Corbynomics: A Dystopia

antrobus

mystic_trev wrote: »

Fairly pointless, excuse the pun. What were the Polls before the last Election, and who ended up with a majority?

It's rairly pointless because;

(1) it isn't a statistically different result from last month's ICM poll
(2) a 6% lead was perfectly good enough for a Conservative majority in May
(3) who gives a f**k about a poll held four and a half years before the next GE

antrobus

gadgetmind wrote: »

It's called "group polarisation".

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Going-Extremes-Minds-Unite-Divide/dp/0199754128

"evidence that shows that when like-minded people gather in groups, they tend to become more extreme in their views than they were before"

Labour risk flying to the left at a *very* rate of knots as they all desperately try to fit in while eating their own dog food.

Yes, and the interesting thing is that the whole internet thing makes group polarisation all that more prevalent. Polarisation is practically coded in.

http://www.theguardian.com/media-network/media-network-blog/2014/may/13/internet-confirmation-bias

kinger101

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I would like to be a fly on the wall when Cameron sees that.

And as we all now know, these opinion polls are incredibly reliable.

gadgetmind

antrobus wrote: »

Yes, and the interesting thing is that the whole internet thing makes group polarisation all that more prevalent. Polarisation is practically coded in.

Witness the extreme left twitteratis' shock that Labour lost, big time. Your mates all agreed with you (though some dodgy ones were slightly more left)
yet the rest of the country though that balancing the budget was a wee bit more important than strikers' right. Sorry about that.

setmefree2

Tromking wrote: »

Thoroughly chuffed with the McConnell appointment, he spoke at a rally my Union organised last year. Old School Labour but like Corbyn a decent man.

Decent men don't support terrorists.

Decent men don't fraternize with people who want to stone gays and women.

Decent men don't support our enemies killing British troops.

Decent men don't think it's a good idea to assassinate a democratically elected Prime Minister and her cabinet.

These men are not decent men - your thinking (and there's) is strangely warped.

You (and they) are deluded and full of hubris.

setmefree2

.string. wrote: »

My speculation is that the large influx of Labour Party Members were left of left wing and this is why Corbyn won. .

The results show supporters paying £3 to vote were to the left of the full party members and largely signed up to support Corbyn. 83% voted for Corbyn versus 49% of labour members.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34221155

setmefree2

Tromking wrote: »

15500 new Labour Party members in 24hrs........Hmmmmm.

How many have left?

I'm guessing all the ones with money.

setmefree2

antrobus wrote: »

Why?

The latest ICM/Guardian poll shows a slight drop in the Conservative (38%) share of the vote, with newly elected Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn enjoying an immediate honeymoon boost of 1-point (32%), which of course, is most likely to be a function of normal sampling variation.

http://www.icmunlimited.com/media-centre/media-center/icm-guardian-poll

All Poll results since the election.

13 Aug3833 6 15 Con +5
13 Aug4029 8 13 Con +11
9 Aug4031 7 10 Con +9
26 Jul4028 7 10 Con +12
20 Jul3731 10 9 Con +6
12 Jul3834 6 13 Con +4
28 Jun3927 9 11 Con +12
16 Jun3930 9 8 Con +9
14 Jun3731 8 13 Con +6
31 May4129 8 10 Con +12
26 May4130 7 13 Con +11
9 May4031 6 12 Con +9

I think we can safely say the Conservatives are in the lead.

setmefree2

gadgetmind wrote: »

The lack of peace was caused by the IRA and the peace we have now is because they've (mostly) stopped killing people. So, we're supposed to thank them for stopping killing people and turn a blind eye to them choosing to do it in the first place?

And they only really stopped killing because of 9/11. The Ealing bomb was 3 August 2001 - 37 days before 9/11.

My guess is that the bombings would have continued if it wasn't for 9/11.

Generali

setmefree2 wrote: »

And they only really stopped killing because of 9/11. The Ealing bomb was 3 August 2001 - 37 days before 9/11.

My guess is that the bombings would have continued if it wasn't for 9/11.

The Americans were obliged to stop funding the IRA after 9/11. The IRA would have had to rely on protection rackets and drug dealing alone to fund their activities.