Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Mark Carney again warns of serious losses if we don't start to move money out of FF's soon and sensibly.

Firms must justify investment in fossil fuels, warns Carney

A paper pusher trying to tell the engineers what's what

The fossil fuel industry is very secure investment
The reason is primarily due to shale technology
It has a pay back less than 2 years
What this means is even if aliens sent a message saying don't worry earthlings we are brining you a self replicating 100% efficient fusion reactor and it's our gift to you....it would still make sense to invest in and develop shale oil and gas today

Longer term the engineers and oil companies also know it's not possible to shift more than about 2% of oil and gas to an alternative per year. So if a new technology happens or old technology like wind and solar get super subsidised into existing their existing investments are safe because all they need to do is stop building out new capacity and let old capacity run down

...... A paper pusher pushing his paper ideas

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Recently I posted some articles about going 100% RE under the WWS calcs.

This article looks at the costs, and the fact they become savings when compared to where we are today. I've quoted a lot of it, as it is simply jam packed with info and 'denial crushing' figures. I've marked one paragraph with double asterisks as it should be read a few times:

Green New Deals For The World Are Green Good Deals

Fake accounting is not ethical and should be avoided

Where are the billions you promised us if we stopped burning coal in the UK?

GreatApe

NigeWick wrote: »

But, the industry experts know better.

Yes they do know better
Why would Mark the banker know better?

silverwhistle

NigeWick wrote: »

But, the industry experts know better

than to admit publically he's right. Whilst they quietly, or in some cases less quietly, divest.

Martyn1981

Not a difficult article to read, but it contains a lot, and should open a lot of minds to the potential crash that is coming if we don't get our money out of FF's fast enough and soon enough.

Investing In Fossil Fuels = Burying Your Money — 20th Century Fuel Is Staying In The Ground

It’s been two years now since Carbon Tracker, a London-based think tank researching the impacts of climate change on financial markets, issued its finding that 80% of the world’s proven fossil fuel resources cannot be consumed if we want to limit global warming within 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This number has been recently endorsed by the UN Environment Programme itself, and updated to show that we’re on track to produce 120% more fossil fuels by 2030 than is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The implication? Fossil fuel companies’ share prices, based on their proven reserves, are grossly overvalued.

This past week, Chevron announced that it is writing down the value of its assets by more than $10 billion USD. They say it is a concession that in “an age of abundant oil and gas,” some of its reserves won’t be used or profitable anytime soon. They forgot to mention, though, that while the oil and gas may still be abundant in the ground, the time for burning them is already over.

Chevron’s announcement comes on the heels of Repsol’s commitment to “net zero” its emissions in 2050 and the further devaluation of their assets by 4.8 billion euros. So far this year, BP, Repsol, Equinor and Chevron together wrote down more than $20 billion USD in assets. According to analysts, oil and gas producers could wipe additional billions of dollars is assets in the months ahead.

A study from 2018 concluded that, if fossil fuel companies align their production with the Paris Agreement goal of keeping the Earth’s temperature rise below 2°C, their value could be up to $4 trillion USD lower than today. That’s because a considerable portion of existing reserves of fossil fuels will remain unused, and thus any investment in them is the equivalent of burying your money under the bedrock. This scenario will cause enormous losses for investors and the global economy, and the U.S., Russia and Canada economies will be hit the hardest.

If I'm reading this correctly, then whilst the valuation of these companies is way too high, due to their asset values of 'reserves', they are trying to offset this by locating and recording more reserves.

When this goes bad, it's going to go really bad!

Exiled_Tyke

Great Ape - could we just have some peace and quiet please? Your comments are not relevant to the discussions here as this is not a debating forum and it should be quite clear to you that they are not welcome. That said your only purpose must surely be to cause as much annoyance as possible?

NigeWick

silverwhistle wrote: »

than to admit publically he's right. Whilst they quietly, or in some cases less quietly, divest.

And, keep selling it to gullible punters so they carry on making cash. It's why the Saudis want to flog off their oil production.

GreatApe

Exiled_Tyke wrote: »

Great Ape - could we just have some peace and quiet please? Your comments are not relevant to the discussions here as this is not a debating forum and it should be quite clear to you that they are not welcome. That said your only purpose must surely be to cause as much annoyance as possible?

All forums are for debating

Else you can just post five links to news sites and no one ever discuss anything

Of course what you mean is my views are less welcome as they aren't all super pro one side

I understand that but it's not a valid objection

GreatApe

NigeWick wrote: »

And, keep selling it to gullible punters so they carry on making cash. It's why the Saudis want to flog off their oil production.

The median price to earnings of oil companies over the decade has been about 15x

If oil was to be made illegal in 25 years time they would still be okay
What they would do is stop investing in exploration and new deposits
This would make them hugely profitable for the next 20 years
They would ramp down their production and cut off new investment and close their shop in 25 years time

Shareholders would be okay

In fact share holders are perfectly aware that the half life of large listed companies is just 30 years
This means half the S&P 500 companies won't be around in 2050
Does this mean everyone is screwed? No it means it's priced in


People are crazy for investing in BP. If only you were a hedge fund manager rather than an internet fossil expert you'd make a killing...or not

michaels

silverwhistle wrote: »

than to admit publically he's right. Whilst they quietly, or in some cases less quietly, divest.

Cant everyone be right?

Carney is correct, to meet co2 goals not all current hc reserves can be exploited.

The industry is correct, there is no political will to accept the economic impact that meeting the co2 goals entails so the hc will be burned regardless of the consequences.