11 house hunters for every home on the market

cells

kabayiri wrote: »

I can only agree that London property has been a pretty good deal for those who bought in recent years.

I'd like to throw in a slightly different angle.

Has anyone else tried to sell a house in a falling market? I can still remember the experience in the early 90s, and it wasn't particularly pleasant.

Would this process only be exascerbated for those unfortunates who happen to buy into a London market close to the peak? Private owners might slow the decline because of the inclination to stay put and tough the downturn out, but some BTL'ers would just cut their losses and get out.

There are always BTLers selling and buying. Currently nationally it seems the BTLers are buying 200,000 units a year more than they are selling but they are definitely selling too

You don't need BTL or owners to sell for prices to fall you just need them to stop buying. This happened from mid 2008-2011 as mortgage restrictions stopped lots of potential buyers from buying and both prices and more so volumes dropped

Excluding another banking crisis I don't see why enough people would stop buying to reduce prices.


Not to mention we have recent data from the just gone recession. It wasn't the end of the world prices fell a little bit for about a year or two in London and then strongly recovered after the mortgage market was restored

Why would any future recession be much worse than the one gone by?

kabayiri

cells wrote: »

...
Why would any future recession be much worse than the one gone by?

It certainly felt different to the previous recession at the end of the 80s.

There was a lot more government intervention. Friends who worked in an expanded Public Sector made comment that they didn't really feel like we were in a recession.

I wonder if the answer to your question comes down to how well we can cushion the effects of future recessions?

Thrugelmir

lisyloo wrote: »

Do you believe that there is a point where people say "F** this for a game of soldiers" and move out of London to take up other options? e.g. move up North.
If so, how far are we off that point?

People have been moving out west for years. London has long commanded a premium.

zagubov

kabayiri wrote: »

It certainly felt different to the previous recession at the end of the 80s.

There was a lot more government intervention. Friends who worked in an expanded Public Sector made comment that they didn't really feel like we were in a recession.

I wonder if the answer to your question comes down to how well we can cushion the effects of future recessions?

We nearly bought in the late 80s and are glad we didn't. We didn't buy till the early 90s. We're on our third mortgaged/owned house. We did live as tenants at one stage while renting out our house to other tenants and I can see why people wouldn't rent for the long term if they could own instead.

My kids are being educated in London and my job is there too. I earn very little more than I would in the rest of the UK and we can only afford our house because of the timings of our house moves which were fortuitous rather than timed to exploit house rises.

It bothers me how London will meet its needs for infrastructure when my generation are history. In my last job most of the staff put up with rented accommodation until they wanted to start families and then they scarpered to the midlands and the north.

Mistermeaner

zagubov wrote: »

It bothers me how London will meet its needs for infrastructure when my generation are history. In my last job most of the staff put up with rented accommodation until they wanted to start families and then they scarpered to the midlands and the north.

Not that I think it's good but that does work. London can be a place for young workers - not for families and home owners. Looking in from outside I've no idea why anyone would want to raise kids in London anyway, regardless of house price.

Part of the answer for London would be the turf out the non working and use the space to house key workers. Quite how that can be achieved I'm not sure.

michaels

Mistermeaner wrote: »

Not that I think it's good but that does work. London can be a place for young workers - not for families and home owners. Looking in from outside I've no idea why anyone would want to raise kids in London anyway, regardless of house price.

Part of the answer for London would be the turf out the non working and use the space to house key workers. Quite how that can be achieved I'm not sure.

Benefits cap.

Mistermeaner

michaels wrote: »

Benefits cap.

Does that work when council tennancies are on unrealistically low rents?

I genuinely don't know but assume if someone is in a property that is paid for by hb to the council at 200/month where it's market value would be 1000/month which figure is used in calculating threshold to cap? I fear the former

lisyloo

People have been moving out west for years.

I agree, but there does come a point where commuting isn't feasible either time and/or cost wise.
Yes some people can work from home some of time, but there is still a limit and the limit is what I'm asking about.

padington

Mistermeaner wrote: »

Does that work when council tennancies are on unrealistically low rents?

I genuinely don't know but assume if someone is in a property that is paid for by hb to the council at 200/month where it's market value would be 1000/month which figure is used in calculating threshold to cap? I fear the former

They are planning ending not for profit or subsidised tenancies if you earn over a certain wage, think they mentioned 30k.

CLAPTON

Mistermeaner wrote: »

Not that I think it's good but that does work. London can be a place for young workers - not for families and home owners. Looking in from outside I've no idea why anyone would want to raise kids in London anyway, regardless of house price.

Part of the answer for London would be the turf out the non working and use the space to house key workers. Quite how that can be achieved I'm not sure.

One can't but be amased at the ignorance and stupidity of asking why people won't raise children in London.