11 house hunters for every home on the market

lisyloo

if the number of people living in London continues to rise without a corresponding increase in supply, then prices will rise.
The mechanism will be increase in shared accommodation (whether legal or not)

General question:

Do you believe that there is a point where people say "F** this for a game of soldiers" and move out of London to take up other options? e.g. move up North.
If so, how far are we off that point?

chris_m

lisyloo wrote: »

General question:

Do you believe that there is a point where people say "F** this for a game of soldiers" and move out of London to take up other options? e.g. move up North.
If so, how far are we off that point?

Two years I hope - let me get up there first before they drive prices up:rotfl:

mayonnaise

lisyloo wrote: »

General question:

Do you believe that there is a point where people say "F** this for a game of soldiers" and move out of London to take up other options? e.g. move up North.
If so, how far are we off that point?

Won't happen.
It's similar in other countries.
U.S. people live in New York, Boston, Houston and L.A..They could move to some desolate North Dakota plain for a cheap house. But they don't.
The North is too grim to be an option.

michaels

lisyloo wrote: »

General question:

Do you believe that there is a point where people say "F** this for a game of soldiers" and move out of London to take up other options? e.g. move up North.
If so, how far are we off that point?

How does extra rent compare to extra income? Suppose you earn 20k more in London or 12k net then it would seem you could afford to pay 1k per month more in rent and be equally well off?

Obviously public sector jobs you don't earn anything near that premium but for lots of other jobs?

Generali

chucknorris wrote: »

Can you really see London properties going up much Gen? Obviously I would like them to, but I just can't see how the value could go up much more (in real terms) due to affordability issues. It's one thing saying that the supply is low, and it drives up the price, but someone still has to be able to afford to pay the price.

TBH I have no idea.

Prices are crazy but can they go crazier? They can. Will they? If I knew that I wouldn't tell!

What you say is 100% correct vis-a-vis affordable prices but what is affordable in the medium term? What an FTB can pay? What I can pay? What my mum can pay by mortgaging her house?

I suspect that things will get interesting when the Fed starts to raise rates. Even then perhaps capital markets will look to the ECB to how rates should be priced.

Generali

lisyloo wrote: »

General question:

Do you believe that there is a point where people say "F** this for a game of soldiers" and move out of London to take up other options? e.g. move up North.
If so, how far are we off that point?

I couldn't do that in my game and I earn a lot of tax. It took a huge effort to move to a tertiary city.

lisyloo

How does extra rent compare to extra income?

If you're highly paid then sure it's justified - however there's a lot of low paid workers e.g. bus drivers, traffic wardens, shop floor workers, waiters, hairdressers, nail tehnicians, police, fire, nurses, paramedics, cleaners, chefs, hotel staff, teachers etc. who can't all be doing or affording massive commutes.

I wasn't just referring to prices, but also increasing congestion.
If people have to share bedrooms and have even worse commutes than now then surely that's a motivator beyond purely financial.
If you're a single intern then sharing with a like minded professional for a temporary period of your life might be acceptable, but if you're a 45 year old teacher then you probably don't want to share a bedroom.

CLAPTON

lisyloo wrote: »

General question:

Do you believe that there is a point where people say "F** this for a game of soldiers" and move out of London to take up other options? e.g. move up North.
If so, how far are we off that point?

basically this is happening all the time


people are moving out of London either for other jobs or to commute.


however we seem to have an immigrant stream of 600,000 per annum and no reason to think this will fall
although we have a emigrant stream too the issue is how will the population of London change
At the moment it seems people want to live there in increasing numbers.


the effects will always be on the margins: the great majority of OOs wouldn't move so the price doesn't affect them


BTLers will be willing to pay more if they can squeeze more people into a property

lisyloo

BTLers will be willing to pay more if they can squeeze more people into a property

Don't they have to go to the student/intern/migrant/illegal end of the market?
Most couples, families or older professionals aren't going to want sleep in a dorm/sofa/bunk bed or share a bedroom with strangers.

CLAPTON

lisyloo wrote: »

Don't they have to go to the student/intern/migrant/illegal end of the market?
Most couples, families or older professionals aren't going to want sleep in a dorm/sofa/bunk bed or share a bedroom with strangers.

indeed so

it's unlikely that many older professional will want/need to buy in london as they will already have a home

the increase in price will be achieved by BTLers and of course families etc buying smaller properties until demand stabalises or declines