**Don't Buy A House** House Prices Set To Crash!!!

dougk_2

Nelly, Great plan!

At the same time why not halve your salary - it means we could all get our plastering done at half price!

Do you think it would help FTB's?

No - it means lots of investors would buy the houses to rent to the people in negative equity that need to move for various reasons. And your pension fund may drop as the money invested in property is lost, companies may go bankrupt as most have to borrow for the property they own/lease, so lots of jobs go too, so no-one employing you as they are not getting any income and so well you cannot afford a mortgage as you have nothing to pay it with!....... think more deeply about things.

nelly_2

it was a joke you balloon.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4360673.stm

Dan29

So to summarise the debate so far for anyone unwilling to read the entire 10 pages:

Some people think house prices will continue to go up;

Some people think house prices will not continue to go up.

No one knows for sure.

frugal_dougal_3

Dan29 wrote:

So to summarise the debate so far for anyone unwilling to read the entire 10 pages:

Some people think house prices will continue to go up;

Some people think house prices will not continue to go up.

No one knows for sure.

LOL

Actually Dan, There would probably be 42 pages but some posts were lost in the upgrade !!!!!!!!!!!

mr218

hi vish patel

since you appear to have read (hopefully all three of ) the farlow reports, maybe you can summarise what he says for me. i think he concludes that prices will plummet. what do you feel?

it is so difficult to figure out what will happen because there are so many correlating factors. my husband came across is yesterday and i am still getting my head round it.

you have had a robust arguement with dougk about whether ftbs should get on the market. while there are many factors for and against doing so, i think in the end it is a personal choice to work out whether you want to live frugally and get in the market as quickly as possible or speculate on it going down and saving up for it. on a slightly different note, do you think it is worth getting on the property market at all in your life time, i.e. do you think the market will go up steadily over say a 30 years period and is it worth the hassle and anxiety

my main reason for this post is to ask all of you if think that stbs (second time buyers) and the rest should buy a property in this market. i feel that as a stb,we have experienced a nearly 100% increase in prices over the last 5 years or so. so i have a virtual profit, which i will plough back into the market again. if the market goes down by say 30% all the 'gains' i have made will be wiped out but i feel since i want to a nice place to stay and am not necessarily investing for capital growth, it may be worth it. i would value all your observations. my objective of living in a bigger nicer house will be satisfied earlier rather than say a couple of years later. is my reasoning flawed and am i doomed to live in negative equity hell.

vishpatel

mr218 wrote:

hi vish patel

since you appear to have read (hopefully all three of ) the farlow reports, maybe you can summarise what he says for me. i think he concludes that prices will plummet. what do you feel?

My personal opinion is that we are in a changing market. Falls are being reported for the first time in many years. I think this will gain momentum and eventually will result in panic.
This graph illustrates how people are feeling, right now, and in the past/future
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v480/vishpatel/untitled.jpg

The media play a large part in this. As soon as Tabloids like The Sun, Mirror etc have front page headlines about the property crash, you'll know we're in full swing.

mr218 wrote:

it is so difficult to figure out what will happen because there are so many correlating factors. my husband came across is yesterday and i am still getting my head round it.

you have had a robust arguement with dougk about whether ftbs should get on the market. while there are many factors for and against doing so, i think in the end it is a personal choice to work out whether you want to live frugally and get in the market as quickly as possible or speculate on it going down and saving up for it. on a slightly different note, do you think it is worth getting on the property market at all in your life time, i.e. do you think the market will go up steadily over say a 30 years period and is it worth the hassle and anxiety

I think for most people who intend to have a family, or even be married - owning your own home is vital. Renting is fine, but most do not consider it long term as you are at the mercy of the landlord if he decides to sell, or raise the rent.

So I think it is worth it for those reasons, but I also do believe that property prices will rise long term. That said, the point at which you enter the market has a huge impact on how successful you are in it. e.g. if you bought in say 1988, you'd have to wait a full 12 years before you broke even.

mr218 wrote:

my main reason for this post is to ask all of you if think that stbs (second time buyers) and the rest should buy a property in this market. i feel that as a stb,we have experienced a nearly 100% increase in prices over the last 5 years or so. so i have a virtual profit, which i will plough back into the market again. if the market goes down by say 30% all the 'gains' i have made will be wiped out but i feel since i want to a nice place to stay and am not necessarily investing for capital growth, it may be worth it. i would value all your observations. my objective of living in a bigger nicer house will be satisfied earlier rather than say a couple of years later. is my reasoning flawed and am i doomed to live in negative equity hell.

If YOU think prices will rise over the period you plan to invest then go ahead. But make sure you do all your sums, and plan out good & bad scenarios.

In my opinion this kind of investment will not do very well if you intend to gain within 10 years. 15 years+ - who knows!?!

pault123

this is an interesting link

http://www.propertyfinder.com/2/pf/articles/sellersViewHousingMarket.do

paul

glennw

*bump*
;o)

guppy

Anyone remember this thread from August 2004? Its actually the 5th most read thread on the Property Board.

I see the OP saw fit to bump it a whole year after his initial prediction. :rotfl:

I'm sure house prices are unsustainable...but be beware of false prophets!

MattB_4

Im looking to buy at the start of 2009. Hopefully prices will decline, but I'll be happy with a steady hold as I like what i think i can afford at the moment! I'm looking to buy a house i can hopefully stay in for 10 years so even if the market is falling still and i dont catch at the bottom it probably wont be an issue. Glad i wont be going in on 100% LTV though!