**Don't Buy A House** House Prices Set To Crash!!!

franklee

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Buying is now cheaper than renting in 90% of the UK, even in the short term, and even with mortgage interest at 5% instead of the current 3.5% average.:)

I agree the headline rates for mortgages are very low but you have to consider arrangement fees and what it reverts to after the initial special offer period.

So one that came out looking quite good is 2.59% fixed for two years but that reverts to the lender's SVR of 4.99% after that. Needs a 25% deposit. For a 10% deposit it's 4.49% for the two years and then the SVR. I liked that one as there didn't seem to be any arrangement fees. Some others have arrangement fees of £900 ish to almost a couple of grand which is a lot for a two year deal. Five year deals have higher rates but maybe the better bet and then the early repayment charges may come into play.

It's quite hard to tell my landlord's gross yield as the house value is hard to determine, I reckon it was just under 4% but now possibly 4.5%. My deposit savings are getting a mixture between a small amount at about 6% tax free (RPI+1%), to about 5% fixed down to about 3.2%. The house price might be down about 25K, I'll know more when I see what a neighbour went for but they did drop their asking price to 20K less than they paid and it took about six months to go under offer.

But the main thing is anyone choosing should understand how interest works so they can make sensible calculations to suit their own situation.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

geoffky wrote: »

the crash

The crash is over, and has been since Feb 2009.

We're in the "bump along the bottom phase", with most areas seeing only minor seasonal fluctuations.

Some areas have already recovered to previous peaks and even above, a few areas are still falling, but for most people in most places, it's effectively stagnation and has been for 2 years now.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Really interesting thread where people claim a crash is imminent.... in 2003 what we actually see is:

2003 = £115,940
2008 = £183,959 +60%
2009 = £154,066 +34%
2016 = £216,750 +86%

Yet the person who posted in 2003 is claiming victory in a later post when prices are around 40-50% higher than the imminent crash figure(ICF).........

Today Prices are 86% higher than the "ICF"

I wonder if they are still claiming to be "winners"

As is posted rather frequently, a stopped clock is right at least twice a day.

nubbins

Love this quote in 2004 by "Diggging Out" AKA another Crashy. In 10-15 years time when prices have doubled someone will point back to Crashy's posts and laugh.


"If I had a BTL, I would sell now. Even if things just level out, you have a non-performing asset (unless rental income is high enough to provide a good return on equity). But most BTLs these days, I think, are being bought/held on the assumption that, long-term, the value is going to increase. That may be true, but it seems to me like a very good time to get out."

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The crash is over, and has been since Feb 2009.

We're in the "bump along the bottom phase", with most areas seeing only minor seasonal fluctuations.

Some areas have already recovered to previous peaks and even above, a few areas are still falling, but for most people in most places, it's effectively stagnation and has been for 2 years now.

Really? The crash in Aberdeen is over Hamish? No....I think it is just beginning ...........:rotfl:

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Really interesting thread where people claim a crash is imminent.... in 2003 what we actually see is:

2003 = £115,940
2008 = £183,959 +60%
2009 = £154,066 +34%
2016 = £216,750 +86%

Yet the person who posted in 2003 is claiming victory in a later post when prices are around 40-50% higher than the imminent crash figure(ICF).........

Today Prices are 86% higher than the "ICF"

I wonder if they are still claiming to be "winners"

As is posted rather frequently, a stopped clock is right at least twice a day.

Is it as easy today to cash in your house for the "going rate" as it was in 2004, or would most people have an easier time joining the circus?

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Is it as easy today to cash in your house for the "going rate" as it was in 2004, or would most people have an easier time joining the circus?

Hahaha it pains you so much to admit defeat.... but you've been wrong for so long that everyone thinks that you've joined the circus...... what an absolute clown.