Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

zeupater

Martyn1981 said:

....

So based on the charts in the article you posted, I think the 2025 prediction of 12% / 17% / 21% for BEV penetration (low/med/high) looks to be roughly in line with the US. This article points to California reaching ~22% for 2023, and ~7.4% for the US as a whole. The US growing from 7% to 17% over the next 2yrs seems reasonable, and Cali is typically a bellweather for the US, which follows Cali trends, just a few years behind.
....

Hi

Agree, it may currently be in line with the US, however the article definitely references 'Global' as per ...

the team’s base case estimate for global EV penetration jumps to 17% in 2025 from just 2% in 2020, and to 35% and 63% by 2030 and 2040, respectively. But its “hyper adoption” scenario sees EVs accounting for 21% of total global vehicle sales by 2025, 47% by 2030, and 86% by 2040.

... I suspect that although they're now starting to wake up to a reality that they've been spinning against for so long, they're still set in the mindset of linear prediction and are unwilling to concede that what they classify as the "hyper adoption" scenario is likely closer to a true base case (ie reality), with a true high end band showing considerably faster adoption than their portfolios can sustain without considerable damage .... 

In effect, this is their prime concern ... investments in just the the oil, energy & automotive sectors in just the top 100 global companies (by market capitalisation) equates to ~50x that of Goldman Sachs and is likely on par with the total market cap value of the top 100 global banks combined. The value of these banks is largely based on their ability to make money by holding, investing & trading in equities in sectors which are, by capital, larger than their own .... so what happens if there's a rapid collapse in the value of those sectors?? ... yup, if anyone's taking a logical approach, they're probably right and for those still not predicting reality, let's hope that they're not the ones left holding worthless paper when most of the banking industry has fully mitigated their own positional risks as well as they can!!

HTH - Z ...

shinytop

Martyn1981 said:

zeupater said:

Hi

It's from one of the biggies in the investment arena ... so it must be true !! ....

Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline).

Makes interesting reading if you're willing to interpret the gaps between the narrative & the charted data .... https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html 

.... At least some of the dark lords are starting to see the light, even though they still misunderstand the difference between linear & exponential growth forecasts! .... praise be, let the happiness infest your soul !! ....

HTH - Z

Z, thought you might be interested in this, but warning, I'm making quite a few assumptions, but think they are reasonable.

So based on the charts in the article you posted, I think the 2025 prediction of 12% / 17% / 21% for BEV penetration (low/med/high) looks to be roughly in line with the US. This article points to California reaching ~22% for 2023, and ~7.4% for the US as a whole. The US growing from 7% to 17% over the next 2yrs seems reasonable, and Cali is typically a bellweather for the US, which follows Cali trends, just a few years behind.

I mention all this, as the US is the laggard out of China, Europe and US, which combined account for about 60% of all car sales. And about another 20% for the rest of Asia (excluding India and Japan), and they seem to be accepting of BEV's too.

Looking good.

Sales Of Electric Cars Top 20% In California, Led By Tesla Model Y — Charts

The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) reported on November 1, 2023, that sales of battery electric cars accounted for 21.5% of new car sales in the Golden State during the first 9 months of the year and 22.3% in the third quarter. At the end of Q3 in 2022, sales of electric cars stood at 16.4%. In 2021, that number was 9.1%. So, despite all the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth lately about how the EV revolution is stalling, the news is pretty good, at least in California.

When hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are included in the calculations, the figure jumps up 35.4% for all vehicles sold year to date in California. Not surprisingly this means gas-powered sales are falling in the state, with the CNCDA reporting ICE market share (including gasoline and diesel vehicles) was 64.6% so far this year, down from 71.6% in 2022 and 88.4% in 2018.

The idea of a car like a Tesla Model Y (£55k, two tonnes, 0-60 4.5 seconds) saving the world from global warming  is just absurd in almost every way. You'd think (the collective) we would have learned something by now. What a wasted opportunity. 

Martyn1981

shinytop said:

Martyn1981 said:

zeupater said:

Hi

It's from one of the biggies in the investment arena ... so it must be true !! ....

Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline).

Makes interesting reading if you're willing to interpret the gaps between the narrative & the charted data .... https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-falling.html 

.... At least some of the dark lords are starting to see the light, even though they still misunderstand the difference between linear & exponential growth forecasts! .... praise be, let the happiness infest your soul !! ....

HTH - Z

Z, thought you might be interested in this, but warning, I'm making quite a few assumptions, but think they are reasonable.

So based on the charts in the article you posted, I think the 2025 prediction of 12% / 17% / 21% for BEV penetration (low/med/high) looks to be roughly in line with the US. This article points to California reaching ~22% for 2023, and ~7.4% for the US as a whole. The US growing from 7% to 17% over the next 2yrs seems reasonable, and Cali is typically a bellweather for the US, which follows Cali trends, just a few years behind.

I mention all this, as the US is the laggard out of China, Europe and US, which combined account for about 60% of all car sales. And about another 20% for the rest of Asia (excluding India and Japan), and they seem to be accepting of BEV's too.

Looking good.

Sales Of Electric Cars Top 20% In California, Led By Tesla Model Y — Charts

The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) reported on November 1, 2023, that sales of battery electric cars accounted for 21.5% of new car sales in the Golden State during the first 9 months of the year and 22.3% in the third quarter. At the end of Q3 in 2022, sales of electric cars stood at 16.4%. In 2021, that number was 9.1%. So, despite all the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth lately about how the EV revolution is stalling, the news is pretty good, at least in California.

When hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are included in the calculations, the figure jumps up 35.4% for all vehicles sold year to date in California. Not surprisingly this means gas-powered sales are falling in the state, with the CNCDA reporting ICE market share (including gasoline and diesel vehicles) was 64.6% so far this year, down from 71.6% in 2022 and 88.4% in 2018.

The idea of a car like a Tesla Model Y (£55k, two tonnes, 0-60 4.5 seconds) saving the world from global warming  is just absurd in almost every way. You'd think (the collective) we would have learned something by now. What a wasted opportunity. 

Actually, about £45k, 1.9tn, 0-60 6.6sec, but yes we do need more BEV's at the smaller and cheaper end. The Tesla model was to start higher, make profits, and keep re-investing with larger numbers of smaller/cheaper BEV's. Then rinse and repeat. The 'small' Tesla Model 2 (real name not known yet) is still a few years away.

I don't think anyone actually thinks that cars in the higher priced / larger segment will save the World*, but it's a good starting point for creating an economic BEV bridgehead into the ICE world.

Next year the Citreon e-C3 arrives, and will hopefully cost around £20k-£22k. As it's smaller, it will also be lighter, but being a BEV it's still heavy at about 1.6tn.



*Just a thought, but perhaps the real impact of the TMY, will be to prove to automakers, that BEV's can be produced and sold, en masse, profitably. Thus improving confidence, and the likelyhood of greater investment and deployment of smaller BEV's.

This year the TMY could take 3 records - Firstly top selling BEV 2023 (safe bet), secondly top selling BEV model, as it may overtake the TM3's total sales before year end, and lastly, it may become the top selling car in 2023 (of all types/engine makes). That may (or may not) catch the attention of the World press and help with BEV acceptance.

QrizB

shinytop said:

The idea of a car like a Tesla Model Y (£55k, two tonnes, 0-60 4.5 seconds) saving the world from global warming  is just absurd in almost every way. You'd think (the collective) we would have learned something by now. What a wasted opportunity. 

The idea of a car like the Benz Patent Motorwagen (three wheels, one bench seat, top speed 10mph) saving the world from drowning in horsepoop is just absurd in every way.

The Tesla Model Y won't save the world, but the technology that permits the Model Y might help.

shinytop

QrizB said:

shinytop said:

The idea of a car like a Tesla Model Y (£55k, two tonnes, 0-60 4.5 seconds) saving the world from global warming  is just absurd in almost every way. You'd think (the collective) we would have learned something by now. What a wasted opportunity. 

The idea of a car like the Benz Patent Motorwagen (three wheels, one bench seat, top speed 10mph) saving the world from drowning in horsepoop is just absurd in every way.

The Tesla Model Y won't save the world, but the technology that permits the Model Y might help.

Nice riposte but that's sort of my point.  The Benz was at the pony and trap end of the market rather than the Landau.       
I understand the arguments about technology but I still think selling lots of large SuVs is not really anything to celebrate. 

Cardew

shinytop said:

The idea of a car like a Tesla Model Y (£55k, two tonnes, 0-60 4.5 seconds) saving the world from global warming  is just absurd in almost every way. You'd think (the collective) we would have learned something by now. What a wasted opportunity. 

The Tesla Y performance claims 0-60 in 3.5 seconds and costs £59,990 in UK - a towing hitch costs an additional £1,090 - surely an essential extra!  
In California they were marketed as out accelerating Porsche/Ferrari etc. 

Martyn1981

Just another big battery story, kinda getting boring now. 

UK Infrastructure Bank backs battery park

The UK Infrastructure Bank has announced a £60m loan to support Pacific Green in its development of a new 249MW/373.5MWh electricity storage park in Kent.

The bank’s financing is part of a £120m debt package alongside NatWest, which will enable the construction of the short duration battery storage facility.

Martyn1981

Article on geothermal energy in the UK, to power steam turbines for leccy, or direct space space heating. Both options would help to spread the demand for clean energy across more options (more tools in the RE toolbox). The article doesn't mention it, but I assume a level of demand following would be possible, or at least economic curtailment.

The use of existing gas/oil wells, fracking sites, or advanced drilling technologies that opened up the possibility of FF fracking, have been mentioned before (I think), but always good to hear more about the potential.

Former fracking site could lead UK’s renewable revolution

A former fracking site in the North Yorkshire village of Kirby Misperton, once a lightning rod for environmental protests, may soon be a new frontier in Britain’s clean energy revolution. For the first time in the UK, an abandoned gas well could begin a second life as a source of geothermal energy.

The transformation is being led by CeraPhi Energy, made up of a team of former oil and gas veterans who plan to use their expertise in drilling for fossil fuels to harness the potential for renewable energy lying dormant beneath the earth’s surface.

Typically, harnessing geothermal energy involves drilling a borehole to depths of about two to three miles, to flow cold water at low pressures through the hot rocks beneath the Earth’s surface. Then, a second borehole returns the warm water to the surface where it can be used to heat homes and businesses or generate electricity.

Unlike fracking there is very little environmental risk. The well is sealed and the water lines operate in a closed loop system meaning there is no exposure to the subsurface. “Think of pushing a test tube into some sand. It creates a completely sealed environment,” Farrow said.

The Kirby Misperton project is at its final testing phase: so far the results have proven Farrow’s theories and engineering calculations. In some cases he says they were better than expected. His team had anticipated temperatures of 90 degrees Celsius at the base of the wells, but instead recorded temperatures of 110 degrees. Farrow hopes to share the findings with the community, local authorities and government bodies to make the case for Britain’s geothermal potential.

“In the next few months we will hopefully start developing the site and wells into real projects,” he said. Ultimately, Farrow expects the heat captured from geothermal wells to be used in local heat networks used to warm blocks of flats, schools, hospitals, office parks or leisure centres.

Coastalwatch

A welcome announcement from National Grid today following horror stories in recent times about decades long delays in connections to the Grid for many energy projects. It would appear ESO are finally prepared to take into account the ability of battery storage to respond to the needs of the grid in smoothing out demand rather than exacerbating the issue as previously projected. After all when generation is high and energy price low battery storage ideally charges in order to sell it back when demand and prices are higher rather than export at considerable loss. 

I wonder why it has taken so long for them to come to this conclusion. Hopefully good news for commercial battery storage operators along with other renewable energy projects.

UK grid operator streamlines 10 GW of battery storage

Plans to connect around 10 GW of battery energy storage projects in England and Wales are now in the fast lane. This comes on top of 10 GW of capacity unlocked at distribution level, including shovel-ready solar farms, onshore wind, and battery storage projects.

Traditionally, National Grid carries out network reinforcements before a project plugs in – sometimes adding years to a connection – based on the assumption that batteries could charge at peak times and export when generation is high, exacerbating system peaks and constraints.

Following detailed technical analysis by electricity transmission engineers, National Grid will now offer selected battery projects a transmission connection before network reinforcements are made, on the agreement that the ESO can adjust the battery’s behavior in certain operating conditions to reduce system impact.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/07/uk-grid-operator-streamlines-10-gw-of-battery-storage/

michaels

Coastalwatch said:

A welcome announcement from National Grid today following horror stories in recent times about decades long delays in connections to the Grid for many energy projects. It would appear ESO are finally prepared to take into account the ability of battery storage to respond to the needs of the grid in smoothing out demand rather than exacerbating the issue as previously projected. After all when generation is high and energy price low battery storage ideally charges in order to sell it back when demand and prices are higher rather than export at considerable loss. 

I wonder why it has taken so long for them to come to this conclusion. Hopefully good news for commercial battery storage operators along with other renewable energy projects.

UK grid operator streamlines 10 GW of battery storage

Plans to connect around 10 GW of battery energy storage projects in England and Wales are now in the fast lane. This comes on top of 10 GW of capacity unlocked at distribution level, including shovel-ready solar farms, onshore wind, and battery storage projects.

Traditionally, National Grid carries out network reinforcements before a project plugs in – sometimes adding years to a connection – based on the assumption that batteries could charge at peak times and export when generation is high, exacerbating system peaks and constraints.

Following detailed technical analysis by electricity transmission engineers, National Grid will now offer selected battery projects a transmission connection before network reinforcements are made, on the agreement that the ESO can adjust the battery’s behavior in certain operating conditions to reduce system impact.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/07/uk-grid-operator-streamlines-10-gw-of-battery-storage/

Doh - although to be fair they might export when generation is high if that is also a demand peak...