Has the stock market peaked?

ChesterDog

Kittie, you seem to have taken offence or perceived some criticism where there was none intended.

Unless I missed it - which is quite possible - while you have shown there is another way, you haven't shown whether it produces better results, even in this particular case.

I asked out of genuine interest. Investing is something I find intetesting.

Edit: EdGasket seems to be saying that you have demonstrated it, so perhaps I did miss it.

EdGasket

No I haven't seen any proof and I don't expect we shall. Anyone can say anything on a forum like this. But £22K profit since Friday is remarkable. The market has gone up what, maybe 2% since Friday, so to make £22K you'd either have to have invested £1.1m or picked some exceedingly good stocks!

ChesterDog

That's true but - as I know you realise - there isn't the 'environmental' infornation to put it into perspective.

And I wasn't asking for proof of anything (as I also know you know) and not even evidence.

masonic

EdGasket wrote: »

No I haven't seen any proof and I don't expect we shall. Anyone can say anything on a forum like this. But £22K profit since Friday is remarkable. The market has gone up what, maybe 2% since Friday, so to make £22K you'd either have to have invested £1.1m or picked some exceedingly good stocks!

...or it could mean those stocks are much more volatile than the market as a whole, which many stocks are.

Of course, £22k made over two trading days is very impressive if you take it as an average. By that measure, kitty will have made over £250k by Christmas. But of course, for every tale of good fortune that gets shared, there will be many tales of misfortune that do not.

bigfreddiel

I think it's peaked for now so sell everything and buy back just after it bottoms out again.

Cheers fj

EdGasket

kittie wrote: »

Target is 6300 for ukx and going through that should bode well. This time 12 months ago ukx was 6766 and is 6146 today so any ukx tracker would be suffering if held intact over the year. It would have been sensible to have sold in early may when ukx was 7099 and bought august to october when ukx was around 5900.

It would have been extremely lucky to have sold at 7099; I don't know about sensible except with hindsight. At the time you don't know that FTSE wouldn't have gone on to 8000 or more. If you had played your strategy for most of 1980 to 2000, you'd have sold and been waiting forever to buy back in. Likewise no knowing to buy back in at 5900; there could have been a Euro meltdown or some other crisis seeing another 1000 point fall. Hindisght is a wonderful thing.

Thrugelmir

EdGasket wrote: »

No I haven't seen any proof and I don't expect we shall. Anyone can say anything on a forum like this. But £22K profit since Friday is remarkable. The market has gone up what, maybe 2% since Friday, so to make £22K you'd either have to have invested £1.1m or picked some exceedingly good stocks!

My (diverse) portfolio has gone in essence nowhere in the same time frame.

JeDi

Hi everyone, I'm new to this forum and glad I dived right into this interesting subject.
I don't think there are any significant rate hikes coming up in the US anytime soon (well, the Fed might hike a bit, may be 0,5%, but they will probably stop there). In this scenario the market definitely had not peaked, and there is still enough time to jump in (or hold).
I'm even more certain about the UK: with more QE in the eurozone on the way, the monetary policy will stay soft, and the stocks will keep rising at least in the nearest few month. (that's just my opinion, I can't predict the future, but I prefer to hold on to my shares). Although, with all the fuss about Brexit, UK stocks may temporary go lower and that will create some good opportunities to buy, so some cash on hand wont harm.

george4064

EdGasket wrote: »

No I haven't seen any proof and I don't expect we shall. Anyone can say anything on a forum like this. But £22K profit since Friday is remarkable. The market has gone up what, maybe 2% since Friday, so to make £22K you'd either have to have invested £1.1m or picked some exceedingly good stocks!

As you said, the figure 'up 22k' means nothing.. Only useful if there's a % figure.

Also, I would hardly say performance from 3 days of trading is from 'picked some exceedingly good stocks' nor 'remarkable', these are just short term movements. the majority of the big risers over the last few days are miners and defence stocks who have generally had a mixed/terrible year.

Broadly speaking, miners are down about 40% from a year ago. Defence stocks are anything from flat to down 35% from a year ago.

I certainly wouldn't be 'impressed' by someones short term performance using an irrelevant figure to prove it, I would only look at someone's long-term % performance (3month, 1 year, 3 year and 5 year, and annualised) with any integrity.

nb73

By way of baance, I'm down 8% on the year. Maybe I flipped the other side of Kittie's coin. Everything I touch this year turns to less golden.

C'est la vie

Maybe Kittie does it right and I do it wrong. Or maybe kittie got lucky and I got unlucky. So difficult to know.