Has the stock market peaked?

Eco_Miser

Malthusian wrote: »

There are casinos that cater for high-rollers and will take very large bets.

They will indeed, but try finding one that takes £1 bets and £32768 bets at the same table.
A table that takes £32000 bets, but insists on a £1000 minimum isn't much use to a martingale player.

Malthusian

I don't want to keep labouring this really minor detail, but there is nothing about the Martingale strategy that says you have to do the whole thing at the same table. If you lose £16,000-odd at the hoi polloi table and then go to the high roller table to bet £32,000-odd, the Martingale strategy still works. If you've got enough money to back the strategy that table limits are a problem for you (and not your available capital), the casino will get a member of staff to escort you to the right tables and probably buy you free drinks, because they're not going to turn down easy money.

Glen_Clark

Only sure way to make money out of gambling is do what the professional fund managers do - gamble other people's money for a commission then you can't lose your own.

Thrugelmir

Glen_Clark wrote: »

gamble other people's money for a commission then you can't lose your own.

There's rarely a poor bookie to be found......

redux

I'm not sure what the starting premise of the OP question is.

Is this asking whether there was a peak a while ago and things are on the slide already, or whether now is a peak?

Either seems possible, given that some funds are about10% below peak, and some are indeed at their highest right now.

Mistermeaner

Malthusian wrote: »

N1AK's friend's dad's strategy is known as the Martingale system and is at least 200 years old. It is pretty much the only gambling system in existence that actually works. The catch is that to make it work, you need to start with an infinite amount of money.

Of course, if you have an infinite amount of money I don't know what the point of gambling is.

Catch is the zero . That's what allows the casino to win

Malthusian

Mistermeaner: That's the catch with roulette generally but not with the Martingale system. Even if there were 100 zeroes on the roulette wheel making an abysmal average payout, the Martingale system still "works". Eventually you would get a red and recoup all your bets plus £1, it would just take longer. Of course, you would run out of money much quicker.

Waldorf_Statler

Worth noting that trying to time the market within a pension fund is especially difficult. Particularly if the fund is managed by a 3rd party; for example a company scheme. The one my company uses has contractual terms to make switches within 10 working days from receiving the request.

So not only are you timing the market, but also doing so pre-emptively 2-3 weeks ahead.

Seems like a folly to me. Lots of effort and stress for probably little, or negative, return.

Slightly different when investing in individual shares, rather than funds. I can see the benefit of keeping "on it" when doing that. But if you did pile into one particular share, you'd probably have a reason for doing so and would have researched it mercilessly.

Thrugelmir

Waldorf_Statler wrote: »

But if you did pile into one particular share, you'd probably have a reason for doing so and would have researched it mercilessly.

There's always something you don't know or the unexpected happens. Deepwater Horizon for example. So timing isn't a science just luck.

[Deleted User]

How are you all doing?

Just saying that I have scooped 14 stocks back, not all recently sold, some sold a while ago. Several came good on limit buys but I did cancel some limits on others. I am still looking to buy another 3 and have some in mind. I don`t care if this isn`t the bottom, all I know is that I have increased the physical number of shares held in every company, all at a lower cost and this is exactly how I built my portfolio up. If I had just held then I would be crying into my g&t, thinking of the missed opportunity just because I was sitting on my hands, portfolio spread is 23% sensitive or cyclical and 67% defensive and that is good enough for me. The other 10% is held in long term perps which have been giving me a yield of 11% for the past years