and the biggest threat to the UK economy in 2016 is...

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

...
The polls are looking very strongly in favour of staying in and people do like to vote with the status quo.

Maybe the worst possible outcome is a narrow victory, either way.

Neither camp will be able to claim that the vast majority of the public are with them, and the complaints will drag on and on, just as they have done with the SNP.

The UKIP vote will probably go elsewhere, and there will be some malcontent Tory MPs about.

Luckily, Labour will appear inept and out of touch before the referendum; during the referendum; and after the referendum. No change there

stator

I'll be voting to leave the EU no matter what the negotiations. A "democracy" that large can't function.
As long as the free trade area is maintained I don't see it having a large affect on our economy.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Telephone polling (widely assumed to be more accurate) shows a large double digit lead for staying in.

ComRes found 56 percent of respondents saying they would vote to stay in the EU while 35 percent said they would vote to leave.

Ipsos Mori showed 53 percent of respondents backed remaining in with 36 percent seeking to leave.

The 17-point lead for the campaign to stay in the EU is up from 13 points in October.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/u-k-phone-polls-show-double-digit-leads-for-staying-in-eu

Internet polling is neck and neck... But was not as accurate in the GE as the more expensive telephone polling.

mayonnaise

stator wrote: »

I'll be voting to leave the EU no matter what the negotiations. A "democracy" that large can't function.
As long as the free trade area is maintained I don't see it having a large affect on our economy.

You do realise that voting to leave will be a vote to leave that free trade area, don't you?

Generali

kabayiri wrote: »

Maybe the worst possible outcome is a narrow victory, either way.

Neither camp will be able to claim that the vast majority of the public are with them, and the complaints will drag on and on, just as they have done with the SNP.

The UKIP vote will probably go elsewhere, and there will be some malcontent Tory MPs about.

Luckily, Labour will appear inept and out of touch before the referendum; during the referendum; and after the referendum. No change there

I expect a solid remain victory.

Labour are probably doing as well as they can hope between now and 2020. They rely on the suburban working class as swing voters. Can we really see Mondeo Man/White Van Man voting with Mr Corbyn?

Moby

vivatifosi wrote: »

Brexit and Brexit...

Per Bloomberg, it accounts for a whopping 58% of the risk. Still worth it?

Sorry, can't get a small section of text to paste on this tablet, but here's the hyperlink...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-23/-brexit-and-brexit-the-biggest-risks-to-u-k-economy-in-2016

Totally right of course......that's why the calling of a referendum was playing fast and loose with our future. In implementing this referendum Call me Dave was not thinking of the British people of course.......he was thinking about how to deal with the problems in his own party. He's let the genie out now and he will not be able to control the course of the debate. Do people seriously think he will negotiate anything of substance. He will get zilch but will dress it up as a victory and no-one will believe him. It's embarrassing to watch him in Europe pleading with Merkel to give him something to sell to his eurosceptics so that they'll come on side. It ain't going to happen dave!

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

I expect a solid remain victory.

Labour are probably doing as well as they can hope between now and 2020. They rely on the suburban working class as swing voters. Can we really see Mondeo Man/White Van Man voting with Mr Corbyn?

I just looked on betfair, it is closer than I thought it would be, it's approx:

4/7 Stay in EU
7/4 Leave EU
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739911

CLAPTON

Moby wrote: »

Totally right of course......that's why the calling of a referendum was playing fast and loose with our future. In implementing this referendum Call me Dave was not thinking of the British people of course.......he was thinking about how to deal with the problems in his own party. He's let the genie out now and he will not be able to control the course of the debate. Do people seriously think he will negotiate anything of substance. He will get zilch but will dress it up as a victory and no-one will believe him. It's embarrassing to watch him in Europe pleading with Merkel to give him something to sell to his eurosceptics so that they'll come on side. It ain't going to happen dave!

trusting the people and allowing them to vote, has sadly never had strong support from the left.

how is a vote a problem for anyone that believes in democracy?

stator

mayonnaise wrote: »

You do realise that voting to leave will be a vote to leave that free trade area, don't you?

It won't.

BananaRepublic

mayonnaise wrote: »

You do realise that voting to leave will be a vote to leave that free trade area, don't you?

Nope.

The threat to us is that the EU attacks our financial sector out of envy. The bureacracy is costly, and the open borders absurd. We should be part of a European trade zone, but free to set our laws, and trade with whosoever we like without EU meddling.

Sadly we will vote to stay in, the status quo rules.