat to the UK economy in 2016 is... vivatifosi" and wondered what they'd done to deserve that

:rotfl:

Carl31

carslet wrote: »

I will vote to leave..

I will be too

Even if we did, i reckon the man on the street would barely notice, probably just means they would have to get their passport out a bit more when travelling

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I do wonder what you are looking at.

Wonder no more!

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9571

Note that MORI asked the referendum question as a split-sample. Half the sample were asked how they would vote in a referendum, stay in or get out (MORI’s long term tracker question), the other half were asked the actual referendum question. The stay in or get out question had a split of 53%-36%, the actual referendum question question produced a bigger lead for staying in 58%-32%. Wherever possible, I am using questions that use the actual referendum wording, so those are the figures that have gone in my EU referendum tracking data here.


The difference between EU referendum voting intentions appears to be a gap between online polling and telephone polling. It’s always difficult to be certain of course – there are many differences between different companies’ approaches and there haven’t been that many telephone polls – but the phone polls from ComRes and MORI are averaging around REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 35%, DON’T KNOW 10%, the online polls from ICM, YouGov, ComRes and Survation are averaging around REMAIN 43%, LEAVE 40%, DON’T KNOW 18%. The telephone polls have “remain” substantially higher and, intriguingly, “don’t know” substantially lower. As ever, it’s difficult to be confident what the reasons are – it could be a difference in sampling (if for some reason online or telephone samples reach respondents who are substantially more or less pro-European) or it could be an interviewer effect (if people are less willing to tell a human interviewer they would vote to leave or they haven’t yet decided).

Generali

Carl31 wrote: »

I will be too

Even if we did, i reckon the man on the street would barely notice, probably just means they would have to get their passport out a bit more when travelling

They won't need to worry about traveling as much as trying to find a new job.