Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Netexporter

I discovered, recently, that not one of the public fast chargers in the UK are made here. Scandinavia, China, USA. Yet another missed opportunity.

Martyn1981

I enjoyed this article. It tries to put China's coal powerstation construction, and coal consumption into context. It also mentions that coal demand may peak in 2024.

For years (many years), we've all been told how China is building ~2 coal powerstations a week, but I've always struggled to understand that, whilst also looking at China's annual coal consumption, here's a chart, that only shows a ~10% increase over the last decade.

So, it seems, that some of those powerstations have displaced older less efficient ones, capacity factors are relatively low, many approved haven't been built, and some of the extra coal gen is for leccy to power the enormous and growing car/bus/truck/ship BEV fleet in China, so displaces petrol/diesel.

None of this is pretty, but it's certainly not as bad, as it could be, and looks to be going in the right direction sooner than expected.

I won't hold my breath, but I'll keep my fingers crossed, that China can cut its coal consumption from ~2025 onwards, despite growing leccy demand.

China’s Coal Boom Includes 775 GW Of Shelved, Canceled, Or Closed Plants

Is the 1,100 GW capacity of operating Chinese coal a big problem? Absolutely. Are the coal plants under construction a concern? Yes.

But narratives neglect to mention that 775 GW of coal generation that was operational and shut down, or didn’t make it to construction at all. Much of that shut-down older generation used the worst coal technologies which emit the most carbon dioxide per MWh, about 1.4 tons, while much of the operating and most of the in-construction coal generation is modern coal technology which emits about 0.8 tons per MWh.

Shelved and canceled coal generation plants that never reached construction are 652 GW by themselves, which dwarfs the 255 GW that are currently in pre-construction. The likelihood that much of the 255 GW of coal generation in the pre-construction pipeline doesn’t reach construction or operation is high, and the likelihood of operational and in-construction plants are mothballed or decommissioned entirely is high as well.
Still very problematic, and still needing to be shut down, but more nuanced, in other words.

And here’s the next thing. How does China operate its coal plants? On average, it uses them in much the same way that the west uses natural gas generation, as balancing power across the grid, providing electricity much more in peak demand periods than in lower periods. It’s not running them at peak capacity as ‘baseload’ generation.

For 2022, the capacity factor — the percentage of potential maximum electrical generation over a year that is actually generated — of Chinese coal plants was just 49%, compared to a little lower for the US coal fleet. That 49% is about the same as US gas plants. China is using its coal plants to keep the lights on in periods of high demand, in other words, and leaning on low-carbon electricity from its wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear generation as much as possible, just as other countries are.

ABrass

A peak next year would be great news. The reminder that they're five years ahead of their plans for renewables build out is also nice.

Heedtheadvice

zeupater said:

Hi

Don't you just love the UK's inbuilt bureaucracy having such a positive effect on all our lives ... another turn around the table ...

1. Opportunity to 'do good'
   
2. We need to reduce carbon emissions
3. We have lots of wind
4. Let's build turbines
5. Let's export turbines
6. Let's become the world leader in wind & rebuild our manufacturing sector
7. HOLD ON ... making wind turbines uses lot's of energy!
8. Yes, but that's offset by future clean generated energy & helps with trade
9. CLIMATE! ... NOOOO! ... crisis ... timeline ... booo ... hiss ... we haven't got time to worry about that!
   
10. Man holding UK climate abacus SHOUTS NO ... we'll buy cheaper from elsewhere and thus export the emissions ...
11. What's the benefit of doing that ... isn't the climate thing a global issue?
12. SHUT UP man, you don't know what you're talking about ...
    
13. Jobs?
14. SHUT UP man, you don't know what you're talking about ...
15. CLIMATE! ... NOOOO! ... crisis ... timeline ... booo ... hiss ... we haven't got time to worry about that!
16. Ummm ... errrr .... sort of Okay, we'll do that then (!?!)
17. Man wearing suit & holding UK spinning top says ... we can claim success through 'joint ventures' ... they build the things, we import the things & we jointly fit the things ... count the new jobs (but don't mention they're mostly temporary!) ... ECONOMIC SUCCESS ... and all without harming the CLIMATE (You know, the little bit immediately within the borders of the UK that we're immediately responsible for emissions)
    
18. REJOICE, REJOICE ... someone's willing to export another bunch of turbines to us ... REJOICE!!
19. Where are they being made?
20. Where? ... but aren't they the biggest emitters of nasty stuff ... WAIL, SNIFF, rant ....
    
21. CLIMATE! ... NOOOO! ... crisis ... timeline ... booo ... hiss ... They're not as good at protecting the climate as us!!!
    

..... fun ain't it! ... and that's before the newts, birdies & little fishies brigades stick their noses in ... !

Maybe we should all sit back and simply play the "yes sir, whatever sir, how much do we owe you this time sir ... you're such a nice man, a very nice man" game ... ???

Clock turns & turns ...

Opportunity lost once again, so what, it doesn't effect me .... 

Clock turns & turns ...

AGI?, what's that? .... oh, in that case that's my high skill/low skill job gone maybe we should have thought differently about a manufacturing based economy when we had the chance! ... 

Clock turns & turns ...

ahh, the good old days, mmmmm .... are we having a special treat tonight and finishing off that Christmas jar of locust spread with our bread & water before the council 'larder auditor' comes around to check our BBE date compliance in the morning?

Opportunity ... or ... Opportunity lost ?

HTH - Z .... .... It's all real, just read the book ...

Rant over.....?

I do hope not!

Perhaps we should just build a battery factory out of Lego, finance from a dodgy hedge fund, power it by a new Interconnector from a BRIC country, offer jobs to all the lazy so  and sos who won't dig veg or pick fruit on the farms and......hmm is there a problem you at the back waving a flag?

zeupater

Heedtheadvice said:

zeupater said:

Hi

Don't you just love the UK's inbuilt bureaucracy having such a positive effect on all our lives ... another turn around the table ...

1. Opportunity to 'do good'
   
2. We need to reduce carbon emissions
3. We have lots of wind
4. Let's build turbines
5. Let's export turbines
6. Let's become the world leader in wind & rebuild our manufacturing sector
7. HOLD ON ... making wind turbines uses lot's of energy!
8. Yes, but that's offset by future clean generated energy & helps with trade
9. CLIMATE! ... NOOOO! ... crisis ... timeline ... booo ... hiss ... we haven't got time to worry about that!
   
10. Man holding UK climate abacus SHOUTS NO ... we'll buy cheaper from elsewhere and thus export the emissions ...
11. What's the benefit of doing that ... isn't the climate thing a global issue?
12. SHUT UP man, you don't know what you're talking about ...
    
13. Jobs?
14. SHUT UP man, you don't know what you're talking about ...
15. CLIMATE! ... NOOOO! ... crisis ... timeline ... booo ... hiss ... we haven't got time to worry about that!
16. Ummm ... errrr .... sort of Okay, we'll do that then (!?!)
17. Man wearing suit & holding UK spinning top says ... we can claim success through 'joint ventures' ... they build the things, we import the things & we jointly fit the things ... count the new jobs (but don't mention they're mostly temporary!) ... ECONOMIC SUCCESS ... and all without harming the CLIMATE (You know, the little bit immediately within the borders of the UK that we're immediately responsible for emissions)
    
18. REJOICE, REJOICE ... someone's willing to export another bunch of turbines to us ... REJOICE!!
19. Where are they being made?
20. Where? ... but aren't they the biggest emitters of nasty stuff ... WAIL, SNIFF, rant ....
    
21. CLIMATE! ... NOOOO! ... crisis ... timeline ... booo ... hiss ... They're not as good at protecting the climate as us!!!
    

..... fun ain't it! ... and that's before the newts, birdies & little fishies brigades stick their noses in ... !

Maybe we should all sit back and simply play the "yes sir, whatever sir, how much do we owe you this time sir ... you're such a nice man, a very nice man" game ... ???

Clock turns & turns ...

Opportunity lost once again, so what, it doesn't effect me .... 

Clock turns & turns ...

AGI?, what's that? .... oh, in that case that's my high skill/low skill job gone maybe we should have thought differently about a manufacturing based economy when we had the chance! ... 

Clock turns & turns ...

ahh, the good old days, mmmmm .... are we having a special treat tonight and finishing off that Christmas jar of locust spread with our bread & water before the council 'larder auditor' comes around to check our BBE date compliance in the morning?

Opportunity ... or ... Opportunity lost ?

HTH - Z .... .... It's all real, just read the book ...

Rant over.....?

I do hope not!

Perhaps we should just build a battery factory out of Lego, finance from a dodgy hedge fund, power it by a new Interconnector from a BRIC country, offer jobs to all the lazy so  and sos who won't dig veg or pick fruit on the farms and......hmm is there a problem you at the back waving a flag?

Hi

Pretty much made sense until the word 'offer' ... the dictator in me would tend to take a, let's say, slightly more assertive approach .... hungry yet?, there's an orchard over there and they're hiring! ... not that hungry yet? ... Okay, come back when you are, we've probably got some holes to dig & some stones to crush, after-all, if you're so intent on saving the (enter latest high profile thing here), someone's got to do it ...

HTH - Z ....

zeupater

Hi

It's from one of the biggies in the investment arena ... so it must be true !! ....

Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline).

Makes interesting reading if you're willing to interpret the gaps between the narrative & the charted data .... https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html 

.... At least some of the dark lords are starting to see the light, even though they still misunderstand the difference between linear & exponential growth forecasts! .... praise be, let the happiness infest your soul !! ....

HTH - Z

michaels

zeupater said:

Hi

It's from one of the biggies in the investment arena ... so it must be true !! ....

Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline).

Makes interesting reading if you're willing to interpret the gaps between the narrative & the charted data .... https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html 

.... At least some of the dark lords are starting to see the light, even though they still misunderstand the difference between linear & exponential growth forecasts! .... praise be, let the happiness infest your soul !! ....

HTH - Z

Doesn't that report still have a 80kwh battery pack being 10k usd next year and 7k in 2030 - can't see how you can get to ice parity with prices at those levels?

zeupater

michaels said:

zeupater said:

Hi

It's from one of the biggies in the investment arena ... so it must be true !! ....

Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline).

Makes interesting reading if you're willing to interpret the gaps between the narrative & the charted data .... https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html 

.... At least some of the dark lords are starting to see the light, even though they still misunderstand the difference between linear & exponential growth forecasts! .... praise be, let the happiness infest your soul !! ....

HTH - Z

Doesn't that report still have a 80kwh battery pack being 10k usd next year and 7k in 2030 - can't see how you can get to ice parity with prices at those levels?

Yes .... and for a report forecasting demand it does tend to underestimate by more than a tad .... for example, forecast EV market penetration for 2025 looks very much like what's likely for 2023, not much sense there if they want to be considered to be professional, but it meets their narrative, after-all who'd keep hold of their ICE & other legacy investments (oil, supply chain, energy etc) if the report trashed future (short/medium term) prospects to meet a more realistic level .... the issue isn't that the dark lords have seen the light, it's just that reality is starting to dawn on their long standing position, so expect to see regular step change corrections to their straight-line projections similar to the 40% (from 33%) over a single year as depicted as opposed to the recognition of the existence of the obvious S-Curve ...  
HTH - Z

Martyn1981

zeupater said:

michaels said:

zeupater said:

Hi

It's from one of the biggies in the investment arena ... so it must be true !! ....

Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline).

Makes interesting reading if you're willing to interpret the gaps between the narrative & the charted data .... https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html 

.... At least some of the dark lords are starting to see the light, even though they still misunderstand the difference between linear & exponential growth forecasts! .... praise be, let the happiness infest your soul !! ....

HTH - Z

Doesn't that report still have a 80kwh battery pack being 10k usd next year and 7k in 2030 - can't see how you can get to ice parity with prices at those levels?

Yes .... and for a report forecasting demand it does tend to underestimate by more than a tad .... for example, forecast EV market penetration for 2025 looks very much like what's likely for 2023, not much sense there if they want to be considered to be professional, but it meets their narrative, after-all who'd keep hold of their ICE & other legacy investments (oil, supply chain, energy etc) if the report trashed future (short/medium term) prospects to meet a more realistic level .... the issue isn't that the dark lords have seen the light, it's just that reality is starting to dawn on their long standing position, so expect to see regular step change corrections to their straight-line projections similar to the 40% (from 33%) over a single year as depicted as opposed to the recognition of the existence of the obvious S-Curve ...  
HTH - Z

You beat me to it, drats. Yes 2025 BEV prediction looks to be 2023 reality. And the 2030 estimate of around 35% (23% to 47%) is, I'd suggest, massively underestimating the shift - or as you said, linear not expoential.

But a cherful read, many thanks.

Regarding the headline, it looks to me that the large drop from 2022 to 2025, is simply the price correction following the spike in commodity prices for batts, particularly lithium (cathode material). A line from 2021 through 2025/26 looks to be more helpful for trend purposes.

But again, I'm being fussy, and the steady reduction in pack prices is really impressive.

Martyn1981

zeupater said:

Hi

It's from one of the biggies in the investment arena ... so it must be true !! ....

Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline).

Makes interesting reading if you're willing to interpret the gaps between the narrative & the charted data .... https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html 

.... At least some of the dark lords are starting to see the light, even though they still misunderstand the difference between linear & exponential growth forecasts! .... praise be, let the happiness infest your soul !! ....

HTH - Z

Z, thought you might be interested in this, but warning, I'm making quite a few assumptions, but think they are reasonable.

So based on the charts in the article you posted, I think the 2025 prediction of 12% / 17% / 21% for BEV penetration (low/med/high) looks to be roughly in line with the US. This article points to California reaching ~22% for 2023, and ~7.4% for the US as a whole. The US growing from 7% to 17% over the next 2yrs seems reasonable, and Cali is typically a bellweather for the US, which follows Cali trends, just a few years behind.

I mention all this, as the US is the laggard out of China, Europe and US, which combined account for about 60% of all car sales. And about another 20% for the rest of Asia (excluding India and Japan), and they seem to be accepting of BEV's too.

Looking good.

Sales Of Electric Cars Top 20% In California, Led By Tesla Model Y — Charts

The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) reported on November 1, 2023, that sales of battery electric cars accounted for 21.5% of new car sales in the Golden State during the first 9 months of the year and 22.3% in the third quarter. At the end of Q3 in 2022, sales of electric cars stood at 16.4%. In 2021, that number was 9.1%. So, despite all the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth lately about how the EV revolution is stalling, the news is pretty good, at least in California.

When hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are included in the calculations, the figure jumps up 35.4% for all vehicles sold year to date in California. Not surprisingly this means gas-powered sales are falling in the state, with the CNCDA reporting ICE market share (including gasoline and diesel vehicles) was 64.6% so far this year, down from 71.6% in 2022 and 88.4% in 2018.