China ends 1 child policy

martinsurrey

CLAPTON wrote: »

why would a country with too few young people want to send them out to fight a major war?

are you assuming that forced slavery would be their war aim or would you be aiming to forceably export your old people to the conquered nations?

I'm assuming that a Government that is losing control can be counted on to do anything it can to maintain its power, if that involves opening old wounds to prod your neighbors with, it might escalate, it might not.

don't forget, that Hitler fella rose from almost nothing to absolute power during an economic downturn.

http://www.theholocaustexplained.org/ks3/the-nazi-rise-to-power/how-did-nazis-gain-power/propaganda-and-promises/#.VjNp1fmzJ8E

ViolaLass

China also has an increasing gender imbalance, with lots of 'spare' young men.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

in what way is it too little to late?

does china have a massive labour shortage?

It will in a decade or so.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Generali wrote: »

Too little too late, I agree.

The next step is interesting. It's hard for a country of a billion to import enough people to earn to make up the shortfall of years of under population via the means of forced abortion and sterilisation.

So what to do? The UK has a simple solution, the Germans a slightly tougher one. I guess that China could take up a few tens of millions of displaced people. That's a few percent of their population. It might help a bit.

It is indeed interesting.

They have a serious problem.

HappyMJ wrote: »

The 4-2-1 problem.

Exactly.

It may not be too late. They can encourage immigration. They can encourage their own citizens currently residing abroad to return home.

Nowhere near enough.

A population imbalance is incredibly dangerous, it will topple the economy if left unchecked, and an authoritarian leadership will be forced to 'do something'.

martinsurrey wrote: »

An aging population needs more resources from less active people. A government (especially one with effective control of the media, like China) can deflect that into violent nationalism, blaming "those <insert nation/race>" for the economic troubles.

No matter how big an army, it cannot suppress disharmony from a Billion people, so that 'something' is likely to take the form of collective grievance building against 'enemies' old and new.

That's why a shortage of young people from decades of below replacement level birth rates is so very dangerous, not just in China, but far closer to home as well.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

why would a country with too few young people want to send them out to fight a major war?

are you assuming that forced slavery would be their war aim or would you be aiming to forceably export your old people to the conquered nations?

Ah you are back to being Question Man!

The European powers all had a shortfall of young men after WW1 but did it all again shortly afterwards. We still celebrate the slavery of the men of 1939-45 period.

CLAPTON

martinsurrey wrote: »

I'm assuming that a Government that is losing control can be counted on to do anything it can to maintain its power, if that involves opening old wounds to prod your neighbors with, it might escalate, it might not.

don't forget, that Hitler fella rose from almost nothing to absolute power during an economic downturn.

http://www.theholocaustexplained.org/ks3/the-nazi-rise-to-power/how-did-nazis-gain-power/propaganda-and-promises/#.VjNp1fmzJ8E

how is that relevant?
there was no population imbalance at that time in Germany?

How many wars have been started in the current economic downturn?

are you daily expecting Greece to invade Turkey?
Spain to re-invade S America or Texas?

CLAPTON

HappyMJ wrote: »

The 4-2-1 problem.

2 couples each have one child those 2 children get together and create one child. You now have one adult child looking after 2 parents and 4 what would now be elderly grandparents. Not many people have enough resources to do that successfully so the one child will need outside labour but everyone else in the economy has the same problem.

It may not be too late. They can encourage immigration. They can encourage their own citizens currently residing abroad to return home.

yes assuming that the parents and grandparents are useless parasites and don't work

also assuming that there is no increase in productivity and no focus on the specific problems of the people of the region.

cells

if they can enforce a 1 child max policy what's to stop them enforcing a 2 child min policy in the future if its deemed necessary comrad?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

assuming that the parents and grandparents are useless parasites and don't work

Lets illustrate this simple maths problem visually....


The 4 grandparents being supported by 1 worker....







The 2 parents also being supported by the same worker..







The 1 worker supporting 6 other people.



(No wonder he looks tired and stressed out)

also assuming that there is no increase in productivity and no focus on the specific problems of the people of the region.

The "specific problem of the people of the region" is that there's a great big huge whacking demographic problem in China that's going to cause chaos with the economy and political stability in the region for decades to come.

Is there something about that incredibly obvious concept you don't understand?

Wars have been fought for less....

HappyMJ

CLAPTON wrote: »

yes assuming that the parents and grandparents are useless parasites and don't work

also assuming that there is no increase in productivity and no focus on the specific problems of the people of the region.

People do get old. They don't become parasites. That is offensive towards pensioners who have paid towards their pension their whole life. As we know pensions in payment now are paid by the tax payers of today. There is no big pot of money to pay pensions from. Today's tax payers pay the pensions of the elderly.