Corbynomics: A Dystopia

setmefree2

gadgetmind wrote: »

As it happens, I think Oldham is excellent news because, 1) Farage is just marginally less fit toe be PM than Corbyn (but not much in it TBH), 2) This win makes it more likely that Labour will have Corbyn around until 2020 (but not 2021!)

Agree.

Turnout was so low - 40%. Down from 60% at the GE.

Only 27,706 people bothered to vote! So I'm not sure what this tells us other than the majority of voters in Oldham West are apathetic.

25% of the voting population of Oldham West are Asian so I make that about 17,316 ish people. If they all voted - then 100% of the vote could have come from the Asian population - Jim McMahon got 17,209 votes.

I'm guessing that Labour's white working class vote collapsed in Oldham. That is, they stayed at home or they voted for the other parties.

mforr64

setmefree2 wrote: »

Agree.

Turnout was so low - 40%. Down from 60% at the GE.

Only 27,706 people bothered to vote! So I'm not sure what this tells us other than the majority of voters in Oldham West are apathetic.

You interpret it the way you want. I'm back to work on Monday. We see and hear what we want. My niece ( married to a GS employee - Goldman Sachs to you & no - he gets bonuses) is backing JC. What the hell is going on there! Only since the war vote though. Lives in Central London - go analyse that one then.

setmefree2

mforr64 wrote: »

My niece ( married to a GS employee - Goldman Sachs to you & no - he gets bonuses) is backing JC. What the hell is going on there! Only since the war vote though. Lives in Central London - go analyse that one then.

I'm sure he'll wise up when he realizes how much tax he's expected to contribute to The Corbyn Utopia.

Moby

setmefree2 wrote: »

Agree.

Turnout was so low - 40%. Down from 60% at the GE.

Only 27,706 people bothered to vote! So I'm not sure what this tells us other than the majority of voters in Oldham West are apathetic.

25% of the voting population of Oldham West are Asian so I make that about 17,316 ish people. If they all voted - then 100% of the vote could have come from the Asian population - Jim McMahon got 17,209 votes.

I'm guessing that Labour's white working class vote collapsed in Oldham. That is, they stayed at home or they voted for the other parties.

Didn't McMahon's share of the vote increase though?

cells

Moby wrote: »

Didn't McMahon's share of the vote increase though?

A swing of 7.5% to team red

a lot can happen in four years time. right now corybn is too honest saying what he thinks and actually answering interviewers questions rather than the trained politicians who dodge everything and only talk about what is acceptable. he has a couple of years to sharpen up and become a practised politician

Also I figure if he says before the election that he will definitely only run for one term due to his age its more likely that they will vote for him and say whats the worse that can happen in 4 years before another labour leader takes the head

Generali

Moby wrote: »

Didn't McMahon's share of the vote increase though?

It did.

I'd be wary of taking too much from a by election especially on a very low turnout. Fewer people voted Labour but a larger proportion of people that voted went for Labour.

If Labour couldn't hold Oldham then they would be in all sorts of trouble.

Generali

cells wrote: »

A swing of 7.5% to team red

a lot can happen in four years time. right now corybn is too honest saying what he thinks and actually answering interviewers questions rather than the trained politicians who dodge everything and only talk about what is acceptable. he has a couple of years to sharpen up and become a practised politician

Also I figure if he says before the election that he will definitely only run for one term due to his age its more likely that they will vote for him and say whats the worse that can happen in 4 years before another labour leader takes the head

A swing of 3.8% to Labour.

cells

Generali wrote: »

A swing of 3.8% to Labour.

my mistake, 7.5% more votes but a 3.8% swing

Thrugelmir

cells wrote: »

A swing of 7.5% to team red

Is it a swing when the turnout drops?

Must concern Labour if the same fall in core support occurred elsewhere.

michaels

I don't think it is nothing, a by-election in a safe labour seat in December it would be no surprise if the turnout had fallen much more. I think there may be something to the 'Asian Community Postal Vote' story (perhaps also linked to the amount of news coverage of Paris/Syria) but I think also there clearly were as many 'newly enthused' labour voters as unenthusiastic stay at home labour voters and clearly no shift of working class white voters to UKIP even with Tory voters voting tactically or staying at home.

Obviosuly the pre poll predictions were a lot about expectations management but in the end I think this is a result that sends a message and makes Corbyn a lot more secure - ironic really when he was too nervous to attend the hustings at the weekend.