**Don't Buy A House** House Prices Set To Crash!!!

neas

As a FTB i for one am glad... its finally come.

Whether or not someone didn't predict it correctly is irrelevant.. it will help me and my partner get a house.. and not be in debt up to our eyeballs.

Alias_Omega

glennw wrote: »

**Don't Buy A House** House Prices Set To Crash!!!

Whoo, cant wait for this..

might be able to buy a house at not £600~700 for 30 years +

FrankieM

There are some areas where houses aren't selling. I don't know whether I'd call it a housing crash or just very optomistic selling prices.
Whatever it is, I've seen loads of houses that seem to be just sitting on the market and it makes me think twice about trying to sell.

dudleyboy

IvanOpinion wrote: »

I am more amazed that so many people have been so right for so so so long ... in 2003 I first heard the predictions of doom about a house price crash and wow, after only 4-5 years of significant growth their predictions came true. I think it is spookily uncanny how accurate the doom-mongers were .. especially since after another year of growth they predicted the fall for the following year, and then the following, and then despite another year of growth they still predicted it for the following year and then incredibly it finally came true .. and they are now all sitting back with a stupid smug look on their faces saying 'told you so' (such predicitve powers are only equalled by someone saying 'tomorrow will be another day').

So I am going to be a bit of a rebel and predict rises in prices ..... in the next 4-5 years or so (you do however have to totally ignore what happens between now and my prediction coming true).

Ivan

The so-called "doom-mongers" would have been right far sooner had lenders behaved responsibly and those involved in ensuring property prices remained elevated not operated fraudulently.

If this growth you mention was real, rather than artificial, then the country wouldn't be in the mess it currently is.

I'd wear my "I told you so" smugness with pride if I thought it would do any good. As it is, the country is economically and financially fkd and all I can muster is a weary expression of "why didn't anyone realise?"... including, least of all, the government.

dudleyboy

Imaginary wealth: why the credit crisis will not go away

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/44553/imaginary-wealth-why-the-credit-crisis-will-not-go-away.html

"...
Roger Bootle, an economist we hold in great esteem, recently said “The essential truth is that umpteen billions of dollars have been magicked out of nowhere – and must return whence they came, no amount of financial gerrymandering can obscure or diminish this point”. He further said “Do not expect the current market turmoil to go away easily or quickly. It is not imaginable or fanciful, on the contrary it is the direct result of the creation, on a massive scale, of imaginary wealth in the housing and financial markets of the world, a mirror of what happened in the 1920s America and 1980s Japan”.
..."

How's that for "doom-mongering", Ivan?

IvanOpinion

dudleyboy wrote: »

The so-called "doom-mongers" would have been right far sooner had lenders behaved responsibly and those involved in ensuring property prices remained elevated not operated fraudulently.

If this growth you mention was real, rather than artificial, then the country wouldn't be in the mess it currently is.

I'd wear my "I told you so" smugness with pride if I thought it would do any good. As it is, the country is economically and financially fkd and all I can muster is a weary expression of "why didn't anyone realise?"... including, least of all, the government.

me thinks you miss the point .. if you predict an inevitability for long enough it will eventualy come true .. that just about covers the property market for the last 5 years. I can 100% guarantee you that following predictions will come true
- property prices will fall
- property prices will rise
The skill, that has been totally lacking from EVERYBODY is predicting the order in which the above will happen and over what time period. I know of several people who fell for the doom-mongers stories back in 2003/2004, they sold up, banked large sums of mony, told everybody it was the right time .. today they can not even afford to buy back their old homes ... tomorrow, maybe they will, maybe they won't.

Ivan

pickles110564

neas wrote: »

As a FTB i for one am glad... its finally come.

Whether or not someone didn't predict it correctly is irrelevant.. it will help me and my partner get a house.. and not be in debt up to our eyeballs.

As long as you have the selling price in cash, have a deposit of 50%+.
Speaking to an EA friend this morning was told FTB's after now having found propertys they can afford can not now get mortgages to buy them.

WTF?_2

dudleyboy wrote: »

Imaginary wealth: why the credit crisis will not go away

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/44553/imaginary-wealth-why-the-credit-crisis-will-not-go-away.html

"...
Roger Bootle, an economist we hold in great esteem, recently said “The essential truth is that umpteen billions of dollars have been magicked out of nowhere – and must return whence they came, no amount of financial gerrymandering can obscure or diminish this point”. He further said “Do not expect the current market turmoil to go away easily or quickly. It is not imaginable or fanciful, on the contrary it is the direct result of the creation, on a massive scale, of imaginary wealth in the housing and financial markets of the world, a mirror of what happened in the 1920s America and 1980s Japan”.
..."

How's that for "doom-mongering", Ivan?

The problem is that the Central Banks can - and in my opinion will - magic cash out of nowhere to try to 'fix' the system.

This will do more harm than good in the long run but any government is going to choose putting problems on the long finger instead of tackling them now.

The fact is that we should have seen real dips in housing/ the economy in 2001 and 2005 but both times the drops were averted with central banks pumping the money supply and cutting rates. That's why the whole situation has developed into the monstrous state of affairs that it has today where the fall will be steep and painful.

Attempting to dodge the consequences by printing money puts us on an unavoidable road to absolute disaster in the next few years.

Turnbull2000

Should be good when the misery merchants (pro-hpi, anti-correction)continually and wrongly predict the upturn over the next few years. They've becoming very much a minority, and look forward to taking the p*ss out of their wee cult :j

I gather housepriceinflation.co.uk is already taken though :mad:

Dead_Eye_Jones

Cant say im that excited yet. Houses are still totally unaffordable where I live.

Well, correction, decent family houses. But good luck all you moving your families into a 2nd floor new build box. You'll get a right bargin . Your dream home Im sure!

In the meantime my parents (and yours) are gonna sit pretty in their big old family homes for another 20 years.

God I hope im wrong and I can bring my kids up in the kind of place that I grew up in (nothing amazing: detached, a room each, parking and a garden!). Wake me up when I can pick up such a place in London for 300k or so .

tbh until then no one can claim bragging rights !