HPC thread of the week

cells

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Do you think buying in "most of the rest of the country that is cheap", or however you put it, around 2007 made sense?

it depends what you were after.

As a geared investment, it would have been a poor return to buy in the half of the country that is cheap (NE NW WM EM Y&H). You would have been much better off buying in London or the SE

However to live in it probably was not a bad idea. You would be down on capital value but enjoyed nearly a decade of low mortgage payments and have owned for a decade rather than rented which has some value even if to you it does not


BTW we need to see what happens over the next 5 years. We may find that these cheap regions where it costs only 2-4 x wages will grow in price very rapidly (as they did in 2000-2004) and the picture may look different in 2020

cells

westernpromise wrote: »

If anyone's interested these are my raw numbers from above:


value annual rent yield hypo 100% mortgage start interest principal balance cashflow diff renting over buying
2004 425,000 22,100 5.2% 475,575 4.50% £425,000 £18,932 £9,415 £415,585 £443,932 -6,247
2005 453,475 22,100 4.9% 505,958 4.50% £415,585 £18,500 £9,848 £405,737 £462,432 -6,247
2006 483,858 24,700 5.1% 560,476 4.75% £405,737 £19,057 £9,972 £395,765 £481,490 -4,329
2007 516,276 24,700 4.8% 619,767 4.75% £395,765 £18,573 £10,456 £385,309 £500,063 -4,329
2008 550,867 24,700 4.5% 681,375 3.79% £385,309 £14,406 £11,439 £373,870 £514,469 -1,145
2009 587,775 27,000 4.6% 745,456 1.29% £373,870 £4,726 £16,493 £357,377 £519,194 5,781
2010 627,156 27,000 4.3% 814,475 1.29% £357,377 £4,512 £16,707 £340,670 £523,706 5,781
2011 669,175 27,000 4.0% 886,310 1.29% £340,670 £4,295 £16,924 £323,747 £528,001 5,781
2012 714,010 27,000 3.8% 961,149 1.29% £323,747 £4,075 £17,143 £306,603 £532,076 5,781
2013 761,849 30,000 3.9% 1,039,193 1.29% £306,603 £3,853 £17,366 £289,238 £535,929 8,781
2014 812,893 30,000 3.7% 1,123,656 1.29% £289,238 £3,627 £17,591 £271,646 £539,556 8,781
2015 867,356 30,000 3.5% 1,211,769 1.29% £271,646 £3,399 £17,819 £253,827 £542,955 8,781
2016 925,469 28,800 1,303,776 1.29% £253,827 £3,168 £18,051 £235,776 £546,123 7,581
2017 987,476

thanks, just a tip if you put it into say excel (or any free alternative) and take a screenshot (of just the table, not of the whole screen) and post that it will be easer to follow/read. no need to do it this time just for future posts with lots of data like that

cells

the problem with analysing things that impact upon yourself is that you will fall pray to a lot of confirmation bias.

That is to say if you think house prices are high you will go and find evidence to suggest that is the case and a lot of nutters on the internet to back up your views

The same is true if you think house prices will go up you will likely pay a little more attention to the data confirming that.


The only slight difference between the two groups is that people who see upside are only betting on flat to increasing (even if a tiny bit) prices whereas people who see a downside are betting on prices falling 20%-80%.

westernpromise

cells wrote: »

thanks, just a tip if you put it into say excel (or any free alternative) and take a screenshot (of just the table, not of the whole screen) and post that it will be easer to follow/read. no need to do it this time just for future posts with lots of data like that

Thanks for the tip. I am posting via a work PC that won'd display the page properly - something to do with the version of the browser (which I can't change).

Sibley

The no interest rise will rattle their cages.....

Popcorn at the ready....

mwpt

Another one bites the dust:



I did some searching and again this poster seems to have had a run in with TheCountOfNowhere. I assume TCON just thinks anyone who doesn't agree with him is a troll and reports them. Mods then ban willy nilly.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/203556-are-the-shires-crashing/page-19#entry1102730885

Crashy_Time

mwpt wrote: »

Another one bites the dust:



I did some searching and again this poster seems to have had a run in with TheCountOfNowhere. I assume TCON just thinks anyone who doesn't agree with him is a troll and reports them. Mods then ban willy nilly.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/203556-are-the-shires-crashing/page-19#entry1102730885

Which sock puppet, sorry poster, do you mean, the one posting or the one banned?

mwpt

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Which sock puppet, sorry poster, do you mean, the one posting or the one banned?

On second thoughts, maybe I was a little harsh on TCON. My guess, this is the very post that got king_of_stretham banned.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207774-buy-to-let-investors-to-challenge-tax-hike-in-court-merged-threads/?p=1102855021

You'll also have noted that all subsequent posts by the new user and responses to it have been removed.

Your subconscious knows how that site works crashy. You know you're listening to carefully selected and groomed views. You just can't take the next step of admitting it to yourself consciously.

TheeMaskedTurnip

mwpt wrote: »

On second thoughts, maybe I was a little harsh on TCON. My guess, this is the very post that got king_of_stretham banned.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/207774-buy-to-let-investors-to-challenge-tax-hike-in-court-merged-threads/?p=1102855021

You'll also have noted that all subsequent posts by the new user and responses to it have been removed.

Your subconscious knows how that site works crashy. You know you're listening to carefully selected and groomed views. You just can't take the next step of admitting it to yourself consciously.

I think it's called confirmation bias. Crashy would do well to look it up.

TheeMaskedTurnip

The bitter HPC goons are now laying into new first time buyers queueing up to buy their first dream home and take their first crucial steps onto the housing ladder. These prize twits will never be happy seeing others knuckling down and getting on with their lives.

Bitter and twisted thread:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/208159-300-people-camp-out-in-cold-weather-to-buy-29-homes/page-1