Has the stock market peaked?

Malthusian

"If you exclude dividends the FTSE looks flat" = "If you exclude icing and batter carrot cake just tastes of carrots". Why would you?

If the poster has indeed doubled their capital while spending all the dividends on stuff, then that is impressive, but there was no indication of that.

The graph I looked at was for the FTSE All Share Total Return Index which is up 92% over ten years. An index fund would return slightly lower due to charges, but we are talking about DIY investing where the only charge is the investor's own time cost.

EdGasket

kittie wrote: »

ukx has to go to hold 6370 through eod. Next target 6400 seems a long way off. I decided to sell my whole portfolio of stocks late this afternoon, now I will sit on my hands and buy lower. Really nice to wrap up at a profit and to hold that profit.

Looks like you sold too early; market up strongly today after hints of more QE from the ECB. It's really difficult to try and guess the market. No idea why you think 6370 is a peak when FTSE was over 7000 a while back?? I'd say the UK market is still cheap baring some unexpected calamity.

coastline

Malthusian wrote: »

"If you exclude dividends the FTSE looks flat" = "If you exclude icing and batter carrot cake just tastes of carrots". Why would you?

If the poster has indeed doubled their capital while spending all the dividends on stuff, then that is impressive, but there was no indication of that.

The graph I looked at was for the FTSE All Share Total Return Index which is up 92% over ten years. An index fund would return slightly lower due to charges, but we are talking about DIY investing where the only charge is the investor's own time cost.

Looking at the FTSE All Share theres a substantial difference from 2005 to 2006...infact it looks like 20%.

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=INDEXFTSE%3AASX

load this up from 2006 ..

http://www.trustnet.com/Tools/Charting.aspx?typeCode=NASX

JohnRo

coastline wrote: »

Looking at the FTSE All Share theres a substantial difference from 2005 to 2006...infact it looks like 20%.

Google allows a link to the specific time period fwiw, +18% or there about within the year, 20.37% if just either side.

Long URL showing UK all share index 2005-2006

Linton

If you look at the charting tool on trustnet you can get graphs of funds and some indexes with and without dividend re-investment going back in some cases to the early 1990's.

Kittie's 2006 was near the top of the FTSE100 valuation whereas 2010 was just after the credit crunch crash so it's hardly fair to compare the two and claim one's fund has done better in less time.

From Trustnet since April 2006 the FTSE250 has doubled with dividend reinvestment whereas the FTSE100 again with dividend re-investment is up 50%. It does depend a fair bit on when in 2006.

Interesting that since 2006 all the indexes I looked at (FTSE100, EM, Europe, World, Far East) other than the FTSE250 performed very similarly.

Linton

Also on Kitty's strategy - she sold yesterday because the FTSE100 didnt zoom through 6400 (or 6370). It has today! If only she had waited a day...

lejog2003

kittie wrote: »

ukx has to go to hold 6370 through eod. Next target 6400 seems a long way off.

Since you posted at 4.28pm yesterday, it took a whole 2 minutes of the Stock Market being open to pass through your target.

Aretnap

kittie wrote: »

ukx has to go to hold 6370 through eod. Next target 6400 seems a long way off.

That rather depends whether you were counting "tomorrow" as "a long way off".

I suppose it goes to show that it's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

chucknorris

Linton wrote: »

Also on Kitty's strategy - she sold yesterday because the FTSE100 didnt zoom through 6400 (or 6370). It has today! If only she had waited a day...

Or sold when it was above 7,000, why on earth sell yesterday after watching it break through 7,000 a few months ago. For the record I don't buy into the short term selling view, but if I did, I would have sold back then.

[Deleted User]

chucknorris wrote: »

Or sold when it was above 7,000, why on earth sell yesterday after watching it break through 7,000 a few months ago. For the record I don't buy into the short term selling view, but if I did, I would have sold back then.

Ah well you see that is my personal strategy, I am always very happy with the bit in the middle ie I neither try to get the top of a trend nor the bottom. Believe me I was extremely happy to be safely banking a very large profit indeed. All my limit buys are in place now, good for 90 days and I`ll just carry on living my life while the sipp computers deal with my orders

Certainly works for me, obviously not risky enough for some, depends on outlook, age, pot size, circumstances. This is a pension in actual drawdown so I do have a primal need to be a conservative these days, unlike my early days of trading the dow