11 house hunters for every home on the market

kabayiri

The phrase "house hunter" is interesting.

I'd suggest they are not really hunters, are they?

They don't go around with oversized nets, or set traps for unsuspecting semi-detached houses.

11 house hunters per property does suggest they could operate in packs though.

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

I've been to a few BBQ's over the summer where there's been the unwelcome return of bores detailing their investment acumen by pointing out the house they've lived in for years has increased in value. I bet the home owners dinner parties have been a frenzy of groin thrusting for a while now.
...

Beneficiary of house price increase -> Wise Investor

Victim of house price crash -> Unlucky "hard worker" who has fallen victim to hard times brought on by this lot in government.

PasturesNew

If I register at 11 estate agents as a potential buyer .... am I:
► 1 buyer?
► 11 buyers?

cells

lisyloo wrote: »

General question:

Do you believe that there is a point where people say "F** this for a game of soldiers" and move out of London to take up other options? e.g. move up North.
If so, how far are we off that point?

That's a continuous process that's been going on for over a decade.

London needs to continuously get more expensive relative to the rest of England for the process to continue

wotsthat

PasturesNew wrote: »

If I register at 11 estate agents as a potential buyer .... am I:
► 1 buyer?
► 11 buyers?

You'd be one house hunter but looking to buy in an area with lots of estate agents.

caronoel

What I have seen is people selling up In London and moving well out into Surrey and Sussex but keeping a pied a terrestrial in the city to cover them if they need to work late or even just fancy coming up to London to see a show or something.

I definitely have seen a lot of my peers moving out from Richmond, Fulham, Clapham etc to get the benefit of country life

I know that's what both my wife and I did

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

if the number of people living in London continues to rise without a corresponding increase in supply, then prices will rise.
The mechanism will be increase in shared accommodation (whether legal or not)

The average occupancy rate of London has been increasing for the last 15-20 years whereas for 30 years before that it was rapidly falling each year. This is what caused the London boom of the last 15-20 years

Personally I don't think the next 20 years can match the last 20 years for London. It will go up but not as much

cells

chucknorris wrote: »

Can you really see London properties going up much Gen? Obviously I would like them to, but I just can't see how the value could go up much more (in real terms) due to affordability issues. It's one thing saying that the supply is low, and it drives up the price, but someone still has to be able to afford to pay the price.

Buy to let (be it cash or mortgage) can continue to drive up London prices until the net yeild is closer to the 3% mark for the lower end properties.

Of course that means London will need to shrink its owner pool and become more and more renters even though its already over 50 percent renters.

My view is the last 3-4 years in London prices boomed very rapidly so the next 3 years will be more calm but still go up. However I do feel prices are truly expensive now in London. when someone in the city getting paid £100,000 wage can't afford a three bed terrace council house in z2 makes me think we are in the upper ranges if prices.

cells

lisyloo wrote: »

If you're highly paid then sure it's justified - however there's a lot of low paid workers e.g. bus drivers, traffic wardens, shop floor workers, waiters, hairdressers, nail tehnicians, police, fire, nurses, paramedics, cleaners, chefs, hotel staff, teachers etc. who can't all be doing or affording massive commutes.

I wasn't just referring to prices, but also increasing congestion.
If people have to share bedrooms and have even worse commutes than now then surely that's a motivator beyond purely financial.
If you're a single intern then sharing with a like minded professional for a temporary period of your life might be acceptable, but if you're a 45 year old teacher then you probably don't want to share a bedroom.

What's happened in London over the last twenty years to keep affordability is that people have downgraded properties

For example a friend of mine late twenties just got a job paying £80k base and region of £40k bonus. He can't afford a terrace house in hackney as they cost more than £800k. Even a ex council house at £500k plus is out of the question. However he can afford a two bedroom flat at £450k. And maybe ten years from now someone in Hus position can afford a 2 bed council or a 1 bed private flat?

So the same people can often afford to buy in London they just can afford one two or three steps down the ladder

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

TBH I have no idea.

Prices are crazy but can they go crazier? They can. Will they? If I knew that I wouldn't tell!

What you say is 100% correct vis-a-vis affordable prices but what is affordable in the medium term? What an FTB can pay? What I can pay? What my mum can pay by mortgaging her house?

I suspect that things will get interesting when the Fed starts to raise rates. Even then perhaps capital markets will look to the ECB to how rates should be priced.

I must admit they are currently much higher than I anticipated that they would be a few years ago, so I keep getting constantly surprised, so I obviously have no idea either.