**Don't Buy A House** House Prices Set To Crash!!!

Jason74

Dan29 wrote: »

So to summarise the debate so far for anyone unwilling to read the entire 10 pages:

Some people think house prices will continue to go up;

Some people think house prices will not continue to go up.

No one knows for sure.

We're now two and a half years on from this post, and apart from houses being even more stupidly overpriced, not much has changed!.

In many ways it just goes to show that you perhaps need to buy (or indeed not)buy a home based on what is likely to suit you and your circumstances, rather than trying to second guess something that only an arrogant fool or a liar would claim to know

Turnbull2000

Jason74 wrote: »

We're now two and a half years on from this post, and apart from houses being even more stupidly overpriced, not much has changed!.

In many ways it just goes to show that you perhaps need to buy (or indeed not)buy a home based on what is likely to suit you and your circumstances, rather than trying to second guess something that only an arrogant fool or a liar would claim to know

Don't agree. The financial requirements back then were already too great for many. Houses prices became detached from first-time-buyer salaries long before this thread started.

(and as we all know, political interference in 2005 kept prices afloat, not the market)

guppy

guppy wrote: »

Anyone remember this thread from August 2004? Its actually the 5th most read thread on the Property Board.

I see the OP saw fit to bump it a whole year after his initial prediction. :rotfl:

I'm sure house prices are unsustainable...but be beware of false prophets!

Make that over three years from the Original Post

dealornodeal_3

Dan29 wrote: »

So to summarise the debate so far for anyone unwilling to read the entire 10 pages:

Some people think house prices will continue to go up;

Some people think house prices will not continue to go up.

No one knows for sure.

How can FTBs pay £1300..00p per month for a £15k mortgage, and pay other Bills?

Sooner or later all the ones already on the Ladder will have moved to their desired property, and prices will either come down; or collapse?

Gorgeous_George

In recent history, house prices have inversely followed IRs. As IRs rise, houseprices fell. When the Tories lost the plot in the late 80s IRs remained high and people struggled to pay their mortgages leading to many repossessions. House prices had to fall before people could afford to buy. Many of those with negative equity were stuck in propertries that they didn't want.

This time it will be different.

IRs will not be the catalyst to price falls. Instead tighter lending will restrict what people can pay for a house regardless of whether they can afford it or not. House prices will no longer depend entirely on IRs.

I expect prices to fall, perhaps by 15% per year for three years. Somewhere near 70% of current values could be sustainable in the longer term.

GG

IvanOpinion

I think it is a case of given a long enough time span (e.g. 3 years or so) a prediciton of 'house prices will fal' and a prediction of 'house prices will rise' will both become true .. I love it when people pretend they predicted things which were obviously going to happen at some point.

What I can with all honesty say is that I have never met or heard anybody using their wonderul foresight to mention the set of conditions that we are currenly in .. they all seem to be using hindsight to claim their guess (which had a 100% chance of success) was a prediction.

Nobody knows what the circumstances will be tomorrow not to worry several years in the future .. we can all have "guesses" (which is all they are) however as is this case on the 21st century global politics and fiscal policy plays a much more important role than simple home politics.

Ivan

deefadog

Exactlly, it's like buying shares (will they go up? will they go down?) But the end of the day you can't live in shares!

glennw

guppy wrote: »

Anyone remember this thread from August 2004? Its actually the 5th most read thread on the Property Board.

I see the OP saw fit to bump it a whole year after his initial prediction. :rotfl:

I'm sure house prices are unsustainable...but be beware of false prophets!

Just saw this and...

*bump*!

..sorry couldn't help it!

I don't claim to be a prophet, false or otherwise. However, I watched the Dispatches programme on tv last week, and agreed with most of what was said.

Some interesting points about shared ownership being a mechanism for maintaining the bubble for instance.

Normally I would vote Liberal, but I want Gordon Brown out so badly that I may have to vote tory!! :eek:

IveSeenTheLight

alared wrote: »

When the "buy to let" brigade realise that prices are starting to fall (in some areas,they already have) there will glut of houses put up for sale and as prices fall and panic grows it will snowball into a stampede.

I'm a BTL LL and have no plans to sell, even if there is a house price "valuation" drop.

The reason is that I have bought properties in which the C&I mortgages are covered by rental income.

Sure some BTL's will be sold, but there is an argument that with a lot of people selling to rent, that the rental market will be very strong in the next few years.

So far my BTL's have only risen. Reports are that they have still risen in Q3 2007 and for Oct 2007. Sure they may drop in the future, but I dont believe to be below what I initially paid for them.

Am I lucky, some will say yes. I prefer to believe its because I have bought in the right location and at the right time.

<EDIT> HeHe, just realised I have replied to a post more than 3 years old. Who bumped this old relic back up

nollag2006

Jason74 wrote: »

In many ways it just goes to show that you perhaps need to buy (or indeed not)buy a home based on what is likely to suit you and your circumstances, rather than trying to second guess something that only an arrogant fool or a liar would claim to know

You're being very charitable Jason. These House Price Crash muppets have been peddling their nonsense for at least 5 years now, and show no sign of accepting reality, that while house prices may slow for a while in certain areas, they are just not going to drop.

What I find really amusing is how they use the term VI (Vested Interests) to descibe some sort of nefarious conspiracy by the media and the Government to push up house prices, while ignoring their own vested interest to get a house on the cheap.



These muppets should have bought 3 or 4 years ago, when house prices were substantially lower than they are now, rather than coming on here wailing and moaning about how unfair life is !!

:mad:

Get over it, and join the Muppet show on the HPC website...