Has the stock market peaked?

EdGasket

kittie wrote: »

You make your own luck mr gasket and it isn`t via sticking a pin in a list and hoping for a wish to come true

Only to some extent; it is not as simple as you make out. Let me give you one example. Some time ago I was all set for a software job working on The Taurus project for the LSE. The very day before I was taken on into the software consultancy, Taurus was cancelled and as a result I had no job. Did I make my own luck there? Not in the slightest, events were entirely outside my control and I lost out.

Similarly with investing. You can study and research to your heart's delight and still pick an Enron or some other fraud that can't possibly be foreseen by a layman without insider knowledge. Hence luck comes into it but by no means all of it of my making.

[Deleted User]

EdGasket wrote: »

Taurus was cancelled and as a result I had no job. Did I make my own luck there? Not in the slightest, events were entirely outside my control and I lost out.

I am sorry about taurus, gutting thing to happen. I should have added `most` into my statement about luck.

It is so easy to lose hard earned money, I met people on a stock course once who were talking about x who lost his house because he got sucked into the spread betting gambling whiz, it happens so easily, when people are chasing a rainbow. I lost 40k on a stock once, when the rug was pulled, smaller company, so a good reason for me to make sure the assets are spread around different sectors and into large solid companies. The divi is on average 4 ish % per company, so for me, buying and selling increases the pot to a higher average. I still get lots of divis dropping in, last month £4k, this month a few hundred.

I started with pennies spread betting always with stop losses in place, that was learning time. Then went into buying shares, a few £ at a time and I tended to get AIM, less costs and more chance of a big bagger, onwards and upwards from there. Made my mistakes, learnt from them, eventually got better, took the pension over, lost that £40k by getting a smaller company, made the 40k back by being more active on the market and so it goes. Share deals now are very large and diversified to about 68% defensives and the rest sensitive and cyclicals, none of the companies are exciting, except when I want a bit of risk and then I`ll put 10 k into a couple of companies but I am out of them as soon as I hit my stop loss or if there is enough profit.

I always watch UKX, computerised programmes kick in all the time, so if ukx looks dodgy, then I often get out. I remember being at a big pet supermarket when 911 happened and the market dived, these things keep happening. So I never just leave a stock, my aim is always to sell, buy lower and I always always only buy again if I get more shares for the same money ie the total cost is = or < than the sale capital. This has given me a nice safety net over time

re costs, I only have minimal costs as there are no fund managers to pay and no ifas. I also like being in full control of my money, with no third party involvement

CC how did your portfolio actually do? Fact not theory would be good

Glen_Clark

It makes a change to hear when people have lost money. When we hear someone has won £10 million on the lottery, others must have lost £20 million, but we never hear about them.

[Deleted User]

Justpopped back in to say that two limits have been taken, both originally sold earlier, one last july and one much earlier, they are both cyclical but `safe`, one has a rolling yield of almost 6 and one of almost 4. Safe as in not going to go under. Such an easy way to trade provided the homework is done

I did forget that I always take risk/reward into account when setting buy limits

MEM62

Has the stock market peaked?

Yes, many times :-)

Thrugelmir

kittie wrote: »

Justpopped back in to say that two limits have been taken, both originally sold earlier, one last july and one much earlier, they are both cyclical but `safe`, one has a rolling yield of almost 6 and one of almost 4. Safe as in not going to go under. Such an easy way to trade provided the homework is done

I did forget that I always take risk/reward into account when setting buy limits

Care to share who they are? While the companies most likely won't go under. There's no guarantee as to future profitability.

[Deleted User]

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Care to share who they are? While the companies most likely won't go under. There's no guarantee as to future profitability.

No sorry, I am not into ramping or de=ramping and I don`t need/want any advice. People need to make their own choices and there are no short cuts wrt the work needed

Thrugelmir

kittie wrote: »

No sorry, I am not into ramping or de=ramping and I don`t need/want any advice. People need to make their own choices and there are no short cuts wrt the work needed

Not offering any advice. Nor seeking tips. Just interested in where you perceive there to be value in the market. I happily follow my own path.

N1AK

_CC_ wrote: »

A decent, balanced portfolio would have more than likely doubled your money over 10 years, with no stress or work to boot.

And people would be more inclined to believe the story if that's what they said they did. Anyone can come on a forum and say their investment strategy has gotten an amazing/good/mediocre/poor result, it doesn't make it true or credible. Even if it was true, it gives no indication of whether it was sheer dumb luck or expert strategy.

I know someone whose father's gambling strategy is to bet red on roulette and keep doubling his bet "because as soon as he wins once he'll be up on where he started". He's probably gambled dozens or hundreds of times, and hasn't ever lost yet, but that doesn't make him a gambling expert; in fact there's a tiny chance of financial disaster every time he bets (if he keeps losing until he can no longer finance a bet at double his previous bet).

dggar

N1AK wrote: »

I know someone whose father's gambling strategy is to bet red on roulette and keep doubling his bet "because as soon as he wins once he'll be up on where he started". He's probably gambled dozens or hundreds of times, and hasn't ever lost yet, but that doesn't make him a gambling expert; in fact there's a tiny chance of financial disaster every time he bets (if he keeps losing until he can no longer finance a bet at double his previous bet).

If a the starting bet is £1, with this strategy the winnings will be £1 more than the funds laid out.


If they has been no win by the 10th bet the stake will over
£1 thousand


If they has been no win by the 22nd bet the stake will over £1million